Unpopular Opinion: Fury Vs Joshua

But for your Wallin example to be relevant, AJ would need to be able to switch hit.

Also, Fury was using his fight with Wallin as preparation for the more aggressive approach he used in the 2nd Wilder fight. So-much-so he replaced his trainer afterwards when he realised Davison was not the best fit for this front-foot style.

He'd not fight AJ in the same way he fought vs Wallin or for Wilder 2, certainly not for the first few rounds. And Wallin moved well, something you admit AJ would not be able to do against Fury.

The Wallin fight is an awful way to try support AJ's route to victory vs Fury, AJ doesn't fight southpaw and Fury won't use the same tactics against AJ that he used against Wallin.

 

I suspect he will use movement on the outside, keeping clear of AJ as much as possible using his longer jab set up by his better footwork until AJ starts to tire in the mid rounds. Then when AJ starts to gas he will start to take the fight to Joshua and be more aggressive, as he was against Wilder. Fury's game plan vs AJ will be a combination of the Fury who fought Wlad and the Fury who fought Wilder in the rematch.

 

I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that Fury beats AJ easily. 60-40 Fury for me on this, but AJ certainly has a shot at winning. Fury hasn't had a lot of consistency in his career.

 

So how did Wilder and Wallin's body shots work in beating Fury lol. Yes Joshua is right to go for the body, every fighter should simply to change levels and keep opponents guessing. But it alone isn't the key to beating Fury as one his body is difficult to get to and as I said before it does nothing to lower Fury's guard and expose the head. What going to the body will do for Joshua is perhaps slow Fury down but only if he can land enough downstairs and Joshua isn't known for his body work and Fury isn't known to be weak to the body. It's all wishful thinking on your part.

As for Wilder going to the body, that's the only thing that was working for him most of that first fight, he couldn't land a jab or a right hand for 34 mins of that 36 min fight so all he had was the odd body punch.

I'm not saying he couldn't finish Fury off, if anyone can do it, it's Joshua. But Fury has shown he is very hard to put away and Joshua has shown he can't sustain an all out attack for long without gassing and getting tagged and then being the one worked over much like how Fury did to Wilder.

I agree Ruiz is a stylistic nightmare for one part of Joshua's game. Joshua is the best inside man for his size right now, which is why I've often compared him to Bowe. He fought the wrong fight the first fight and paid the price. But your assertion is that Joshua is all wrong for Joshua which I don't think is the case. Joshua has shown a weakness against movers has he isn't this pressure fighter you've reinvented him as, he's boxer/counter puncher and has been ever since the Whyte fight when he learned he couldn't just walk through everyone.

I not so sure Joshua can just fight his way out of every clinch. As good as he is at fighting on the inside a preventing clinches he can be clinched and Fury is good at it and also bigger and heavier than Joshua and if Joshua comes in lighter which I suspect he will do he will likely be giving up even more weight to Fury in the clinches. It's one thing to be 250lbs and clinch a slightly smaller Wlad but doing that at 240lbs vs a 270lbs Fury maybe harder to do. Whatever weight Joshua comes in at heavy or light it will add and take away from as a fighter. So yeah he might have better stamina than in the Wlad fight but he'll be weaker in the clinches.

When it comes down to it I don't think Joshua can make this the type of fight he wants with long periods on the inside. I'd love it if he could do it but he'll be fighting in a manner he isn't accustomed to against the best pure boxer he's ever faced, who's also bigger than him.

Maybe Joshua proves me wrong I hope so but I still won't agree that Joshua has a style that poses Fury more problems than vice versa. If Joshua wins it will be in a fight he's losing, Joshua's biggest upside for me in this match up is his ability to turn fights around suddenly when he's struggling. If Fury gets complacent when in total control that's when Joshua could upset the clash of styles.

 

As always from you very astute, that's how I think he'll fight AJ too.

I think he'll also do what he did vs Wilder and keep the lead left extended to create a barrier against Joshua just rushing him. Joshua has little head movement, he won't be able to slip or roll under the lead left hand like some fighters can and that will keep Joshua at arms length for most of the fight by employing this tactic.

 

I think that was more to do with how fury fought that night. Usually when fury fights he backtracks when the opponent goes forward to throw. Wilder and klitchko done the same a lot against the smaller man...frustrates the opponent. Fury never really used it against wallin. He underestimated him.

 

I don’t think Joshua is all wrong for Fury but he’s got the best shot at beating him out of all the current HWs at the moment.

And despite Fury’s comments, Fury knows this too I’d imagine so think he will box from range unless Joshua tires and only then will we see him come forward and engage.

On the flip side, if Joshua does manage to hurt Fury, I think he’s a good enough finisher to take him out.

It will be cagey, most likely a points win for Fury or late stoppage. With a Joshua KO a possibility too, less of a possibility, but it’s for sure a possibility.

 

Why would a lead left hook be any more successful with his guard down? his guard is already down, he doesn't employ a high guard to block shots, he uses head movement. So one going to the body doesn't bring his guard down, it's already down and he doesn't need it up to avoid Joshua's lead left hook.

Yes Wilder landed to the body but he only landed 27 body shots the entire fight. It may have looked like more but only because he landed so little else to Fury's head. Joshua is better than Wilder and I'm sure he'll hit Fury more than Wilder did as he's better on the front foot and better on the inside and has more varied and disguised attacks, but his work rate won't be enough to grind him down in my opinion.

Yes Joshua has shed some weight so he likely has slightly better stamina but in reality his stamina isn't much better, he just paces himself better not blowing his load like he did in earlier fights trying to get a KO. Just look at his punch stat numbers, he only threw 373 punches in beating Ruiz, that's 31 punches a round. Even in their first fight he only threw 21 punches per round or 27 punches if we only count completed rounds. Joshua did better vs Povetkin averaging out 36 punches per round but only averaged 32 punches per round vs Parker. I don't see Joshua wearing down Fury throwing between 21-36 punches per round, especially as Fury is so elusive, he'll struggle to land double digits each round with his low work rate.

Can Joshua prevent a clinch and break out, yes definitely he can, but can he do it often enough to win him the fight? The odds are stacked against him with his low work rate and being made to fight differently to his usual style. So your assertion the style match up favours Joshua couldn't be more wrong.

 

One hundred percent disagree you saw Aj vs someone with fast hands now imagine someone with fast hands and a longer reach and better footwork

 

Fantastic break down fella

 

Fury is more proven in the pros than Savon was cause he never turned pro, however AJ is better now than when he won the olympics and also when he fought Savon.