Canelo popped for Clenbuterol

You stated "it would be highly unlikely (not impossible of course) that the test happened just when the concentration would be the highest." I'm asking you what you would consider a plausible scenario that would produce a result of 600-800 picograms. So lets do the math, we have two tests 3 days apart. (Feb 17th and Feb 20th)

That's means in approximately 72 hours, it went from approximately 600-800 picograms to 60-80 picograms. (about 1/10th more or less over that time like you said)

That means per 12 hours, if we're talking linear, it dissipated on average about 0.6 of what is was over 12 hours (1/10 times 6, since 12 hours x 6 = 72 hours)

This is just ballpark of course, and if you think my math is off then please provide your calculations and where you think I'm off. If lets say after 90 minutes it was at it's maximum concentration, lets say 1,000 picograms since that's the limit for contaminated meat. So approximately 10 hours later it would probably be about half of what it was at maximum concentration. (that's if the dissipation is linear, it could be exponential or some other curved line function, but lets just say it's linear to make the math easier)

If the clenbuterol was dissipating linealy and evenly based on the levels of the two tests 3 days apart, if it was at 1,000 picograms about 90 minutes after he ate it, I think we can expect it to be somewhere around what he tested at 10 hours later after sleeping. Approximately 0.6 of 1,000 picograms per 12 hours, so 600-800 picograms sounds about right, especially if you consider when he's sleeping I doubt the clenbuterol would dissipate out of his system as quickly as when he's awake, training, drinking water, exercising etc.

And again, you may find my math completely off, so if you disagree with my math, then please by all means provide your own calculations. (I'm basing it off a lineal dissipation model to keep the math simple)

 

I addressed this in the other thread. That quote was from a NY Times article from 2010 in response to a comment about how "low" Contador's test result is, that just because it's such a low level doesn't mean it's not doping. We're in 2018, a lot has happened between 2010 and 2018 as far as clenbuterol is concerned and the quote is obsolete and extremely misleading as far as it being applied to current cases involving clenbuterol and the possibility of contaminated meat.

 

It's actually not linear, every 36 to 48 hours the amount should be half of what it was before. Which does not fit the test result unless somebody tries to flush it out and dilute the amount.

Even if your math were correct, it only works in the specific scenario that you assume the minimum amount (600 instead of 800 picogram)

You simply have to admit, that your version is not even very unlikely but it's the least possible scenario. Every other explanation is more likely. That's all I am saying.

 

Oh the irony I am following you around?

I wasn't even talking to you, I didn't quote you, I didn't comment any anything you said but YOU felt the need to quote ME because you wanted my attention again, bless you.

I have told you before but you obviously didn't understand, so I'll explain it again to you slowly..

If you don't want to talk to me, then don't, if you don't want me to reply to you then don't quote me, it really is that simple.

Want me to walk you through it again? Or do you really just want my attention and to talk to me?

 

The votes may well be that far apart, it may well be that one sided but Adalaide Byrd just scored it 118-110 Canelo.

 

It's about the same as the poll for who won the first fight. Apparently the same % who thought Golovkin won the first fight now think Canelo is deliberately cheating. Coincidence?

What it tells us is that there are a lot of Golovkin fans on this forum.

 

Yep but he will still try mental gymnastics to justify Canelo instead of just admit that Canelo and most likely was using.

In the words of Aristotle
“Other things being equal, we should prefer a demonstration which derives from fewer postulates or hypotheses.” (Aristotle, Posterior Analytics)

or example #2

The TV show Ancient Aliens is a constant parade of logical fallacies and factual errors. One of the most common errors made on the show is that its theories violate Occam’s Razor. For example, which of these explanations would Occam have preferred?

First example Humans Built the Pyramids

There are humans.

Humans frequently build massive tombs.

The pyramids are one example of this behavior.


Second example and Shadows line of thinking

Aliens Built the Pyramids

There is alien life.

Alien life has the technology to get to Earth.

Aliens are motivated to build pyramids.

Aliens left no unambiguous signs of their presence.

No scientists have discovered evidence for aliens.

