My initial analysis of the Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua vs Luke Tyson Fury contest

I have been asked by many including Wizbit1013 to give my breakdown analysis of the showdown between Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua popularly known as "AJ" and Luke Tyson Fury popularly known as the Gypsy King".

I have been hesistant to do this until we got an announcement that the fight is signed. Now with confirmation from Fast Car Eddie Hearn that all parties have signed the contract confirmed by Frank Warren on Talksport radio despite admonishing Hearn for not waiting until a joint statement was done with Top Rank and Queensbury. The only details outstanding seem to be the date in June and venue which I don't think will affect the outcome of the fight. Saying that the Gypsy King might have a preference for Las Vegas where AJ has never fought and AJ might have a preference for Wembley Stadium in London which has witnessed some of his greatest nights or Nigeria. Irrespective of the fighters emotional preferences my suspicion is that this fight end up either in the Middle East(Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Dubai) or South East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia or China).

First I want to go on record because it would be remiss not to publicly express my love, affection and respect for both fighters. To often we are polarised in this world and boxing is no exception. You can actually be a fan of both Mayweather and Pacquiao, Ali and Fraizer, Ali and Norton, Tyson and Holyfield, Hearns and Hagler(I would have mentioned Leonard but everyone knows as much as I respect Leonard as a fighter I never liked him as a man), Prince Harry and Prince William, Meghan and Kate, Sussex and Cambridge etc.

I love Tyson Fury he impressed me mightily with his victories over Del Boy Derek Chisora especially the 2nd fight. His performance levels fluctuate but that 2nd fight and his performance crystallised for me that he would defeat Vladimir Klitschko and be a nightmare for him stylistically. He is a fluid boxer for such a big man and knows how to box like a big man. He is a good athlete not a great athlete boxes fluently with some mobility and switch hits. Of course anyone who is 19/20 stone when putting their full body weight behind punches will generate some power but he is not what i would call a devastating puncher but hevis a very good puncher with punch variety. The fact he outboxed Wilder in the first fight was no surprise to me because skills wise the difference between them is like night and day such was the disparity that like Freddie Roach I felt Fury should stop Wilder and also noted Wilder is clueless when forced backwards. Some claimed he was improving when he stopped Luis Ortiz in the rematch whereas I disagreed he was getting worse with Ortiz winning every round but not stopping Wilder until he got stopped. Fury's fights with Otto Wallin and Tom Schwarz served the purpose making the Gypsy King sharp.

AJ is a tremendous athlete, a big strong powerful chap who took up boxing relatively late at aboiut 18/19 years old. He is the type who you imagine was winning the 100 metres races at school sports days and in competition as well as winning other events. Some have called the body beautiful a weightlifter which is wrong he looks like an Olympic Decathalon athlete to me. AJ is a quick study to win the Olympics Super Heavyweight Gold medal, World Championships Silver medal amongst other honours as an amateur from his late start to boxing is absolutely phenomenal. Not enough in my opinion is understood about this. As a boxer AJ is a boxer puncher in the true sense of the words as a sound boxer with good fundamental skills who can punch. He has fast hands and feet and his ring IQ and ring generalship is impressive. For most of his career he has been a wreaking ball and when the opportunity came to fight for a version of the world heavyweight title against Charles Martin I was one of those questioning whether the fight should be taken. This is not because I did not think he would win because I knew he would rather my concern was whether as a developing hot property he was being rushed to a title ahead of schedule just because the opportunity presented itself. I voiced my concerns to a top boxing trainer who is a good friend of mine who took the contrary view. He felt you might as well strike while the iron is hot. I remembered talented amateur boxers turning professional like Leon Spinks and Davey Moore rushed into title fights they won as professionals with less than 10 fighters then their careers going to tatters as they were not yet ready for the other big dogs as there is no hiding place when you are world champion. In this same vein I remembered Eddie Futch confessing he was excited when he realised after about 10 fights that his fighter Riddick Bowe could beat Evander Holyfield then the heavyweight champion of the world. Despite this knowledge he refused to ask Bowe's management to push for the fight because Bowe was not yet ready for the other contenders and was still a developing hot prospect. He also felt that Bowe was better at age 25 years than a former fighter he trained the great Larry Holmes at the same age. What I have found astonishing about AJ is his improvement under the bright lights which also goes to his fine character, intellect and mind set. He really went to school in the fight against a very good Wladimir Klitschko frankly more motivated, better and aggressive than I had seen him in years. The right hand right cross that Wladimir put AJ down with was a punch from hell which would have knocked out practically most heavyweights. The fact he recovered, peserved and went on to stop Klitschko says a lot. Some would refer to the first fight against Andy Ruiz Jr. Even though AJ did not seem himself and boxed strangely there are no excuses which AJ did not make nor am I going to on his behalf and apart from putting Ruiz Jr down heavily in round 3 before disaster struck I really liked the fact that he was not knocked out cold and kept getting up from the knock downs before the referee eventually stopped the fight. Reversing the loss and regaining the titles with a consunmate boxing display using his speed of foot and hand against Ruiz in the rematch amidst the pressure demons in Saudi Arabia said a lot. These improvements in AJ were on full display against Pulev in December where AJ got in 9 valuable rounds against a tough guy like Pulev. I like in particular the feinting, improved and improving defence, punch variety such as the jab to the torso, body punches, which I know Floyd Mayweather watching loved, combinations round the side to break the defence and those fantastic uppercuts, left hooks and improving jab. There is more patience, method and cunning.

I mentioned Fury's victory over Wilder in the 2nd fighter which was a tactical masterpiece but the big difference is AJ has some key things which Wilder lacks such as CLASS and SKILLSET.

Fury seems to be the favourite of the bookies and most going into the fight but the reality is at most this should be viewed as a genuine 50:50 fight. Both fighter seem to be either at their peak or approaching their peak at age 31 and 32. I think an athlete is at their peak between 28-32 so this is a great time for this to be happening. I dont like the fact the Gypsy King has started looking towards retirement in a few fights when you are going into this type of legacy fight. Emotionally Fury seem more up and down to me whereas AJ seems more stable emotionally. I think the fact Fury has been made favourite adds even more motivation to a highly motivated AJ. Fury is highly motivated as well.

Ultimately its been said before by other and I that styles make fights. I do think the styles gell as well. I see a battle similar in some ways to Larry Holmes vs Kenny Norton whereby after 15 rounds it was very difficult to split the antagonists with a very narrow Holmes win on points. While I expect a great fight I see AJ winning by knockout. I believe one of the shocks on the night will be how AJ's athletic ability especially his speed of hand and feet will play a big part in this victory. If Fury comes out like he did against Wilder in the rematch and it turns into Hagler vs Hearns then AJ clips him inside 3 rounds but more likely in an engaging back and forth boxing match I see AJ stopping Fury between rounds 8-11 to hand Fury the first loss of his professional career.

This is my initial analysis and will be looking at the fight build up press conferences, training camps and weigh in to see if I have to change anything.

 

If Fury try’s to maul AJ on the inside he will get clipped earlier.

 

I am sure you did read it.

 

Good analysis the only thing I disagree with is don’t be surprised that during the fight there will be segments where AJ is out boxing Fury.