My take is Joyce has a great chin and is a big man !!! But he’s to clumsy and is open !!!! Dubois will knock him out badly before rds 9 begins !!!!!
I think Joyce will come out on top. People talk about his porous defence but when he gets caught he's usually chasing down an opponent who's looking to get away and gets countered coming in. That isn't how Dubois fights he will be the one trying to take it to Joyce and when Joyce has an opponent that is on the rare occasion willing to trade he usually adopts a high guard, blocks and rolls with shots and fires back and with the way Dubois throws and then admires his work, he's there to be hit by the counter. Joyce has the better jab and movement and he'll simply block and roll with Dubois predictable attacks and fire back in volume and slowly break Dubois down and stop him around round 6-7. It will be exciting early though as they trade shots but eventually the volume of Joyce will overcome Dubois' edge in power and he'll be forced slowly back more and more.
Dubois is like 12 years younger, and I think the younger man gets through some tough moments to get a mid to late rounds stoppage.
I've been watching a lot of both men lately, and Joyce is a lot cannier than people seem to think, while Dubois seems a lot more basic. Joyce is slow and clumsy, but he has such a high workrate, and punches at such weird angles that he's really hard to defend against. He's also very good at cutting the ring on opponents, and his jab to the stomach is a potent weapon that few fighters seem to be able to get past. He's also good at varying his speed, and his left hook can sometimes be surprisingly fast and explosive. Defensively he's open, but he's also kind of hard to hit clean due to the way he constantly bobs from side to side with his gloves up while stalking forward and pawing out his jab. Opponents are rarely in an optimal position to punch with solid technique against him. Dubois has decent power and is the more explosive man (obviously) but he's one of those guys who needs to have his feet firmly set to punch and doesn't tend to look great on the occasions an opponent backs him up. Doesn't seem to take a punch that well either, and looks to have the type of face that marks up and swells, while Joyce's face looks like it's made out of cured leather. Not sure if that's anything other than speculation though. I'm still a bit split on the fight, mostly due to how much of an unknown quantity both men still are, but my gut tells me the fight follows the familiar pattern of most Joyce fights: forcing Dubois on the back foot early with heavy jabs to head and midsection, then unloading those heavy slapping punches in close while manhandling Dubois with his lead hand to set him up for more shots on the blind side of the ref. I can see Dubois getting through with some heavy shots of his own, but Joyce rolling with them or blocking them while smothering Dubois in close and physically bulling him backwards to prevent him setting his feet. Dubois likely holds his own for a few rounds while wowing the crowd with some heavy combinations that don't actually do as much damage as they appear at first glance, but by the middle stages the physical and mental pressure will have broken him down to the point where it becomes target practise for Joyce. My one concern for Joyce is how he tends to be a bit vulnerable to the body. Due to the way he fights he's not that hard to hit clean to the body, and has been hurt there before. If Dubois goes hard to his midsection he might open Joyce open to some bigger shots upstairs, and as tough as Joyce is I can certainly see him getting hurt if Dubois manages to land clean on his chin with one of those wild swings.
Very good analysis. It's been some time when I've looked forward to a prospect HW fight (even though JJ is mid 30s). An interesting and intriguing fight. Yet other astute observers - like CST80 above - think it's DD that will break down JJ by mid rounds. Many varied views for this one.
Joyce by stoppage For some reason I think he can take better than dubois I think joyce has weaknesses and Dubois is pretty unproven but somehow my gut says joyce gets to him and stops him eventually maybe a bit like lemieux vs Rubio
I'm picking Joyce. Here's a few of my posts from right after it was announced. Granted, I should have been less flippant and more detail oriented, but yea... my assessment is pretty much that of @It's Ovah I think Joyce is a far more complete and technically proficient fighter than he's given credit for.
Nice breakdown. I think Joyce's jab which you've mentioned is going to be a key path to victory. Dubois hasn't fought anyone with a good jab that was willing to throw it and he doesn't move his head, he also doesn't move off the line he just plonks himself right in front of opponents looking to unload and so I think Joyce's jab to body and head will find it's mark with regularity. If Joyce can establish his jab I think Dubois will find it harder to get in a position to unload as he's met with a hard jab each time he tries to get into range. Where Dubois will be dangerous is when he can trade with Joyce. He is a bit faster than Joyce and his right hand is straight and true and I could see him catching Joyce by simply beating him to the punch mid combo. Joyce needs to limit these kind of 50/50 exchanges where he's at a disadvantage. You mention Joyce's lead left hand as a method to manhandle Dubois. I agree that would be a great tool but Dubois doesn't really do that very much unfortunately. Early on he was compared to Foreman but one key thing Joyce doesn't do is use his strength to manhandle opponents, pushing them out of positions to punch and setting up his own punches by doing this like Foreman did. If he did use his lead left hand more as a method to block, push, frame opponents I think he'd become a much more effective fighter, especially against a fighter like Dubois who has no head movement so can be kept away simply with an extended lead left hand as so would just be left constantly on the end of the extended left of his opponent and unable to cut the distance.
I think DD is going to drop the right hand clean on Joyce enough times to get a stoppage victory. Im not sure Joyce has much defence from hooks and uppercuts inside the wheelhouse either. But this is a hard fight to call because its unknown how DD will react to being moved backwards. DD right now is still green and inexperienced compared to Joyce. Beating Joyce will be an impressive victory for him. A loss won't matter as much for him as it will for Joyce so if I had to root for one guy it would be Joyce. At the end of the day this should be a great fight fight and thats really all that matters