Aliens covered their tracks by making the pyramids look like they were built by humans.


The first explanation has fewer moving parts (fewer “postulates,” Aristotle would say), and in addition each moving part is more straightforward. In the second explanation, you have a lot of different postulates, and each one seems to raise more questions than it answers!

 

I didn't say it was linear, I said I did my calculations linearly to make the math easy.

The tests were 3 days apart so you'd expect a 0.6 dissipation every 12 hours to result in a 0.1 dissipation after 72 hours. (approximately) 0.6 of 1,000 picograms, assuming that's max concentration would be in the ballpark of what Canelo tested for. (and again if he slept 8 hours during that first 12 hours, you'd expect less dissipation while he sleeps than when he's awake)

My math was based on an approximate value of 1,000 picograms after 90 minutes of ingesting a contaminated steak. It's more than the minimum 600 becuase that's based on 12 hours from ingestion and you said the level doesn't reach maximim concentration until the 90 minutes between eating it and it being maximum. The 0.6 is based on 12 hours, so for the first 90 minutes it would go from 0 to 1,000 picograms, reaching the maximum, then over the next 10.5 hours it would be right in between 600 and 800. (approx 685.7 picograms)

Based on the test being 3 days apart, which is a 0.1 dissipation over 72 hours, that equates to a 0.6 dissipation per 12 hours, which would put a next day sample 12 hours following ingestion right in the middle of 600 and 800 picograms (~685.7 picograms).

You asked for the math, the math lines up as to what we'd expect. What indicates those results are unlikely? It all depends on how soon after eating the meat he was tested. And if it was just one meal or if he ate contamianted meat for days. Of course these are just ballpark estimations, but going by the WADA limit of 1,000 picograms as a maximum for contaminated meat, a next day test could very well result in a test in the 600 - 800 picogram range.

 

Also Shadow relies on the straw man method of arguing which is why his **** posts are so long winded is because he tries to distort the truth and muddy up the whole point of the conversation.

Example:
Person 1: Poster with common sense

I think pollution from humans contributes to climate change.

Person 2: Shadow AKA straw man

So, you think humans are directly responsible for extreme weather, like hurricanes, and have caused the droughts in the southwestern U.S.? If that’s the case, maybe we just need to go to the southwest and perform a “rain dance.” and because a rain dance can be performed then there is a possibility that humans do not cause climate change so there is no climate change.


hence his mental gymnastics with trying to justify positive test with all the excuses/justifications no matter how far he has to stretch plausibility to make it fit into his desired result.

 

lol in fairness, you're talking about Aliens while I'm crunching the numbers.

 

so you make a lot of assumptions to make this work such as the cow having the max possible amount of Clen (how did that work out exactly like they just shot up the cow before he ate it). you also assume Canelo ate later on at night (when training you generally eat earlier as eating later tells your body to store it as fat ) and that they showed up right when he woke up to take a test the next day and last but not least how much meat he ate... you really have to take all the variables to the extreme for this scenario to work.. It makes it extremely unlikely to say the least.

 

Lol fair enough

 

Well I'm going by what WADA considers the limit to what they consider contamianted meat as a possibility, which is anything below 1,000 picograms. So for our calculations 1,000 picograms seems like a good value to put as the maximum concentration 90 minutes after ingestion.

elbonzoseco found a source that said the highest concentration is 90 Minutes after ingestion, and he mentioned 12 hours give or take, so I put those numbers into the calculations.

Given that VADA can randomly test you on any given day unannounced, it's certainly possible that 12 hours after eating a contaminated steak a VADA agent shows up at your door asking for a sample. Whether that's eating a steak for dinner and them coming in the morning, or eating a steak for lunch then VADA coming at night later on that day, while enrolled in VADA with its random unannounced testing you certainly could be tested 6-18 hours after eating a steak, that's certainly a possible scenario.

 

Dumb ****.

 

Lance failed a test early in his comeback for cortisone but by then the cancer survivor narrative was in full swing and he was given a retroactive TUE. Also, he hasn’t been tested a thousand times- again, that’s part of the Big Lie.