My Initial Thoughts On When The Chelyabinsk Krusher Meets The Cinnamon Boy Of Guadalajara.

Eggman · Sep 9, 2019

kirk said: ↑

I'll be putting about $500 on Kova to win this.

That being said... its one of the least sure bets Ive ever made.

Its just hard for me to be confident in what state Kova will be in and how he will take Canelos crisp punching.

But I am counting on Kovas command of distance, and its effectiveness magnified by his large dimensional advantage, coupled with legitimate power, to be more than enough to neutralize Canelo for large segments of the fight.

Kovalev 8 rounds to 4, UD.
Click to expand...

Going for a UD AGAINST canelo. I tip my hat to you sir on your massive pair of b.alls.

kirk · Sep 9, 2019

Eggman said: ↑

Going for a UD AGAINST canelo. I tip my hat to you sir on your massive pair of b.alls.
Click to expand...

true.

UD in reality. Probably SD on the judges cards.

I feel Kova will win handily enough that they wont be able to rob him.

We'll see I guess.

Juan carlos · Sep 9, 2019

Pakkuman said: ↑

Is there a catchweight and/or rehydration clause?
Click to expand...

170 libras

Eggman · Sep 9, 2019

kirk said: ↑

true.

UD in reality. Probably SD on the judges cards.

I feel Kova will win handily enough that they wont be able to rob him.

We'll see I guess.
Click to expand...

Exactly. A clear 8-4 win against canelo will probably mean a MD win for canelo.

I have no faith in any judging when it comes to canelo, especially after the mayweather fight.

Hope it comes off though!

RingKing75 · Sep 9, 2019

CST80 said: ↑

And how exactly is Canelo going easily saunter on in and do that work to the body?
Click to expand...

I agree with this. I dont think Canelo is going to work the body how Ward did in his masterpiece performance. If looks to counter to the body off of everything Kovalev throws its possible but then he risks getting caught up top which is a big, big risk.

BCS8 · Sep 9, 2019

emallini said: ↑

All those words and no technical stuff mentioned. You have never boxed.
Click to expand...

I enjoyed your technical breakdown. Very informative.

Mr Icaman · Sep 9, 2019

That was long too but I read it...

There just has to be some sort of catch that we either are missing or don't know about yet.

Its not a fair fight and Canelo biggest detraction is he doesn't give out fairness.

I can't see them misjudging like the did with Mayweather..

Probs be some silly catch weight or re hydration clause that just makes the fight a face other than to impress casual Mexicans...

Beouche · Sep 10, 2019

BCS8 said: ↑

I very much liked CST80's writeup. It's comprehensive and he lays a great case.

As a Kovalev fan, I hope he's right and Canelo gets wrecked.

But.

But here's some counterpoints.

1) Kovalev is a long way from his prime. He's older and slower than he was. He's still a hell of a boxer but prime Kovalev would stop today's version.

2) Chilemba, who is an awkward customer, made Kovalev struggle to win. Canelo may well have seen how a crafty boxer has a gap against Kovalev, and the Ward fight probably reinforced that thought.

3) Canelo has an excellent team. He's proven to be highly adaptable. Against Golovkin in the first fight, he suddenly found footwork and was able to motor around the ring in a way he'd never really managed before. In the second fight he had a come-forward plan that likewise few expected. Don't be surprised if we see elements ofthe Ward gameplan.

4) Their reach is not that dissimilar. Kovalev has 2 inches on him. As CST noted, Kova managed to overcome 4 inches vs Eidler. Canelo isn't going to be stuck on the end of Kovalev's jab all night. He's going to land stuff of his own. He's going to land to the body. He's a speedy customer and while his power is not on SK's level, its enough to get the attention of anybody. If Kova is in any way soft, he's going to feel it.

5) Canelo is freaking durable at higher weights. It's clear that dehydrating had a huge negative impact on his body and constitution. He's not easy to land flush on and his chin is concrete. It's not to say that even Kovalev can crumble him without some major prior investment.

