The original Vs the present. We've now seen Woodley beat the best striker in his division and the best grappler. He made Maia look like a complete amateur tbh. It's safe to say if Gracie goes for the single or double leg it's getting stuffed and he gets dominated. That being said, would Woodley be able to defend a trip from the clinch as well? Or of Gracie pulled guard is Woodley a good enough Wrestler to keep top position? A year or so back I was convinced Gracie beats Woodley, but now that Woodley has beaten Maia so easily I'm honestly not so sure.
Royce doesn't have the wrestling chops to take Woodley down, obviously. Same goes for him trying to take Woodley down from the clinch, if he somehow was able to force Woodley into one. Pulling guard also wouldn't be an effective strategy vs an opponent who is reticent to engage in ground work. Closed guard in mma scoring criteria benefits the man on top and the second Royce starts working his open guard for sweeps and subs Woodley would take the first opportunity to stand up. An x-factor would be if Royce in allowed to wear a gi, this may give him the leverage needed to force Woodley into ground fighting exchanges.
A clinch is the only way I see him taking Woodley down but since Maia never once tried it I'm not sure if it would even work. He certainly couldn't keep him in close guard to win the fight, but there are submissions from guard which he might catch Woodley in. Arm bar is probably his best bet.
Yeah he's not going to take Woodley down from the clinch, far too strong of a base and too much wrestling experience. The second he opens his guard, Woodley is going to bolt back up to a standing position. The only way he could feasibility catch Woodley in a submission would be in a scramble where he managed to take his back.
Woodley finally defends the title convincingly but in the most lethargic and unimpressive manner possible... As to the question that's posed here? Woodley is a nightmare up for Gracie, wide UD or KO.
Why? Going in Woodley was seen as a terrible style matchup for Maia, many tipped him to KO him in a round or two(me included) Instead he puts on one of the most lethargic and boring world title performances in recent memory(rivaled only by his 2nd fight with Thompson) He couldn't even shut Maia down legitimately for 100% of the fight, he had to resort to blatantly grabbing the fence on two occasions. Pretty huge considering Maia's ONLY chance at winning this fight was getting it to the ground.
The clinch is his best bet especially in a cage. Wish Maia would have tried it so we'd have a better idea how strong he actually is in the clinch with a grappler. You're right though because Woodley is competent striking he won't be desperate to be on the mat with Royce or any sub specialist. That's one advantage MMA has over BJJ, with a Gi scrambling up isn't as easy because of the grips you can have when in guard, obvs that isn't the case in no Gi combat. He can try to break down his posture and go for a triangle or arm bar without releasing guard, that's probably the only way I see him winning. So it relies on a lot of assumptions 1) Gracie can trip from the clinch or pull guard 2) Gracie is strong enough to break down his posture 3) Gracie can lock a submission from guard. Whereas the only assumption we need to make for Woodley to win is 1) he can defend every takedown attempt. Given the way Woodley shut Maia down so completely you have to favour him objectively. Maia is easily as good a BJJ specialist as Gracie (some will argue he's better) so he knows takedowns just as well as he does. Plus he's quicker and more atheltic than Royce. Royce's big advantage normally is his fighting mentality and his knowledge of subs. Not sure he has any of these advantages over Maia. But on the flip side Maia is 40 now so is past his best. I'd say this, Woodley probably should be the favourite but Royce can't be written off because of he gets one shot at a sub he'll take it.
Woodley by brutal KO. Gracie was great back in the day because a lot of fighters where clueless to BJJ. Now they are not and the elite guys at the very least have good defence on the mat.
Let's say he gets punished for grabbing the fence, he loses a point. Still wins a landslide decision. The reason I was impressed is because Woodley has dominated the best grappler in his division. He's also beaten the two best strikers in his division. That's legitimate ATG skillset especially if it maintains for the next couple of years. But yeah proving to beat Maia is different to being favoured.
Like I said... Wasn't impressed due to the lethargic nature of the performance and the fact that he had a horrible style for Maia. Still think he has to yet to convincingly beat Thompson, the first was rightfully scored a draw but for me the 2nd was 48-47 Thompson. Woodley is a good fighter, but I think it's more of a combination of his being a top 5 fighter and coming along at the ring time than being a truly special talent. He hasn't really improved at all since the loss to MacDonald, a fight where he was completely schooled and shut out in... But with Lawler being war torn, very beatable(thought he lost the 2nd Hendricks fight, Condit and was well down prior to MacDonald pulling that quit job) and there being no real new blood in the division or tough stylistic fights for him outside of Thompson.. It's an easy reign.
I don't buy this. Gracie won't be exchanging with Woodley so won't have chance to get countered. Woodley won't come out swinging because he isn't that aggressive. Woodley most likely potshots from range stuffing every time Gracie gets close. BJJ is often spoken about as a dead art that's been overtook by wrestling. I don't buy that. Any BJJ specialist that cross trains with Muay Thai or Kickboxing will be a nightmare for anyone. As for Gracie specifically, to win he must get someone on the mat. He did eventually train MT but by then he was far past his best. Prime Gracie was BJJ and leg kicks. So if someone has world class TDD they'll have a great chance of beating Gracie but at WW there's not a huge number of men I'd favour over him tbh.
I don't believe in easy reigns tbh. I think his game has improved massively since MacDonald as well. He puts people off with the conservative way he fights but his resume is world class and even though he edged Thompson, he did edge it for me 48-47. Plus the elephant in the room with MMA is it's only a 20 year old sport, what does it take to be an ATG WW? He has 3 defences now and 4 consecutive fights against the number 1 in his division. A win over Lawler, Masvidal and Thompson again easily sets him up as a top 4 ATG WW behind only GSP and Hughes. And there or there about with Sakuraba.
I agree that Woodley-Thompson 1 was a draw and 2 was a win for Thompson on a rd by rd scoring system. I still think quite a few fighters in the top10 would be 50-50 fights if they got a shot at Woodley. Condit for example would get taken done but has insane cardio, is as tough as nails and could easily overwhelm Woodley as they hit rd 3 onwards. Thompson needed to be more active/offensive and make Woodley use up his gas take more. Woodley's gas take is garbage just like Romero. Romero was exhausted after only 2 rds against Whittaker.
How exactly has it improved? The fight was only 3 years ago. Woodley is still the same power wrestler with good natural power and decent boxing + kickboxing skills. What are these improvements that you're speaking of? Because going back to his fights 3, 4 and 5 years ago I still see the same fighter... Maybe he's gained some championship poise sure, but as far as actually skills and attributes go? Basically the exact same fighter. MacDonald would shut him out again..... Woodley still keeps his back to the cage and rarely initiates, that's what saw him lose to MacDonald and struggle with Thompson, only MacDonald has better TDD and grappling than Thompson so that threat is largely nullified.. Welterweight has really gone to ****... It's filled with blown up Lightweights, mediocre new blood and some reluctant old guard who are unwilling to give it up. With Hendricks falling off, Condit probably gone, MacDonald to Bellator, Larkin to Bellator, Lombard back at MW, Gastelum at MW.. What's there to the division? near 40 year old Maia who is still great at what he does but matches terribly with Woodley, Thompson who can match Woodley but that fight will never happen again due to how shitty the last two were.. Still solid but war torn Lawler... Then who? Masvidal, Cerrone, Nelson, Magny, Ponzinibbio and Usman maybe???? Of the bunch Ponzinibbio maybe has a punchers chance, and Usman might be able to cause some problems as well... Really not an interesting landscape, too many recent exits and the void has yet to be filled in.
