**** Kirk's Championship Boxing Prediction League 2016 ****

Yeah, I'm not dropping this, Chris.

You were the one that initiated this by repeatedly whining about my missed picks when they have nothing to do with you, and then accusing me in essence of being a horrible player who cheats and only benefits from missed picks.

So, because you chose to start an argument that didn't need to take place, I get to choose when it finishes. And, that's not even close to happening...at least not right now. Not until I get the time to explain my point about why your argument is completely without basis.

And, that's what I'm about to do.

So, without further preamble...Let's begin.

Since your whole argument is predicated on the notion that I would have picked all eight of my missed picks incorrectly, let me start by breaking down my missed picks for you one by one...

The Sure Wins:

1. Taguchi-Laendeta.

Might have pegged Laendeta to last the distance, but there was no way that the faded Laendeta was beating the surging champion. Hell, I don't think I would have picked Laendeta at his best to beat Taguchi on the latter's current form.

My pick: Taguchi UD Result: W (No KO)

2. Kono-Inthanon:

Kono, though inconsistent, was coming off a career best win and was facing someone who hadn't beaten anyone of note above regional level. Would definitely have picked Kono and would definitely have expected him to stop someone who had been KO'd in half his losses.

My pick: Kono KO. Result: Kono UD, W (NO KO)

3. Parker-Huamono.

This was the pick that I intentionally missed in order to accommodate a request that you made to not pick on someone that I considered a sure thing. Well, this was that pick. I did so because I thought that you'd recognize the gesture and kindly STFU about missed picks from that point forward. Silly me.

My pick: Parker by KO. Result: W (with a KO)

The Definite Losses:

1. Corrales-Uchiyama.

In retrospect, I could see people picking against Takeshi because he was getting up there, but I wouldn't have bet against the champion fighting at home, especially given that he had looked good in his last two fights.

Pick: Uchiyama KO. Result: Loss.

2. Sosa-Fortuna

Sosa had a puncher's chance, but I figured Fortuna would be too talented and would cruise to a wide UD or possibly score a stoppage. And given that Fortuna was ahead on points and had scored a KD before getting stopped, the reasoning behind it seemed sound. Anyway...

Pick: Fortuna UD. Result: Loss.

Somewhere in Between:

1. Magsayo-Avalos

I hadn't gotten the chance to see Magsayo, but he was undefeated and fighting at home. Plus, Avalos had looked like damaged goods against the admittedly impressive Oscar Valdez. I suspect that I might have picked the prospect to win the cross-roads fight, but my lack of familiarity with him prevents me from considering it a sure thing.

Predication. Magasayo UD (probable, though not completely definite). Outcome: Probable win (likely no KO)

2. Horn-Bailey.

I figured that the Aussie might have been able to out-box the ancient KO King and that if he made it to the finish line he'd get the nod on home turf. but Randall still has his power so while my inclination would have been to pick the Hornet, I may have second guessed myself.

Prediction: Horn UD (likely, though certainly not definite.) Outcome: Likely W (no KO)

3. Cermeno-Xiao.

Given the fact that I had made a post about how freaking hard it was to call this fight, and given that I had seen Cermeno fight and knew he had done well at a higher class than Xiao had attempted, I think I might well have called the upset and picked Cermeno against the hometown fighter. I don't think it's definite and might have changed my mind last moment, but in my gut I think I probably pick Nohamar for the win. Still...

Prediction: Uncertain. Leaning toward Cermeno, but not a sure pick at all.

So... Let's take a look at how these missed picks would have impacted my record.

* Worst-Case scenario:

3 extra wins, 5 extra losses.
Total record: 161-36.
Rank: 5th place, still ahead of you.

* Split the difference, 50-50 scenario:

4 wins, 4 losses
Record: 162-35
Rank: 3rd.

(If you want to view this as a default scenario, feel free. I think that could easily apply to last year's missed picks, too for that matter. Chances are, there would have been at least an equal number of missed picks that would have been wins as potential losses on the record.)

* The First Positive scenario:

5 extra wins, 3 losses
Record: 163-34
Rank: 1st, due to UTF's missed pick.

And finally...The Best Case Scenario:

6 extra wins, 2 losses
Record: 164-33
Rank: 1st place.

(That's not an unlikely scenario, given the reasons stated...And it could certainly be extrapolated given my current win percentage.)

So, there you have it.

Given the fights that were missed- because I missed making picks for two separate dates where multiple cards took place and then intentionally missed an easy one to placate you- there is a strong possibility that I might well have been in first place given the ratio of wins to losses.

