Would the rematch have been as difficult to predict as AJ vs Ruiz 2? Both fights the under dog not only outboxed the champ, but beat him up, dropped & stopped them. We now know intangibles of the 1st fight weren't known-like Tyson banging all the maids in the hotel. Since Buster said the loss of his mother inspired him would that fire still burn into a 2nd fight? Had the rematch occurred- and you are looking at a 1 loss Tyson, not an exposed Tyson, would you have picked him to win the rematch?
I think that Buster Douglas would have his number, just like Evander Holyfield would have Tyson's number in 1996, and 1997. Mike was not hungry anymore. Same result, Douglas knows he would have to maintain proper conditioning to achieve the same result. In 1990, after defeating Mike, Douglas was not hungry any more against a well prepared Evander, and lost.
We know Tyson comes better prepared as he knuckled down in the gym post Douglas, so the fight becomes more interesting from that standpoint. What we don't know is whether Douglas comes back as well prepared the second time or whether he shows up fat & unmotivated like he did against Holy, which is highly likely given his track record & the fact he would be earning substantially more than the $24million he did against Holy. Style wise a well prepared Douglas always gives Tyson problems but a fat one folds in 3.
I see this as a match up between Douglas from the Holyfield fight and Tyson from Ruddock 1. Tyson KO2
The biggest question here in my mind is whether Douglas would have shown up for an immediate rematch with Tyson with the same motivation he had the first time, or if he would be the version who showed up for Holyfield. Or perhaps something in between those extremes. The answer to that question is the key to answering the question in the OP.
Yeah it IS a tough question! Many rematches I have some confidence to predict, but not AJ VS RUIZ which got me to thinking about this one.
I tend to believe an immediate rematch with Tyson *may* have been an ideal situation for Buster. Everything about his mother's death was tied directly to Tyson in terms of his driving motivation that resulted in legendary determination. Once he beat Tyson, I kind of think he had nowhere to go. He was determined to win for his mother, he scored the upset for the ages, and then I think he finally started grieving in a sort of realization that winning for his mother wasn't going to bring her back. An immediate rematch between Tyson and Tokyo Douglas? MAYBE this could have allowed Douglas to emotionally tap back into that mental feedback loop. Maybe not.
FYI I accidentally changed your post (while trying to change my own just above yours) and I have no clue how to change it back! VERY sorry! My mistake.
Douglas would have been fat and out of shape and Tyson would have been totally motivated. Tyson would have been out to prove that the first match was a fluke. Tyson KO in 1 round in a minute.
Those touching on the mental aspects of the game imho are spot on. Tyson had reputedly been somewhat scornful and dismissiveof Douglas' chances before the fight and had spent the night before the fight polishing his wanger with prostitutes. Douglas on the other hand was taking Tyson as seriously as a heart attack and due to personal circumstances was ready to do or die. In a rematch - and particularly the longer the time goes by - the mental edge is with Tyson, who would be seeking revenge, whereas Douglas would have climbed his Everest and there was nowhere to go but down from there. Those bringing up the Holyfield fight are right to do so, because the BD that Holy faced was in no form the one that Tyson was up against.
I think Tyson would beat Douglas nine times out of 10. That one time he lost just happened to be Tokyo. Douglas was never that good again. In fact, Buster's quit jobs before and after the Tyson fight would lead me to believe a rematch with Tyson would probably resemble Tyson-Seldon or Tyson-Bruno II moreso than the first Tyson-Douglas fight. He'd achieved his goal by beating Tyson. He didn't care after that.
I've given this a lot of thought over the last 20 years. I'm absolutely convinced that Mike would have won the rematch. The result of the first fight was a culmination of Mike underestimating Buster and not training properly, and Buster having had an absolute will of iron due to the sad loss of his mother who he was extremely close to. We've all read Mike's account of things, and I have no reason whatsoever to question it. King lined Buster up, and Mike didn't care. He didn't watch him, he was out of shape, and he signed for the fight and just went through the motions. When he got to Japan, he hardly did any roadwork. He spent more time with the women there than what he did in the gym. There's still footage on YouTube of Greg Page knocking him down in sparring. Buster was in camp when his mother died. He could have withdrawn from the fight, but he decided to go ahead with it. And he put all of his anger and frustration into training as well as the fight. When he entered the ring, he wasn't intimidated at all by Mike. Because facing Mike was nothing compared to losing her. Psychology plays such a huge role in the outcome of any fight. I've always liked Buster. He was a good fighter. He definitely underachieved. But I don't believe the theory that he just had Mike's number. I've never believed that. A rematch between the two would have seen completely different versions of each guy facing off. Despite Mike trying to play it down at the time, that loss hurt him. He was embarrassed by it. If I look at things logically, had Mike have signed for the rematch, I've got to believe that he'd have trained as hard as possible and fought to his full capabilities. He'd have given his all to have avenged that defeat and to have gone out to prove a point to people. I don't believe that we'd have seen him out of shape again where he wouldn't have trained, where'd he'd have just gone through the motions. He'd have been fully focused the second time around. I'm absolutely certain of it. After Tokyo, Buster was completely flat. After the fight was over, he became depressed where he grieved for his mother. Although Evander Holyfield was a great fighter, he never fought the version of Buster who Mike did. Like Mike did, he just went through the motions when he fought Evander. His heart wasn't in it. He only went through with the fight because he was obligated to. As we know, he then had a long spell away from the sport where he gained a lot of weight. If Buster had gone into a rematch with Mike with the same level of desire he'd had in their first fight, then I think that we'd have seen a truly great fight. But I honestly don't think we'd have seen that. I don't think he could have replicated that performance. I don't think he'd ever have had the same desire and intensity. I don't think he'd ever have been as motivated. So although I've always had a huge amount of respect for Buster, I think that their first fight was an anomaly. So I think that had a rematch have taken place, Mike would have knocked him out, probably by the half way point. I can't envisage any other outcome.
I have to think that had Mike have signed for the rematch, he'd have been much more hungry and focused. He lost to Evander, because he just wasn't as good as what Evander was at that stage of his career. Evander was just a better fighter. But I don't think that Buster was a better fighter than Mike. He obviously was on the night, but I don't think that he was overall. Would Buster have been as hungry in the rematch? Not in my opinion. He'd already been spurred on by his mothers passing. He'd already climbed Everest. Like you've mentioned, he wasn't hungry against Evander. So I don't believe he'd have been as hungry had he have faced Mike again.