What does Wlad see in AJ that makes him think he can win?

Granted I'm not the biggest AJ fan but I'm going to try to be fair here. This was an abortion of an idea from Hearn making this fight, which I frankly can't wait for, while it could blow up in Wlad's face and he may look his age and end up getting brutally KO'd but... I doubt it.

Skillwise Breazeale, Martin, Molina and Whyte are garbage, and AJ looked fairly rudimentary against them, he's flat footed, he's slower than most of you seem to realize, his pattern of attack is fairly predictable, he does nothing particularly well, his power is vastly overrated, its far from the frightening one punch KO you cold Tyson variety, he has thudding power that stuns guys, and when they're hurt he jumps on them and flurries, usually prompting a stoppage, well that style went flying out of the window when he got too aggressive against Whyte and almost got KO'd, now he has to rely on skills, which leave a lot to be desired.

He at times throws winging looping shots, when he lets his hands go and tries to land in combination, he leaves himself wide open to a counter, his jab isn't particularly great, his handspeed isn't extraordinary, and his chin still has a massive question mark hanging over it, add to that he leaves that chin up and exposed way too much. His defense is far from impeccable, Whyte landed on him plenty in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds of their fight, and had he not gassed and had a shoulder injury, who knows how that match would have ultimately turned out. And now with Dillian looking absolutely awful to average and his lack of power showing against Chisora, Allen and Lewison, that really puts AJs best win and chin into its proper perspective.

He can't bomb Wlad out early, because Wlad is a counter puncher, and you do not run headlong into a straight right or left hook from Wlad without risking getting KTFO, or at the very least put on your ass, he cannot outbox Wlad, whose seen it all, AJ brings nothing new to the table here, Haye, Pulev, Povetkin, Jennings and clearly Fury are all superior technicians to AJ and the only one he had real issues with was obviously Fury. Who I'd easily pick to outbox AJ, possibly even stop him late. AJ won't be able to land on Wlad clean enough to badly hurt him, his defense is impeccable, and in all likelihood someone unwilling to risk getting countered by Breazeale and Whyte, ain't gonna be taking any risks against one of the P4P hardest punchers in the history of the HW division. Sure Wlad struggled with Fury, who like Wlad is a counter puncher and a stylistic nightmare for him, he didn't look great against the spoilerific Jennings, who wasn't really looking to win was he? He was looking to survive. Wlad is not a natural risk taker, so if you fight cautiously, he won't go out of his way to KO you, unlike Luis Ortiz, and even then he caught and hurt Jennings late, so you all would be wise to not base anything on those two performances. Has Wlad lost a step, yes... but has he lost it so much that he can't take a wet behind the ears prospect with a few glorified bums on his resume who brings to the table nothing he hasn't seen before, No.

Wlad on the other hand brings a shitload of things to the table that AJ hasn't had to deal with, how will AJ be able to deal with Grabimir, if he fights and wrestles with Wlad, he could easily gas himself out and leave himself vulnerable late. Who has he facd to date with Wlad's parrying skills which are very underrated? Who has he faced that can actually counter punch? Who has he faced to date who has one punch KO power?

An off his game Wlad who is 3 or 4 steps behind what he was for the Pulev fight, is still 5 or 6 steps ahead of any one AJ has faced to date.

While I'm not writing off AJ here if Wlad is terribly shot and showing up for a paycheck, which I don't think he is, but if Wlad shows up in great mental and physical shape with something to prove then this ends one of two ways, an overeager AJ getting KO'd early, or Wlad grabbing, holding, smothering and countering AJ until he gasses out and gets KTFO late.