Anthony Joshua oppens at 1/9 to beat povetkin

While Joshua is favourite that's wider than I'd expected. Maybe 1/5 would of been more what I expected, but the fans betting on their favourite fighters always skew betting odds when one is way more popular than the other.

How the fight plays out will come down to how well Povetkin handles Joshua's power and how well Joshua copes with the pace of the fight. If Povetkin can avoid being blown out early and can hang in their maybe he can turn the fight his way against a tired Joshua, much like his fight with Takam.

Go back and watch their fights with Takam, Joshua beat Takam on the inside forcing him to move and counter while Takam did the same vs Povetkin he had far more success and was more willing to trade, which suggests Joshua will have plenty of success on the inside. Takam hit Povetkin with some awfully flush shots, literally moving his entire body, the uppercut in the 5th was brutal. But he lacked the power Joshua will bring. Joshua will undoubtedly hit Povetkin with some hugely powerful shots and Povetkin will need to ride out the storm to have a chance. Povetkin does have a very good chin, but how good we will see, it's key to his chances in this fight, he will need to walk through fire to win this one though.

 

I think they look at how Povetkin did against Price and then extrapolate what AJ would have done with Povetkin after that knockdown.

 

This is true. Povetkin hasn't looked good in a while, but he's still dangerous. He hits hard and is still better than most of the division, I'd only favour Joshua, Wilder, a fit Fury over him. But there's a good reason why Povetkin is the underdog, he really only has a punchers chance. He can't out box Joshua, he might not even be able to out fight him with the size difference and Joshua's inside work and uppercut. He needs to hope Joshua makes a mistake and gives him an opening like he did vs Whyte and can then finish him there and then.

 

Exactly. We are talking about a fighter off the PEDs and at 38 years old way past his best.

This is a very easy fight for AJ.

He will employ holding tactics everytime Povetkin gets inside, stopping Povetkin from having his only chance of victory. We can see he wants to turn into another Wlad, and is now far more safety first and is not going to take any risks on the inside. The British referee will always be constantly jumping in and stopping Povektin from working.

 

AJ will just hold everytime Povektin gets on the inside- and the referee will also regularly jump in and stop Povetkin from working on the inside too. This will be very uncompetitive with Povetkins only winning tactic taken away from him.

 

I just looked up the odds for AJ vs. Takham. It was 1/50. So 1/9 sounds not so unreasonable for Povetkin considering he handily beat Takham and probably declined since then since it's been a while ago.

 

I don’t believe in value bets but this one is probably as good as you’ll get.

Povetkin is a sound and effective boxer. He will have a chance.

 

Its not PEDS, its just age. People forget that until recently Meldonuim was held in the same great esteem as caffiene, a can of coke or a cup of coffee. Povetkin can still do 12 rounds fine, its his legs, agility and movement that are slowing up on him. Every fighter, every person gets old, Povetkin will be 39 by the time of the fight, hopefully he can put up one last great challenge at the end of his career. Still, cant see Joshua losing this one.

 

Joshua doesn't really clinch on the inside though. He prefers to keep his hands high, catch shots on his gloves and shoulders and counter.

The Parker fight is really the only Joshua fight where there was any real clinching and that was because of how Parker dealt with Joshua's elbow/forearm. Joshua uses his forearm/elbow to create space on the inside to work, but Parker knowing this was a dangerous range for him ducked under the forearm/elbow.

Now Povetkin got caught under Wlad's left arm too, but Wlad used his forearm differently. He didn't use it as a barrier to create space he used it to lean on fighters. When Povetkin tries to come under the forearm he won't have Joshua lean down on him all the time, look at the start of round 10 vs Parker, Parker ducks under the left arm but Joshua doesn't lean down on him, he allows Parker to get inside with his head on his chest and work Joshua's body.

When Povetkin dips under the left arm, Joshua won't step in and lean in with the forearm, he'll more likely step back and try to land that uppercut a punch Wlad lacked in his arsenal. When Joshua tries that Povetkin should instead step to his right and try to pin the left arm to Joshua's body and then come over the top with a right hand. Povetkin will have far more opportunities to land against Joshua than he did vs Wlad.