After watching Takam I do think Parker could outbox AJ but he would have to be very good to do it.. If Parker had a better gas tank I would say he has a great chance but I don't think he does and may get into trouble late fight.. To beat AJ Parker need to improve on his stamina so he outlast him.. Survive early shine late is he best option..
He needs to hope his chin is as good as he makes out because he is very easy to hit. He doesn't have the power to KO AJ imo so he'll have to grind it out, take punishment and hope AJ gases and then relentlessly pressure him for a TKO. Parker gassed against Takam so he'll need to get in to much better shape to do this. Imo this is 80/20 in AJs favour.
Parker needs to utilise his strengths. He's faster and most effective when getting off first and luckily for him Joshua's tendency to be stationary and in front of his opponent will suit Parker and allow him to let his hands go. Unfortunately Joshua knows this is a weakness and has developed a catch and counter style which makes him dangerous even in these situations. So Parker will need to find a way to get off first without being punished by counters, this means either clinching after throwing or using movement. Movement will be key, we saw that vs Takam. You can't just stand and trade with Joshua, he's too adept on the inside, too strong and far too powerful and Parker isn't an inside fighter he prefers to throw at mid range. So once Parker has let his combinations go, he needs to move, force Joshua to reset and chase him. Get off first then move, get off first then move and repeat until victory. But Parker can't win by just out boxing Joshua. Parker isn't very effective off the back foot, due to him not counter punching much and when being defensive he often puts himself in positions where he is vulnerable. If he just does that he'll find himself pushed back all the time he'll find he won't have many opportunities to set and let his hands go, which is what happened to Takam he was forced to be too defensive and couldn't do enough to win rounds. That means clinching and smothering any possible counter when he can so he can keep in the centre of the ring and not be pushed to the ropes. Head movement will be key too. Parker showed improved head and upper body movement vs Hughie Fury, he'll need that when he finds himself pinned as Parker doesn't utilise a very high guard. If Parker could learn to counter more he'd be far more effective he could slip and counter instead of just slip, slip, get pushed back and then eventually hit when he's in a bad position. Working the body will be key. His overall game plan must be to drain Joshua, be busy, be physical, when Joshua is looking to rest that's when he needs to push the tempo. Don't give Joshua the chance to recover to mount another big attack as that could be disasterous. A tired Joshua is a vulnerable Joshua we saw that vs Whyte and Wlad. So Parker will need to be in the best shape of his life. He needs to come in lighter as he's been too heavy in recent fights. Speed, movement and conditioning will all be required to win.
AJ reminds me a little bit of Frank Bruno, doesn't gas quite as hard though and has way more confidence. Parker has enough boxing ability and what appears to be the chin to hang in there until the gas out happens. Parker also appears to have enough power to take advantage. Idk if I'm reading too much into it but, Parker's chin may be David Tua like, but it's way to early to say with any certainty... It's a bunch of 'ifs' with Parker, if he has the chin, if he has the power, if he can adjust to the counters. But AJ has one big weakness we know, stamina... I wouldn't count Parker out so quickly, he's got a better shot at the upset than most give credit. He's defininitly the underdog but, answering yes to the above listed 'ifs' could pose a real problem for AJ...
Parker has a chin like Tua's, so he could just out box Joshua until Joshua got tired, then go after him......................that is possible................we will see, but he'd better check out the judges, referee and boxing commission in the UK..............