It’s a good fight, the thing is is Usyk hasn’t boxed any super heavies since moving up but on the contrary he might be the most talented “big man” out there, his pure boxing skills are brilliant. I think size really will matter in this one, and even if Usyk manages to outbox the bigger man he will get walked down. I don’t think he has the power to stop AJ, which is a big problem when boxing someone with a ridiculous amount of power. I think AJ starts beating him up around the 7/8 round mark, after 6 close first rounds (maybe Usyk is 4-2 up) but then AJ breaks him down and catches him a few times. I think Usyk has a good chance of lasting the distance but he’ll be holding towards the end.
Has everyone here who is convinced Joshua wins this easy watched Usyk v Joyce in the WSB? I know that’s a different format entirely but if you see his approach in that fight, you’ll see that in a fight against AJ he’s going to let his hands go. For me, if anyone is going to box cautiously behind the jab in this fight it will be Joshua.
Your analysis sounds great until one watches King Plod in action and checks out his Journeyman status on boxrec.
Interested to know your thought process here, historically what has Usyk shown to make you think a 1st heavy flurry of punches would end the fight? He's very durable.
Why would he want to take less money without the rematch He'll AJ is the biggest money fight in the division, surely Usyk would be better off taking the bigger percentage purse with the rematch clause and then should he win, get an additional even bigger pay day in rematch ?
I doubt Usyk stops AJ and there is no chance they will give it to him on the cards unless he manages to put on some sort of master class, which is also unlikely. Then I'm sure the ref will allow AJ to pretty much get away with as much holding, leaning and spoiling as he wants. So all roads do lead to an AJ victory.
Good one. Natural and Joshua shouldn't really be put in the same sentence, as it shouldn't with the vast majority of boxers, but particularly Joshua. Joshua came in to the Pudding Pulev bout at 240lbs, and still did not look like he had impressive stamina. If Joshua abandoned the hypertrophic resistance training and hot sauce, the guy would be little over 200lbs and he is a legitimate 6'6'', or pretty much. The number one reason why he has poor stamina despite having the best of everything, is because he's carrying so much hypertrophy on his frame - anything but natural in either of the two senses. Usyk is clearly someone whose training is boxing specific. He doesn't have contracts with particular clauses he needs to uphold, nor does his ego. He's 6'3'' and come fight night he's a solid 220lbs, not full of hypertrophic muscle and the water retention that often comes with it, or fat. He will no doubt walk around closer to 230lbs out of camp. This is not a small guy we are talking about. And he has the engine to go with it - because he's at a suitable weight relative to his skeletal structure. Usyk could pack another 20lbs on within 6 months and look like a bodybuilder, but that would be to his detriment.
That was my thoughts too. Their thoughts on the podcast were that they (Usyk's team) resented the idea that if you beat the belt holder you're then pinned down for a rematch with the fight fee already set in stone despite holding the belts. Probably similar to how it went for Ruiz who had all the terms dictated to him despite the fact he was champ. Usyk believes that he can take the belts and then in return dictate what path he takes from there and how much he can make. Credit where it's due. He believes in himself and is willing to take less money for a potential bigger slice of the pie in future fights. To be fair, I hate the idea of rematches being put in contracts. If the fight is brilliant and close then a rematch will likely be inevitable anyway. Look at the situation with Fury v Wilder where the 2nd fight was conclusive but a contractual agreement means the division gets to be put on hold.
I just think that AJ will soften him up - sporadically - but the 1st really nasty intention shown will be Goodnight Vienna. Too powerful. Can see it being stopped against the ropes. Mid (6) to late (11) rounds. Cannot see this going the distance, Usyk will make one fatal mistake imo.
Same the other way round - Joshua turns into David Price when hit with even mediocre punches which saps all his energy and desire. Joshua needs to land a big one early or this could be a long painful night for him.