If you split the difference and allow for the possibility that I might have picked right on about half of those missed picks (which y'know...is only fair) then you find that there wouldn't be a difference in my ranking- which has gone up recently due to picking correctly in fights that I have been able to pick.

At absolute worst, given the nature of the picks, I would still be very much in the hunt...But that's assuming that I would have picked incorrectly on every single one of the fights that weren't lead-cinch certain- and that's not likely, either.

Personally, I think a scenario where I wind up with more wins than losses is entirely reasonable to envision. And that's the reason why I said those missed picks hurt me more than they help me..Because in spite of the fact that I have picked well recently and have climbed the rankings...

(Thanks so much for giving me credit for that, Chris...)

...There's a good chance that I might be in a better position.

So, as you can see, your argument has no basis in fact. You were simply using me as a scapegoat, and as a means to project your own insecurities about...whatever.

You want to do that? Fine.

But don't be surprised when I call you out on engaging in unpleasant and immature behavior, and for acting like a petulant little girl.

Don't be surprised when I refuse to let this issue slide, and to keep at until such time as you realize that there was no freaking need for you to start an argument like this in the first place.

And, don't be surprised when I start making nasty comments about you from this point forward. And make no mistake...those comments can be absolutely filthy.

You may ask why I'm refusing to let this slide..

My reason is simple.

I'm vindictive.

I'm vindictive as hell. I'm way more vindictive than you could ever dream of being. I hold grudges against those who have needlessly antagonized me until such time as they realize why they were mistaken. If they don't, then I hold that grudge till the end of time...and then I hold that grudge some more.

Honestly, Chris...I don't dislike you as a poster in spite of the fact that I disagree with a lot of your opinions and scoring. If that bothers you...well, not much I can do. People disagree sometimes about things like how to score a fight. Suck it up, buttercup.

But the fact is...

You started an argument that didn't need to be started. Or, rather, you started an argument about the wrong thing. You want to come at me for disagreeing with you about fights? Feel free.

But coming at me about missing picks for whatever reason (like life getting in the way) is wrong. And I'm sticking to my guns about it.

So...The only way this argument is going to finish is when you understand this point..and concede it.

Until then, this argument continues.

 

Of course you didn't.

Let me summarize.

You're wrong.

I'm right.

I hope you die in a grease fire.

 

My Achilles heel in this contest is not knowing as much about the lower weight classes. Like with Concepcion I only went with Arroyo because he was a slight favorite, very little analysis if any went into those predictions. Honestly I was probably more confident with the Arroyo pick because Ancajas record looked a bit padded and he lost to Geraldo where as Arroyo beat him quite clearly.

 

Typically my reaction every time I see one of your articles.

(And so it begins...)

 

So new layout huh

 

Goddamn Drew, you've got a hell of a boxing brain. Would love to see you post more round here.

 

In essence, you've already conceded that I would have had three extra wins for certain with those missed picks. Those were gimmes. (There were also some gimmes that I missed last year, too, incidentally. ) Again, one of those was intentional, to get you to shut the **** up about the missed picks. Two would have been very definite losses, I think...And, regardless of what you say, my patterns in picking tend to indicate that I'd be more likely to pick undefeated fighters at home. That's likely another two wins over and above what I already have.

But, even if you think that I missed those fights on purpose (and I didn't, with the sole exception of the Parker fight), the fact is that taking this approach doesn't really help me or anyone else in the long run. Yes, you may have fewer losses, but those extra wins allow for a greater margin of error in the end. As it stands, in spite of the fact that I, too, have picked pretty well recently, those missed wins will make it that much more difficult for me to overtake Pinoy or UTF or whoever else comes along. And, I very well may not be able to do that anyway, because I know damned well that no matter how well I play, there's the chance that someone else might play better that year. And that person, whoever it is, will deserve full credit. As will I, or you, should one of us win.

And one other thing to note about the missed picks. I dropped in the rankings after missing Magsayo-Avalos, and the fights on May 27. Parker-Huamono, too. More often than not, I've fallen in the rankings after missing fights, and left myself with work to do to catch up ground. So, in the end, skipping fights on purpose seems a bit of a counter-intuitive apporach,

Anyway, it's late. I'm tired. To be continued.

 

Dumb question...if the Inoue fights are not counted, what about the Arroyo fight...??? The site was down and I couldn't change my pick...!!! Should not count, the fight was a day before the Inoue fights...!!!

 

It is what it is, I guess...!!!

 

I THINK YOU MISSED A K.O. FROM ONE OF THE FIGHT'S IN JAPAN.