6) There will be weight stipulations. Weight draining has a major negative effect on a fighter. Look at how worthless Zombie Geale was against Cotto. At how Canelo himself was weakened by cutting to 154 and to 152 in the Floyd fight. Remember how good Jacobs looked vs GGG? Yeah, the rehydration was a major part of that. Kovalev looks dried out at 175 already. Rehydration limits will be weights on his ankles. The Kovalev that we are judging by is NOT the version that Canelo will face. Canelo is gonna fight the beef jerky version of Kova and that version will suck.

7) Canelo's probably been mainlining the clenbuterol first thing every morning, Who knows what else he's been on? I wouldn't be surprised if they use a spraygun to coat him in base before the fight so that we don't see that he's glowing. He's going to be as strong as its physically possible to be for his weight. Kovalev will not.

8) I like CST's optimism regarding the judges, but, even if Oscar has to shove a stick up Canelo's crack and wave him around like a puppet to make him seem conscious, if Canelo is standing at the end of the 12th, he wins. Count on it.
Click to expand...

This. We're not gonna see Gasnelo in this fight. We're gonna see the return of the 12 round monster tank

Robney · Sep 10, 2019

Only partly read the wall of text so don't know all the angles you came up with.
My take is, even if he wins 8 to 9 rounds on most people's scorecards, Alvarez will win or at least get a draw out of it.
They just won't let their golden goose die, and certainly not in Vegas.

Dirsspaardis · Sep 10, 2019

There must be a catch to this (yeah I guess I’m one of the cynical people you described)

Based on logic alone, Kovalev mops the floor with Ginger.
Size matters, styles matter, Kovalev being a bigger, stronger and defensively much more responsible Golovkin will matter.

AlFrancis · Sep 10, 2019

CST80 said: ↑

Now onto the fragility of The Krusher. Fine, he doesn't like it to the body. I got it. Well then, why the hell didn't Eleider Alvarez the second time around and Anthony Yarde just go ahead and stop him by going to the body? Because when he's pumping it out the way he should, Sergey Kovalev has perhaps the best jab in the sport, that's why. And it's really really really hard to get past it. Guess what else? He's really really really heavy handed. Which is why they make little to no effort to try to get past it, especially early. They don't want to risk it and take too much damage, but invariably just by standing there getting peppered with it non stop, they still do. Also, if they get careless and rush in, Kovalev's fearsome straight right is waiting right behind it. The jab is to blind your opponent for the power shot you're going to follow it up with, and it's also to control the range, and he can the whole night if need be because it's that authoritative. Kovalev uses it like a fencer, and no one wants to lunge into getting a poke in the eye.

Now here comes the power issue, but Eleider dropped him and stopped him! Yeah, well... Eleider hits FAAAR harder than Canelo, especially when he gets a clean shot, that's why. DeGale, Pascal and Jack, reasonably hard punchers couldn't make a dent in Bute. All it took was one clean straight right on the button, Bute went all jelly legged and that was that. Eleider also managed to rock Pascal far harder than Bivol and Browne ever did. Make no mistake Eleider Alvarez is a very big and very powerful Light Heavyweight that could probably make Cruiserweight, and he stopped an ill prepared drunk off his ass distracted Kovalev, not a focused well prepared sharp as a knife version.

Also, don't delude yourselves. While Anthony Yarde may not be some next level talent, his power is very very real. The fact that he stopped Sek for the first time in his career, he stopped Sjekloca for the first time in his, stopped Nemespati 3 rounds faster than Callum Smith, stopped Reeves 7 rounds faster than Murat, kind of proves that. Couple the natural raw power, with the fact that the man is a literally a brick ****house who could make Cruiserweight with absolute ease, and has a great chin. Kind of means, no Middleweight is going to move up and walk all over him, hell most Super Middleweights would get smashed to bits, a few already have. He's a big, very powerful, very heavy handed dude, who will probably only lose to the most skilled fighters in the division who can negate his advantages effectively.

So for Kovalev to get stopped by one and hurt by the other, no big deal. But what is a big deal, is that he took the power in the second fight against Alvarez, and took the sustained assault from Yarde, never folded, never went down, never mentally quit and came back even stronger the next round.

