Golovkin' only path to becoming an ATG

Decisively beat Canelo, preferably by knockout

Decisively beat the winner of Saunders and Derevyachenko

Lose to Danny Jacobs


This is, as I see it, the only realistic way for Golovkin to achieve ATG status in the middleweight division. And even still, I fear it may not be enough.

First, Golovkin has to prove that the first Canelo fight was an abnormal result. Whatever the Golovkin fans have to say about bogus judges and clenbuterol and bad gloves and whatnot, the fact is that there was a close fight with lots of room for interpretation. If Golovkin decisively beats Canelo it proves

1) The first fight was heavily influenced by outside factors
2) Golovkin can handle mobile boxers with great chins and very good counterpunching (albeit with poor stamina)
Golovkin is not getting better with age and Canelo only popped for clenbuterol, which is not known for improving your chin or counterpunching. Unless Canelo has visibly deteriorated in athleticism and durability, we will have to leave it at that.

Second, Golovkin has to beat either Saunders or Derevyachenko. Saunders is not Canelo. Saunders is a big career middleweight who has fought and defeated notable (middleweight) punchers like Lee and O'Sullivan. Halfway through writing this I realized Saunders is actually fighting Andrade instead. But I don't think that matters. Saunders has shown he has the skill and speed to beat guys like Eubank Jr, Monroe Jr and David Lemieux. A hypejob and the scraps of Golovkin, but there is really no better resume in 160 at the moment. If Andrade can beat Saunders, and he can do it without a fluke result, he basically becomes the third man in the division, leapfrogging over unproven fighters like Charlo and (now) Derevyachenko. If Golovkin beats the winner here he can put rest to claims that he fought Canelo for a title that became defunct years ago. If Golovkin beats the winner he stays relevant.

 

And lastly, we get to Jacobs. At this point GGG is at least closing in on 38 years old. At the rate of the degradation in physicality and skills that we have seen, it's unlikely that he even beats Saunders or Andrade. But at the off chance he does, he will most likely be spent. If anyone wants to bet Golovkin can beat a top 5 opponent after his 38th birthday, we will have a bet for internet dollars. It's really a question of whether Golovkin wants to go out knocking out journeymen or welterweights or if he wants to retire in a blaze of glory. If he wants that ATG status, he better choose the latter.

The current options are quite dire. If Golovkin follows my plan, he'll already have put an end to Canelo and Saunders/Andrade. Charlo and Derevyachenko might have fought each other by then, they might not have. In any case they would not have had enough time for any other significant fights after a potential matchup. Murata and Sulecki are highly competent contenders at best.
It really only leaves out Jacobs, and to me, its a good thing for Gennady that they have previously fought. Their first fight was a close affair, marked only by the knockdown. Losing to Jacobs, especially by a visible margin, would very much help the case that Golovkin is a shot fighter. It would create a halo effect for his previous victories and always leave a positive asterisk for the latter part of his career. If GGG can still outbox Jacobs for parts of the round and simply get overwhelmed by his speed, then it would further the argument for an ever better prime Golovkin, one that never fought Jacobs. These days, you have to be careful who you lose to, and if he loses to Charlo or etc. Golovkin will be *exposed*.

 

This is all mere speculation, of course. I have doubts as to whether Golovkin even comes out of the Canelo rematch with the win. Definitely wouldnt bet on that, not even internet dollars.

 

You think Golovkin can defeat Jacobs after beating, or even fighting, Canelo and Saunders? The man is 36 years old.

 

True. I just think losing to Jacobs wouldn't be a terrible hit on his resume considering he bested the man already when he was a year and a half closer to his prime.