Donaire hasn't been the same powerful P4P force he once was in recent years. Ring wear, facing fighters his own size, a lessening interest in the game... Whatever it is he just isn't the same fighter he once was. Potentially on his way to a loss against Simpiwe Vetyeka (A damned good fighter in his own right, but still...) being comprehensively outfought by an ancient Vic, knocked out by Walters. Everyone knows the situation. My line of thinking here has as much to do with the opponent as to Donaire's decline. Cesar Juarez is almost a complete unknown, but in his last bout upset the once highly thought of Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr, who was the first man to beat (and knock down!) Juan Francisco Estrada, the arch rival of top tier P4P talent Roman Gonzalez. Even when they rematched and Estrada avenged his loss against Sanchez, he was still once again knocked down before rallying back. Sanchez also floored world class fighter Zolani Tete before being stopped. As far as I know he couldn't put a dent in the teak tought Cesar Jaurez. This is a 12 round fight against Donaire, and Donaire has only fought 13 rounds in the past year against absolutely dreadful opposition. Is he prepared for this kind of grueling fight? Juarez also beat the once completely unheralded Cesar Seda, a tricky southpaw who proved in defeat against Leo Santa Cruz that he's actually a decent operator. He's only 24 and already proven his grit and chin (and solid power and work rate), and has a lot of momentum because of his two wins against Ceda and Sanchez. So, thoughts on this one? Intelligent discussion appreciated.
It's tough with guys like Donaire, because sometimes though they might be overflowing talent like that, they equally are lacking mentally or character wise. Donaire has proven he is not always on his own team.. he is not consistent. Therefore a consistent prediction can't always be made. In this case though, Juarez's technique and skillset is bad enough that, even an unfocused Donaire is far more then Juarez can chew. Dropping hands after every punch or combo, slapping with the hooks, abandoning footwork during aggression. Juarez is made to order for Donaires physical gifts, to where his questionable mental status won't even be pressured or tested in this matchup, oddsmakers got this one right in my estimation
I favor Donaire of course, but Juarez is a real wild man in there. Young and full of **** and vinegar. Just a hit you anywhere, mauling type of bruiser. Certainly an inferior fighter that can make the wheels come off a far superior (aging) fighter. If the fight goes past 6 I think Donaire might get into trouble. His face has become a mess in almost every fight he's ever had (Even against feather fisted Navarez) and Juarez is the kind of guy that'll hit you with anything from an elbow to a headbutt. I think he should either look to land a huge haymaker counter early'ish (Shouldn't be too hard because Juarez is a caveman) or just really get his respect with hard and consistent shots and dictate the pace early. He can't let the much larger, bruising pressure fighter ten years younger than him start to pressure him, gain confidence and walk him down.
I gave this a few seconds thought about 2 weeks ago.....but no. Donaire will be too much to overcome. Donaire hasn't faded as badly as people think he has, he's just not better than Rigo and can't compete with guys who are natural Welterweights.
If Juarez was even slightly more disciplined this would be the case. Its worth noting all 13 KO's came against opposition with losing records, except one, Octavio Hernandez, which then he started getting better fights that led to fighting Donaire. So its possible.. He could always get lucky with something big. But as it stands Juarez is too raw to where his mauling style and mindless workrate work against him because Donaire is gifted reflexively and a natural born counterpuncher. Pressure that can bother him has to be effective and disciplined pressure then the high work rate could make him quit. But As it stands i would categorize Juarez as bringing ineffective pressure... too many lapses that will be severely punished ...his high workrate and tenacity cannot overcome them and will be used against him. Thats what i mean when i say he is made to order for his style, and he won't be tested mentally, his gifts will do the work. The oddsmakers have Donaire as a 50/1 favorite i think thats about right
Saw Jaurez fight and he is going to sleep. What people forget is Rigo, Walters and Vetyeka are elite in the division. Jaurez in the same class as those BROTHERS? With what i saw, NOPE!! he is not even close. I could be wrong tho.
I actually thought highly of Seda before the loss to LSC. He was very game against Narvaez. :good ..and yeah, Juarez could do this.
Easy? :think Juarez has a deceptive record. He arguably only has one clear & meaningful defeat, and that is a forgivable one to Pilón Lara, a 27-0-2 (19) prospect who is tearing up the domestic scene in Mexico. His first loss was a DQ for a rabbit punch on an 0-1 guy early in his career and his most recent was a majority decision. Now, the 0-1 guy did actually drop him a couple of times so who knows if Juarez beating him without the DQ was even a sure thing, but as Russ pointed out he was never hurt by Zurdo, or Seda.
I'm right there with you. I actually got money on this fight the odds were very good. I saw the Cesar Juarez vs Sanchez Jr fight and Juarez just beat him up and knocked him down and out of the ring.
Yes, they're elite, and one knocked him out, one nearly swept him and broke his face and the Vetyeka fight is one of the great unknowns. We'll never know how it would have turned out. Nonito was a prodigy at one point and time but you highlighting his shortcomings against fighters in the twilight of his career doesn't mean he won't struggle against a young stud as he continues to fade.
Juarez doesn't have to be elite. You're missing the point. A decline - especially a later-career decline for a lighter-weights fighter - isn't like an on/off switch. You aren't just prime and then overnight shot. Declines are gradient, and gradual. Donaire had lost enough of his stuff when he fought Rigondeaux to be outclassed by Rigo, and enough when he fought Vetyeka to almost lose to Vetyeka, and enough when he rematched Vic to have it be completely different from their first encounter and need a hail Mary punch to pull it off, and enough when he fought Walters to get spanked. For all we know the Donaire that fought Rigo still could've taken Walters. The smart assumption is that he will continue worsening as he goes on, for a confluence of reasons - so by this fight he could well be hitting a wall at the likes of Juarez even though Juarez might not even be on the level of a shot Vic or a Vetyeka, let alone Walters, let alone Rigo. I'm pretty sure that's what Russ was driving at.
I prefer the Verdejo fight but still this fight can be interesting if the Mexican manage too put a decent fight.