But you may say, Canelo is more skilled than those two. Are you so sure about that? Alvarez is a brilliant boxer, who rarely if ever loses a round, even against top guys, not to mention he's 6 foot tall and has a 76 inch reach, 6 inches longer than Canelo's. And what Yarde lacks in skills, he makes up with in sheer power and brawn. I actually have a really hard time seeing Canelo even being competitive against those two. Much less beating one of them. The skills and size of Eleider and the size and power of Yarde would be far too much for him to overcome.

Hell, we haven't even seen how well Canelo can hang with a non ****house tailor made Super Middleweight. Could he beat Benavidez? Plant? Smith? Doubtful. Skills may pay the bills, but those skills only take you so far when you're scaling weight divisions like King Kong climbing the Empire State Building. Sooner or later you get so high, you find yourself punching waaaay above your weight class. You then realize, you're out of your depth, as your violently being swatted down to earth like a fly.

A few things to consider.

Kovalev is a far rangier, far lighter on his feet, far more fluid boxer than Gennady Golovkin. GGG has gotten into a rut of squaring up in front of his opponents a little too much, and while defending well, opens himself up to far more shots than he used to. Kovalev still fights cautiously, and his jab in non stop, and coming from all angles, jabs to the face, body, arms, shoulders. Anywhere he can land it, to keep his opponents at bay. And since its still heavy as ****, none of them can even think straight enough to think their way past it. All they're concerned about is avoiding it, and especially what might be lurking behind it. Canelo has always struggled against guys with good jabs, Kovalev's is the best he's been against since Mayweather or GGG. Only far heavier, more active, and maybe even better. Canelo didn't fare too well in either of those cases did he?

I go back to the body argument. The only one who effectively went to the body was Ward. Canelo Alvarez is NO ANDRE WARD. Andre had to deploy every trick in the book to slip, bob, weave, plow, slide, smother, hold, clinch and wrestle his way to get inside and land every one of those body shots. And let us not forget, it took him 12 whole rounds the first time around to figure out exactly how to pull that strategy off. And it's not like Kovalev is going to go all GGG, and make himself an available target.

The Gas Tanks of both men.

Is Kovalev's gas tank really as bad as we think it is? After all, he got lazy and wild against Eleider. Against Yarde, he slowed down in the middle, then caught a second wind. We'll never know if he'd have had one of those second winds against Ward. But judging by how he bounced back against Yarde, it's not an impossibility. Regardless, he was still very active into the 10th (96 thrown) and 11th (52) against Yarde and all the way to the end of the 12th with Eleider (56, 57, 78). Compared to Canelo's 38, 51, 58 against Jacobs.

How about Gasnelo's? He was running on fumes by the 6th against Jacobs, was eating bombs in the 9th and 10th, and was dead on his feet, thankfully, Danny was about as gassed as he was. Not to mention, he gassed in the last 5 or 6 against GGG both times. It wasn't quite as noticeable, but I noticed, and many others did as well.

175 is Kovalev's natural weight. 160 is Canelo's natural weight, and the reality is, he's just a stocky 154lber, his stamina and gas tank didn't improve at 160 all that much, who's to say it wouldn't have emptied against Fielding had it gone past 5? I can almost guarantee his stamina probably wouldn't have been stellar. At 175, he'll be flat out chunky, overweight, dare I say fat. Will his gas tank expand or contract even more? My bet is on he'll be gassed by the 5th.

So do the math, it's really hard to get past Kovalev's jab for the first 6-7 rounds. You have to soak up a ton of damage to get your licks in, well by the time the 8th rolls around, Canelo will ... wait.... gassed two round before that. So after taking punishment for 6 or 7 rounds, eating heavier shots than he ever has to date. Will Canelo have the energy to launch a full on sustained body attack in the 8th and 9th? And with his lack of power, will Kovalev even notice? After all, he stood up to Yarde's much heavier damn near Cruiserweight shots, and came back even stronger.

Canelo's gas tank is every bit as bad, if not far worse than Sergey's. Sooner or later this is going to prove to be quite detrimental to the Ginger One. Is moving up to 175 and taking on one of the heaviest handed fighters in the sport before you've even faced anything resembling a threat at 168 a way to test it?

