In appreciation of Sergey Kovalev: a few thoughts

Commiserations to all the Kovalev fans here. He had a good run; but, as the saying goes, all good things come to an end - and Kovalev went out not at his best, but still fighting one of the best contenders in the division. Alvarez came determined, and, to his credit, took some pretty big shots before getting through with his own. I didn't see that one coming, I knew that Kovalev wasn't quite as good as in the past but I thought that would still have been too good for Alvarez, who I clearly underrated.

However, I'm reminded of an important fact which most in the industry know, but many fans don't realize - namely, that a boxer's true prime is actually much shorter than most people realize, even more so if they don't look after themselves. Kovalev will generally be underrated for the next little while, but actually in his prime from about 2012 -2015 he really was a monster and one of the best ever at LHW.

Sure, he still had some little weaknesses which Ward and Alvarez exploited: his jab came back a bit too low sometimes, and he could have had better head movement, and his footwork whilst on the back foot had room for improvement. But at his best these were either more than amply compensated by his other attributes: frightening power, huge confidence, an excellent and accurate jab and straight-right combo, and the killer instinct in the ring.

Kovalev hasn't been prime since Pascal II at the start of 2016, I remember a friend in the industry saying that the Chilemba fight could be the beginning of the end, because that level was already a good deal below peak Kovalev already. Before that fight he was sure that Kovalev would KO Ward, after that he said it would be close because both Kovalev and Ward looked awful in comparison to their bests! Kovalev from 2012-2015 would have beaten the 2016-2017 Ward clearly, who incidentally was himself not prime when he came back - that's why he retired after Kovalev II. If you watch Ward's peak, e.g. vs Froch you can see that he was clearly better then.

I do not wish to labour the point, but the same is true to varying degrees of Floyd since the Canelo fight (or even before), Pacquaio since the Marquez KO, Golovkin since the Lemiuex fight, etc. It won't be long before Lomachenko is past prime, and by the way Rigondeaux was also himself clearly past prime. He was probably already past prime when the fight was first discussed years ago. Glowacki upset Huck in a war three years ago, not because he's better than Huck, but simply because he was prime and Huck a bit past prime. Ditto Hurd vs Lara. A lot of people rate George Groves as #1 at SMW right now, and based on achievements that's deserved. But actually he too is well past prime and if there were anything like an elite fighter in his prime in the division he'd destroy Groves just like Froch did.

It's not that a prime fighter can't give a bad performance - they can and do; but when a fighter getting on in years looks consistently poor over a few fights, usually that signals the end of the prime - even if they are still good enough to achieve a lot afterwards. Likewise every now and then a fighter we thought was slipping or even done turns back the clock and produces a fine performance; but such cases are rare.

That's why when we get a truly great performance it should be justly celebrated. An elite boxer at the top of his craft is a beautiful thing to behold. Enjoy the great memories Kovalev gave you when he destroyed Cleverly, Hopkins, Pascal and others. And continue loving the most human of sports, one which is capable of both so much joy and heartbreak.

Поздравляем вас с большой карьерой, Сергей Ковалев!

 

Things change pretty fast in boxing, although I agree that even so this is a quick one. A few things to note IMHO:

1) Stamina: Kovalev's stamina got worse quickly, he was gassed against Alvarez, Ward x 2, and even Chilemba to some extent. This is partly due to getting older, but probably more so to not looking after himself very well. In his prime Kovalev definitely had better stamina.

2) Confidence: When Kovalev was knocking everyone out he was supremely confident and this plays a huge role, especially with Kovalev's style. He knew he was going to win, his opponents were often already fearful before the opening bell, and Kovalev got the KO!

3) Technical flaws: Unfortunately Kovalev never quite fixed the technical flaws he had, and Alvarez to his credit learned what to do against Kovalev by watching Ward. As he said afterwards, the punch which changed the fight was all rehearsed - the same one that Ward caught Kovalev with in the rematch.

Kovalev is still pretty good, but it's frustrating to fight at a level which is clearly below your best, losing to opponents you would've beaten in your prime. I won't be surprised if he retires - he is seriously considering it.

 

Me too. Boxing is a cruel sport.