My first instinct (usually the right one) told me easy win for Canelo.... But the closer we get to fight night , im leaning more and more for Kovalev
Im kinda the opposite to you in this. Personally, Im seeing most analysts going with Canelo, including bookies, and Im kinda scratching my head as to why all these knowledgeable boxing people are all picking Canelo. Guess we will see.
This fight and everything surrounding it is completely surreal. It wasn't too long ago tough-chinned Cleverly was describing how he'd never tasted power like Kovalev. And Canelo was struggling to put away LMWs. Fast forward a few years. Roach thinks Canelo will destroy Kovalev in 6 rounds, and then should stay at 175lbs, where Beterbiev could be tricky, but anyway. What the hell is going on, lol. If Roach is even half accurate, then Paulie Malignaggi must be 100% accurate about this. In a way, I understand people saying Canelo is so slippery he could avoid the power over 12 and get the UD, that's possible under the judging circumstances, but the narrative is actually that he's going to beat Kovalev down. And if that happens, wtf.
Reminds me of those who picked Spinks over Tyson like the Great Bert Sugar and his wealth of knowledge to Sugar Ray Leonard.
How much of the odds are just based on Q rating? How well known someone is versus their opponent? I wouldn't be surprised if some of these bookies didn't know **** about boxing and were just noticing that Canelo has ten times as many twitter followers or something. That would be an accurate way to deduce the winner of most big fights, just because we so rarely have evenly matched opponents, two big names facing each other, or a smaller fighter challenging himself moving up. You'd probably go 3/4 if you bet that way. Most fights aren't competitive and don't require any thought. Or maybe, they have some algorithm like boxrec uses to determine that the guy with more losses must statistically be the inferior fighter which doesn't take into consideration things like opposition and robberies. I think most of the bookies make their money off of football, basketball, and baseball. They probably don't know the first thing about establishing a line on boxers. I really hope Stephen A. Smith picks Canelo by stoppage though, just so I feel a little more confident in my choice.
betting odds are set more on how they feel the betting will play out than the actual fight. if they feel more bettors are going to bet on canelo, then they adjust the odds to to how they feel the bets on kova will compare. lets say they expect 100 milion dollars to come down on canelo and 25 million on kova. they need to set the odds at 4 to 1 in order for there to be enough money from the losers, to pay off the winners. they dont want to use the juice to pay off winners. once the bets start to come in, odds are adjusted to reflect what is actually happening at the betting counter.
I feel like Kovalev will win. My point was that I didn't understand why it wasn't at least 50/50. Canelo has at least shown well in top level fights, even if I feel he didn't win them. If Kovalev can't stop Canelo though we've seen what happens so I certainly hope Kovalev gets decent credit if he wins. In his 2 fights with Ward, I had Kov winning more rounds than Ward and Canelo is nowhere near as difficult to fight as Ward. We'll see though.
Don't be fooled Kovalev has a lot left and what he has Left is definitively enough to give Canelo his first retirement loss. Its going to be really easy fight for Kovalev most true boxing fans know this and are not tricked by the hype, kovalev will be weighing NEARLY 190lbs, fast and strong. Have you noticed the build of KOVALEV? A tall and wiry frame but higher muscle density, he can whip those punches in fast and heavy, Canelo will be bruised up and possibly cut up very early, However I don't think it will be a cut stoppage, but a methodic fleet footed beat down, spearing those heavy jabs and hooks, canelo will do a final surge in round 6, down on all score cards and leave himself open, then..... Fill in blank...
Because most know the scoop. That Vegas boxing is corrupt wank and that Goldenboy wouldn't set the fight up if they weren't confident that Clenelo would take it at this stage. Hopefully they've miscalculated and Kovalev scores a bowel releasing KO for all to see. I wouldn't count on it though personally.
I don't care what anyone says Kovalev hits a lot harder than GGG Kovalev has much better footwork and a better harder jab. GGG lands the Jab more because he spams it. GGG has a better chin and that's about it