Diaz late TKO or SUB. Gaethje's main strategy is plodding forward blocking punches with his face until his opponent fatigues. Nate would light him up from range and he doesn't get tired.
I get the rationale for picking Diaz here and I'm not sure which way I'd go at the moment but the Gaethje low kicks are something that shouldn't be overlooked here. That's always been a huge hole in Nate game.
Yeah but Gaethje would have to eat 5-6 punches to land flush with one of his rear leg kicks. I'd be a question of which gives out first, Diaz's lead leg or Gaethje's face.
Been a while since I've seen Diaz fight and only recently seen Gaethje, but of what I saw of him the other night (way too drunk that night) he looked very come forward and easy to hit. Wasn't sold on his low kick, which the way he throws it looks easy to see coming and from what I remember he didn't throw it with enough frequency. I say Nate tears him up with his hands in a tiring battle and then possibly manoeuvres the exhausted Gaethje into some kinda sub.
The problem with that is the more leg kicks you throw the more you open yourself up to a takedown and if Nate gets him down he can tap him.
Yeah and BJJ guys are notoriously bad at shooting, but trapping a single leg and dragging someone down is a different kettle of fish. It takes a special kind of athlete to stay standing when someone has one leg and is ragging it around, I'm not even sure it's something that technique can be an advantage for. I don't expect this fight to go to the mat, I'm just saying that if I'm a leg kicker and I'm against a dangerous jits guy I'll probably be reluctant to throw it that often. Nate will obviously be playing the part of dirty boxer in this matchup but if he gets a chance on the ground he's gonna take it. I'm not one of those who thinks he's the superior brother neither. I think his WW run was woeful. And close decisions aside there's still the Thomson, Henderson and Franca losses that are a clear indication of his level. If it weren't for his ability to out strike Connor I don't think anyone would put him on the level of Nick. That being said he's always going to be a very dangerous fighter because of his boxing pedigree and his Jits training. Long story short, if you leg kicks against an explosive jits guy you could find yourself seconds away from tapping.
The way I actually see him winning is dirty boxing, beating him down and choking him out, that's why I went with sub.
Diaz hasn't fought since August of 2016 , he has taken a lot of punishment over the years , he is 33 years old and you want him to make 155 ? If Nate ever fights again in the UFC he won't be the favourite , he's stepping stone material now .