WILDER 6'7 215 Reach :83 Knockout Record : 95 % RECORD : 40 -1 Strengths : Power, Speed , can time opponents the longer the fight goes. Weaknesses : Limiited creativity in punches, doesn’t adjust well to taller guys , lacks offense when he's defending or avoiding punches. Questionable ability to react to hits( easily rattled ) Best Punches : Straight Right ,Left Hook Why he poses a threat ? He could possibly be to fast for Breazele and hurt him at any point. If Breazeale isnt using the active jab the fight then shifts greatly in favor of Wilder. Breazeale is susceptible to left hooks the most. Around his weak right guard he gets lazy putting up. Wilder has been throwing these more with guys expecting right hands. Hes equally a good finisher as Breazeale if hes got you hurt . Both are top finishers. Breazeale is a slow starter more then Wilder ,this could hurt him if Wilder picks up the pace and tries early for a K.O and gets a solid shot in. VS BREAZEALE 6'7 255 Reach: 81.5 Knockout Record: 90% RECORD: : 20 -1 Strengths : Durable chin , Heavy hands , Size . Weaknesses : Slow , Defensive holes , limited fights . Best Punches : Over hand Right ,Left body shot Why he poses a threat ? Wilder has difficulties adjusting to taller guys . Breazeale has very good body punching and no ones actually used this long distance against Wilder until recenty ( Fury ) in the entire fight ,Washington and Ortiz were confusing Wilder with body punching to set up up top shots . Breazeale is becoming better at this ,its how he set up the Izu win and had success against Negron late which shows hes still a threat at any time as well. Early in his career he was much less defense savvy and didn't calculate anything, this has changed. Breazele is a great finisher ultimately and can hurt you at any time ,this is a threat at 6'7 250 plus pounds anyway you look at it if someone doesn't throw in high volume at him. Wilder doesn't press his opponents, not backing Breazeale up and only throwing a punch or two will make the night MUCH harder for Wilder then a fast combination puncher on the inside weraing Breazeale out. What people are overlooking with Breazeale : The fighters to cause him most problems have been aggressive combo punchers and southpaws. Wilder is the exact opposite and will give Breazeale all the wishes hes asked for which is a back foot guy who doesn’t throw in bunches . I cant say this match actually favors Wilder because it doesn’t. Add in the X Factors : Wilder has been losing weight and has been breathing heavy in his last fights ,he wasn’t pressed by fury really and he couldn’t get over on Ortiz who didn’t have the size to use the weight advantage much. Breazeale who will push wilder back and rough him up in clinches which will tire wilder out either way . The HUGE one : Motivation . Breazeale wants to take Wilders head off ,we know why ( he was jumped by his goons ) . I'm sure Breazeale wont want to lose this fight when his family is watching . This automatically should make this at least 50/50 fight on its own . KEYS TO WIN Wilder : Establish a hard jab and stay focused on Breazeale right hand hes not as slow at times as many think ,he likes lead right hands to, because his jabs aren't strong and he gets over anxious .Don't stay at long range at striking range keep moving off center. Avoid ropes, Breazeale can do a lot of damage here . Breazeale : Don't lumber in range just stranding there/ throw something or get out of range. Maintain a active jab and keep mind of wilders left hook because he will go to that punch its your weak side.Body shots will be a must ,if he can at least knock wilder off balance its going to be a long night for Wilder to land any power shots. WHO WINS ? Is speed in itself enough to defeat Breazeale here who will be taking the fight with no long lay off, after just fighting a 6'6 olympian for 9 rounds who had very good skills and power ( trained under Ortiz 's trainer ) who had a 83 inch reach and will help him be primed for a wilder fight ? 1.Mental Edge : Goes to Breazeale , Hes going to want to hurt Wilder badly and wilder is consumed with Fury and Joshua and has come to the realization his head grew to the size of a boulder may not have been smart after all . 2..Power : Not exactly a major factor really. Both can hurt one another ,Breazeale will take more shots from wilder then the other way around if it gets ugly and Breazele remains somewhat composed and sets up shots. 3.Ability to land the shot and finish : This ultimatley decides this fight. Its why Wilders experience factor may come in and if it goes past 5 rounds he may get to Breazeale who himself gets better after round 3. This would favor wilder very early ,this could be a very early fight or late one ? . Can the 2 factors with 1 being nullified which is power overcome Ability to land first? Does Breazeales mental edge here go through Wilders ability to gage that shot he's going to need ? Theres a lot of stuff going on here because its how Breazele approaches this fight and what weight he actually comes in that will win or lose it for him. Based On this I can easily give Breazeale a 40% chance to win this but right now I give Wilder the slight edge , but im going to do some picks ... 1.Winner : Wilder overall is the favored . Wilder will win if he can end it before round 9 wilders best chances are the first 3 rounds and rounds 7 an 8. 2.Winner : Breazeale , if Wilder comes in below 215. you can throw out most of this ,I don’t think he'll last in a long fight at that weight here. Breazeales punches will get to him and drain the smaller Wilder here. 3.Winner : Breazeale if it goes past 9 rounds. Someone's going to be in TROUBLE and get BOMBED out but who ? Im really going to wait until weigh ins for a final prediction. Note : If Breazeale gets a bad decision once again I'll put it as a win like Fury.
That's his official record. A poll is not going to change that. You dont have authority to change fighters' records. At least officially.
Im going to keep adding to it, was done very quickly and I have a lot more ,so i'll probably just add to the thread. i'll have more of a feel when I see them actually preparing for this.
@CST80 Please enlighten us on your great insightfulness where I got it wrong here ,if once again im the delusional one( again baseless/mindless input from you ) ? lol
Good analysis. Don't forget Breazeale will be fighting for his family, he will be motivated. His best chance is hurt Wilder early, first 4 rounds, or late in rounds 11, 12 then both guys are gassed and Wilder's hand and foot work is less of a factor. Breazeale is a sitting duck rounds 5-10.
Breazeales chances go up the closer he can get to 250 for this one . If can get to 250 he can win it. Breazeales best rounds are 4 and 5 usually . Jumping on Wilder would be smart early but both are slow starters .The later the fight goes it will depend on what happens in those rounds and who's more drained . Both have knockout power late in fights. I'n this one I'm betting the later it goes the more advantage Breazeale has and the weight will tire Wilder out , but that's also assuming Breazeales not hurt or to heavy above 255. m Wilders rounds for me are 1 2 3 , 7 ,8 ,9 Breazeales rounds are 4, 5, 6,10, 11,12. Breazeale has to watch the first few and some after mid point. He can win this by establishing winning rounds a s early as possible , then going for the knockout before mid point. Basically for me Breazeales got to get it past round 9 if he doesn't get him at around midway. Wilder has to get him out early or before the 10th. Again this is much easier if I knew what both are going to weigh. I'm assuming Wilder 215 and Breazeale 255. These are the weights in general area and what both need to weigh at least. Wilder should be 225 and Breazeale should be 250 , but????????
I might give Breazeale 45% chance after the presser...Anyone notice wilder was wearing black skirt ? Should I equate that into the mind sets of both ?
Great OP @GALVATRON Nice to read someones in depth analysis. I really do believe that Trouble has a great chance here. Against AJ, he froze, caught in the moment and was overwhelmed in every single way. Here, I really believe that he can - and will - use the AJ experience to his advantage. Wilder can get tagged as Molina, Ortiz, Fury showed. I want to see Wilder do the funny dance. And I don't mean that silly shoulder shifting thing he performs in the immediate post fight either!
Wilders getting stopped. Fury won't be too far behind him, unless he keeps cherry picking small old guys with no power.
