Fury-Joshua: odds and revealed public opinion

Despite it being hyped in some quarters as a 50-50 fight, Fury is a heavy favourite in the betting. For every £10 placed on a Fury win, there's a return of £15.71, while £10 on an AJ win would earn a return of £27.50. This amounts to a profit of £5.71 for a Fury win and a £17.50 for an AJ win: more than 3x as much. Despite the relatively meagre returns for a Fury victory and the theoretically massive rewards for a Joshua upset, 57.58% of the bets so far have been placed on Fury to win, with 35.35% on AJ. Odds of 4/7 for Fury to win equate to an implied probability of about 65%, with 7/4 for AJ equating to about 35% (with the remainder on a draw and the bookies cut).

This suggests that Fury is an overwhelming favourite with the public. If the odds were even for either man to win (as would be the case in a genuine 50-50) something like 75% of bets that specified a winner would be on Fury. This means that those who believe that AJ has a 50-50 chance (or better) should be betting heavily on him to win, as the market is systemically underestimating the likelihood of his victory. It also suggests that AJ is not as popular as he was a few years ago and that even his fans have little faith in him to beat Fury.

I suspect this is true of many AJ supporters on this forum. They will talk up his chances and vocally support him but won't be putting their money where their mouth is come fight night.

(If it goes the distance, don't rule out a draw even if AJ is thoroughly outboxed. Like Fury-Wilder or GGG-Canelo, this outcome would generate more interest in a rematch and make a trilogy more likely, which are strong financial incentives. A draw can also be split, majority A, majority B, or unanimous).

 

Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill offer the best odds on a Fury win at 4/7. You won't get close to evens though unless Fury's mind games manage to convince the public that he's badly out of shape and bricking it. So far there's been no shift but it's not impossible that there will be a late surge on AJ.

 

Paddy Power is offering 11/4 for a Fury KO/TKO/win by DQ. Might be worth a flutter.

 

£17.50 profit on £10 down for an AJ win, which is over 3x the £5.71 profit on £10 down for a Fury win. An AJ KO/TKO on paddy power would get you £30 profit for every £10 put down. If you believe that AJ has around a 50-50 chance or better, they should be attractive odds.

 

Mayweather-McGregor was an interesting one. The initial odds that the bookies gave for PBF to win were 1/12 and McGregor to win 8/1 but McGregor fans bought into the trash talk and the hype that their man, an mma striker, could defeat one of the greatest light middleweights of all time, albeit past his best. The odds on McGregor gradually shortened to 4/1 and the odds on Mayweather lengthened to 2/9 going into the fight. The bookies starting odds far more accurately represented reality but hype and the desire for an upset in Floyd's 50th pro fight skewed the odds to such a degree that there was a reasonable return for betting on his inevitable victory.

It's a shame the Pacquiao fight seems to have gone up in smoke. McGregor wouldn't have got the same hype this time but betting on his defeat still would have been easy money.