What GGG/Jacobs & Ward/Kovalev taught us about GGG/Ward

There are a lot of people talking today about what would have happened in a potential GGG-Ward fight now that the second Ward-Kovalev fight is in the books.

To me, nothing has changed. The variables are still the same, and the outcome of that potential bout between Golovkin and Ward looks the same as it did before Golovkin-Jacobs or Ward-Kovalev 1 & 2.

In the first Ward-Kovalev fight, Ward was able to exploit Kovalev's stamina. In the second Ward-Kovalev fight, Ward was able to exploit some punch resistance weakness to Kovalev's body (which may have been heightened due to low blows).

And in GGG-Jacobs, Jacobs was able to avoid being stopped by Golovkin and he was able to use some boxing to his advantage as the fight wore on.

So, what does all of this tell us about a possible GGG-Ward fight?

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(at least not Prime Golovkin)

Golovkin has never had any stamina issues to my knowledge. In fact, he's finished off fighters later in bouts a number of times in his career (Murray, Stevens, Lemeiux). So this is unlikely to be any kind of issue for Golovkin in a potential bout with Ward.

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Golovkin's two major identities as a fighter are his punching ability and his chin. Everyone knows he's never been knocked down in 400 or so amateur fights and pro fights. There is essentially zero chance to hurt him seriously if you are an opponent, at least during his prime run.

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Jacobs ---------> 6' 1" with 73" reach
Ward -----------> 6' 0" with 71" reach

So to get an idea of what GGG would look like, physically, against Ward the Jacobs fight is a good example.

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This is the key issue, in my opinion, and the biggest reason why I have a hard time seeing Ward have success against Golovkin -- no power.

As he did against Lemeiux, Golovkin fought a bit more cautiously against Jacobs because of Jacobs' punching power. So we saw a somewhat more restrained version of GGG in that fight.

Still, Jacobs was sent down to the canvas. In every bout of Golovkin's career which has been scheduled for 12 rounds, the opponent was either T/KO'd or at least hit the canvas once.

Turning to a potential GGG-Ward bout, then, I see these things:

- Ward goes down at least once in the fight, and is potentially stopped

- GGG likely fights Ward as he did Brook, with no concern for Ward's power and just stalking Ward to land his own heavy shots


Is there a chance Ward wins the fight, despite the match-up problems? Yes. If he were able to stay on the move and box GGG the entire bout while staying out of harm's way it's possible. As Jacobs did in the second half of the GGG fight.

It's possible, but unlikely. Ward is not an outside fighter and he's not a fighter who tends to stay at distance. Ward likes to come inside and that means he's coming into GGG's power zone. That's a recipe for a GGG stoppage win.

Ward is the naturally larger man in this potential bout. That said, I don't think Ward's size is enough to overcome his other issues in a potential GGG bout and my guess is that Ward does not see the final bell in the fight.

I agree with the assessment of boxer Darnell Boone (also previous GGG sparring partner) who fought both Ward and Kovalev. He says that he feels GGG beats Ward (and Kovalev), and that's how I see it as well.

 

It might be, but likely not in the way you think.

It's not a good match-up for Ward. It never was. For the reasons I explained in the first post.

Again, Boone has fought or sparred with all three men. So I feel pretty good on my assessment of the situation seeing as it matches Boone's own thoughts.

 

In a vacuum, perhaps Ward has some power. Or underrated power.

Against a guy who has never been down in 400 fights and who will gladly take a punch to give his own, Ward has no power.

This is why I mentioned GGG-Brook. GGG simply did not care at all about Brook's power, which is why he was content to eat shots just so he could walk Brook down.

It's very difficult to beat GGG if you don't have power, in my mind. Especially Prime GGG. Maybe it's different as he fades with age.

 

The undistinguished MW hits harder than Ward and is larger than Ward, in height/reach.

The problem for the good LHW is that, apparently, he has stamina and body punch resistance issues. Which GGG does not, as pointed out in the first post of the thread.

Match-ups make fights. I don't think Ward matches up well against GGG.