And think about this for a few second.

Canelo barely beat Golovkin and Jacobs at 160, arguably lost to both.
Kovalev barely beat Ward, and got robbed against. ANDRE WARD, I repeat ANDRE WARD.

He OUTBOXED ANDRE WARD. Got it? The same Ward that would dominate Golovkin and Canelo from bell to bell. And throw in outboxing Eleider Alvarez, Jean Pascal and Bernard Hopkins for good measure. Canelo can't even convincingly outbox Danny Jacobs and Erislandy Lara.

There's levels here. Canelo and GGG's level is being overestimated, Sergey as it has for years, is consistently being underestimated. But here's the reality, anyone who can say he outboxed Andre Ward.

He's not going to be mother****ing easy to outbox.

Who knows what will happen. But if I had to hedge my bets, I go with the Champion at 175. And by stoppage.

Canelo got rocked by GGG and Jacobs. If he gasses bad enough to where he can't defend himself, I shudder to think what could happen to him here. There's every possibility that the judges won't even be needed to save Canelo. And even if he does make it to the final bell. Losing 12 rounds running for your life shelled up in survival mode, isn't going to get him the decision. It didn't work out too well for Mikey did it? Getting smacked out around in a one sided beatdown isn't a good look. Not even the Vegas judges will be that blind.
Click to expand...

Epic post, I agree with you. I think he might of bitten off more than he can chew.

Nonito Smoak · Sep 10, 2019

I feel like the only way of having superb "this isn't a great fight" confidence in a Canelo victory is to emphasize that in hopes of downplaying the potential Canelo victory. We all, some more than others, have doubted him too much in the past.

BCS8 · Sep 10, 2019

Beouche said: ↑

This. We're not gonna see Gasnelo in this fight. We're gonna see the return of the 12 round monster tank
Click to expand...

I'm hoping CST is right though. Kovalev turning Gingerelo to paste would brighten my day.

Beouche · Sep 10, 2019

BCS8 said: ↑

I'm hoping CST is right though. Kovalev turning Gingerelo to paste would brighten my day.
Click to expand...

#metoo

CST80 · Sep 10, 2019

AlFrancis said: ↑

Epic post, I agree with you. I think he might of bitten off more than he can chew.
Click to expand...

Thank you! And dammit I hope so.

Log in or Sign up

My Initial Thoughts On When The Chelyabinsk Krusher Meets The Cinnamon Boy Of Guadalajara.

Eggman "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better! Full Member

kirk l l l Staff Member

Juan carlos Active Member Full Member

Eggman "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better! Full Member

RingKing75 Boxing Junkie banned Full Member

BCS8 VIP Member

Mr Icaman 32-0 WBC Champ, Ring + Lineal HW Champ Full Member

Beouche Juan Manuel Marquez Full Member

Robney ᴻᴼ ᴸᴼᴻᴳᴲᴿ ᴲ۷ᴵᴸ Full Member

Dirsspaardis Boxing Addict Full Member

AlFrancis Boxing Junkie Full Member

Nonito Smoak Ioka>Lomo, sorry my dudes Full Member

BCS8 VIP Member

Beouche Juan Manuel Marquez Full Member

CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

Log in or Sign up

Forums

My Initial Thoughts On When The Chelyabinsk Krusher Meets The Cinnamon Boy Of Guadalajara.

Eggman "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better! Full Member

kirk l l l Staff Member

Juan carlos Active Member Full Member

Eggman "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better! Full Member

RingKing75 Boxing Junkie banned Full Member

BCS8 VIP Member

Mr Icaman 32-0 WBC Champ, Ring + Lineal HW Champ Full Member

Beouche Juan Manuel Marquez Full Member

Robney ᴻᴼ ᴸᴼᴻᴳᴲᴿ ᴲ۷ᴵᴸ Full Member

Dirsspaardis Boxing Addict Full Member

AlFrancis Boxing Junkie Full Member

Nonito Smoak Ioka>Lomo, sorry my dudes Full Member

BCS8 VIP Member

Beouche Juan Manuel Marquez Full Member

CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member