You can go right back to the 2012 Olympics for evidence of that favoritism because AJ clearly lost his opening bout in those games to the Cuban and the Italian should've got the nod over him in the final too
It matters because it changes the gameplan. If the officiating was fair then outboxing AJ and winning on points would be a viable strategy, if the cards are rigged then Usyk has no choice but to press the action but this also exposes him to more danger. However, AJ knowing that the cards are rigged for him could make him indecisive, in two minds about whether he should attack or defend his lead. Excessive caution may then be his undoing. We see this regularly, particularly with Mexican fighters when they travel to Britain. They're looking to take the Brit's head off, while the Brit is playing points jiu-jitsu.
Again, I question AJs stamina and by looking at how Usyk is training on his power, I would bet my money on Usyk winning by late stoppage. And no, he will be robbed on cards, just like Chisora recently.
There will be at least one judge who will be blatantly favouring AJ and the other two will be favouring him slightly. This doesn’t mean that Usyk cannot win a decision, under such conditions he can definitely win a majority decision or split decision victory. But if he does win there will be an immediate rematch.
Usyk has to beat AJ at around a 7/3 ratio to have a chance on scoring whereas AJ can win by losing 4/6. The good news however is that Usyk only needs 8 rounds to secure a draw. Through the miracle of time travel I can give you some advance Sky Sport commentary to help explain the judges unusual views: 'Usyk had some success in that round but I feel the more meaningful shots came from AJ' 'Another tight round that one but I think AJ just edged it with those strong last 5 seconds' 'It's flashy from Usyk but is it effective? I think AJ's work is definitely more effective and I have to give the round to him'
I heard Usyk's team agreed to a British judge provided it was Sol Campbell. But his request was denied.
Usyk will be dry bum raped on the cards unless he pitches a straight shut out. I can see Joshua dropping Usyk early while he's still getting warmed up, and that being the pivot that allows the judges to make a case for Joshua taking it, after Usyk dominates the mid to late rounds.
Joshua vs Ruiz will have honest cards because Joshua is going to be winning the rounds clearly anyway.
You have to be naive to think it won't favour the home town fighter, especially when that fighter is the favourite and the cash cow. But it won't be blatant corruption more your usual effect of the home town crowds cheers for Joshua punches along with the silences for Usyk's successes and a bias towards the favourite that is just typical in general. Plus with Joshua more likely to be the aggressor some judges will no doubt have a bias towards that over the more subtle boxing skills that a minority of boxing fans in general tend to favour which Usyk is more likely to put on display. If the fights remotely close expect controversy as Joshua will no doubt have at least one card giving to him by a landslide as we often see that it seems. But I don't think we'll see a robbery like Lewis/Holyfield 1 or Fury/Wilder 1 where one fighter maybe wins 3 rounds but somehow gets a draw.
If "at least" one judge will heavily favour AJ then it's possible that two or even three will. So the follow up statement that Usyk can "definitely" win an MD or SD is inconsistent. There will also be a near-immediate rematch if Usyk wins by KO, as there was with fat Andy. With the high likelihood that Usyk won't be given a decision even it he outlands AJ by a wide margin (including the very real possibility of a Matchroom stoppage late in the fight, especially if Usyk is winning) the only rational gameplan is to take it out of the officials hands and go for a KO, the earlier the better. This is not a long-shot either considering that AJ often gasses after three or four rounds, has a suspect chin and will start looking for the exit if you beat him up and drop him a couple of times.
People talk about Usyk as if he's ancient - he's 34. There's nothing wrong with that age for a heavyweight, especially if he's (ideally) only going to fight a couple more times. He's not in a situation where he needs to wait around 18 months for his shot at the titles. His next 2/3 fights could theoretically all be for belts provided things go his way. Joshua showed he can adapt to a style of a boxer who's not on Usyk's level. He performed well in the rematch but Usyk isn't the type to beat AJ, blow up in weight, lose all focus and then flop in a rematch. He's far too experienced, far too talented and has too much of a winning mentality.
