HBO ratings have dropped 23% from 2016. My look at the numbers.

"btw, I think that HBO is going to cancel boxing." This was my line to the guys in the boxing chat today. I know there are a plethora of thoughts and feelings you might have about that. I find it sad that it could be the case because I love HBO's boxing broadcasts just as much as the next guy. But the sentiment isn't fueled by nothing.
HBO has done a few really interesting things this year that support my theory. I've put together some information so that we can look at things and see if the writing is on the wall.
Lately HBO has:
Allegedly dropped their budget to $25 million
Passed on fights featuring their established stars and forced them to the pay-per-view mode.
Terminated the contract of one of the few remaining superstars in the sport.
So I did some researching and quick number crunching.
Note: These are Nielsen numbers.
Here goes:
2016

Fight Viewers
Andre Ward vs Alexander Brand 742,000
Terence Crawford vs Viktor Postol ~50,000
Sergey Kovalev vs Isaac Chilemba 355,000
Rocky Martinez vs Vasyl Lomachenko 585,000
Francisco Vargas vs Orlando Salido 833,000
Canelo Alvarez vs Amir Khan ~600,000
Gennady Golovkin vs Dominic Wade 1,325,000
Manny Pacquiao vs Timothy Bradley ~400,000
Andre Ward vs Sullivan Barrera 1,064,000
Luis Ortiz vs Tony Thompson 740,000
Terence Crawford vs Hank Lundy 982,000
Sergey Kovalev vs Jean Pascall 2 1,179,000
Number of cards: 12 Number of non-ppv cards: 9 Average non-ppv ratings: 867,222
2015

Fight Viewers
Bryant Jennings vs Luis Ortiz 616,000
Wladimir Klitschko vs Tyson Fury 1,038,000
Miguel Cotto vs Canelo Alvarez 900,000
Timothy Bradley vs Brandon Rios 910,000
Terence Crawford vs Dierry Jean 1,017,000
Gennady Golovkin vs David Lemieux ~150,000
Lucas Matthysse vs Viktor Postol 642,000
Sergey Kovalev vs Nadjib Mohammedi 1,014,000
Tomthy Bradley vs Jessie Vargas 1,121,000
Nicholas Walters vs Miguel Marriaga 588,000
Miguel Cotto vs Daniel Geale 1,589,000
Gennady Golovkin vs Willie Monroe Jr 1,300,000
Canelo Alvarez vs James Kirkland 2,100,000
Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao lol
Wladimir Klitschko vs Bryant Jennings 1,637,000
Lucas Matthysse vs Ruslan Provodnikov 1,234,000
Sergey Kovalev vs Jean Pascal 1,152,000
Zou Shiming vs Amnat Ruenroeng 35,000,000
Gennady Golovkin vs Martin Murray 862,000
Mike Alvarado vs Brandon Rios 1,200,000
Number of cards: 20 Number of non-ppv cards: 17 Average non-ppv ratings: 1,126,250
Comparisons

Let's compare now. Right next to each other.
2015 - 1,126,250
2016 - 867,222
That is a 23% drop off in viewers.
Conclusions to draw

I pointed all this out to the guys in the chat and they started to throw out some ideas or conclusions they saw. I’ve credited them.
Most importantly, I think that the fights they're making just aren't good. I mean, if we're honest, let's just compare the fights. Let's assign two parameters which seem to indicate success. Either a. they're 50-50 fights or b. feature two names that lots of casual fans will recognize. (Only looking at non-ppv btw.) 2016 has had 1 fight that is 50-50 (Vargas-Salido) and 1 with 2 big names (Kovalev-Pascal. 2015 had 8 50-50 fights (Jennings-Ortiz, Klitschko-Fury, Matthysse-Postol, Bradley-Vargas, Alvarez-Kirkland, Cotto-Geale, Matthysse-Provodnikov, Kovalev-Pascal) and 2 big name fights (Bradley-Rios, Alvarado Rios). Another way to label this is to look at these as meaningful fights. 2 meaningful fights in 2016 (so far) compared with 10 in 2015. That alone is a major drop in quality.
Gennady Golovkin and Terence Crawford's fans represent a demographic we’ve not seen yet and HBO is not a fan of. These are basically the type of fans that tune in if it’s there to watch without any additional cost. I think this is a new age fan because Pacquiao’s fans have typically tuned in no matter what. Dare I suggest that these are fans that do not have an emotional attachment sewn from ethnic background?
Dominic Wade is somehow a secretly big star. Top 5 p4p. (courtesy of /u/hommytearns)
Objectively speaking, Rios-Alvarado was just about as successful as any Golovkin fight. (/u/hu_lee_oh)
HBO can't compete with PBC and their free boxing (/u/majesticdean)
Conspiracy theory because everyone likes conspiracy theories:

Al Haymon is to blame. He inflated the fighter purses in a move years in the making to destroy HBO from within! Now he's free to make unification fights on free TV for whatever price he wants!!!!!! This is going to come full circle when Berto vs Salka headlines HBO championship boxing next Spring!!!
Bob Arum, who is HBO's primary business partner, is sabotaging HBO because he wants to move to other networks and begin bidding wars for the more important fights.
with game of thrones budget spiraling out of control as more dragons need to be found and trained for shooting, coupled with HBO potentially making a series about Watchmen maybe they need the boxing money to fund the long awaited Harry Potter remake series that spans 80 episodes and gives us the blow by blow of things like SPEW, conversations with Hagrid, and full length quidditch matches.
The main theory

The main theory I have is that maybe HBO is seeing that they can do away with boxing. Ratings are dropping. Purses are getting bigger. Stars are retiring and or losing. And maybe the new fan isn't interested in viewing in the traditional. Maybe a subscription to HBO isn't what it used to be. Maybe they don't see HBO Now as a viable and profitable avenue for fightings going forward and thus they are going to shed it.
I mean, every since Gonzalez last year, can you think of a star that HBO has tried to create? We used to get so much for the new guys. We knew who Adrien Broner was thanks to the work HBO did. We knew Golovkin and saw him riding his scooter in the park. Right now there's nothing on the horizon. HBO is selling us nothing. Is this their last ride?
I hope not. I know there are other factors to consider, but with the information available, their shallow upcoming schedule, relatively weak fights, and termination of a bonafide superstar's contract, things don't look so good for the future.
What do you think?