I have a difficult time envisioning Frazier ever beating Foreman. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt that he might have lasted longer in 1970 than he did in 1973
I see what you mean. You are correct. How could we know he was wrong for Frazier (in 73) without fighting him. By then George had to show more than he had so far. He had to show what he could do would really work on better men than he fought in 1972. We also would not have quite known of the difficulty Joe would have when he finally was confronted with someone that good for the first time since fighting Ali so much earlier. The effect of his hospitalisation had on his skill set. it’s complete unequivocal admittance that the game Frazier had after the thrilla in manilla stood no chance. The time line had moved even further away from TFOTC by then. you were correct to point out what you did actually. My reasoning was if a “style advantage” (if that is even a thing) were to be so set in stone, that it could overcome class and the proof that a prospect didn’t even have to prove what he had worked at the higher level, then favourites could be made regardless. And just base it on style. in truth nobody could know how good George was or how much Joe had left after winning such an important fight two years earlier. Frazier had won the greatest fight in history but it nearly killed him.
He lasted longer in 76 than he did in 73 despite being washed out. He was over confident in 73 and frankly dis-interested in anyone not named Ali.
Frazier wins. I won't be convinced otherwise. Frazier was more distracted and out of shape in 73 than Tyson was when he was losing to McBride. The fact a washed out but motivated Fraizer in 76 actually took rounds off a very sharp confident Foreman says everything.
What happened in that 1973 Kingston fight is what happens whenever a big puncher gets off first, lands all of his punches before the other guy gets started. Whenever this happens it’s okay to imagine a different fight without that guy getting the upper hand so early. Because only one guy was landing.
Foreman was able to land the punches before Frazier got started because this was a flaw in Frazier's game plan even before their actual showdown in Jamaica. He was vulnerable early against Bonavena having been dropped twice. We later saw him get staggered badly by Ali early in their 2nd bout. Frazier got stronger as the fight progressed. Foreman knew that and pounced on him early and established the range with his jabs, pivoting, and shoving. He would not allow Frazier to get set or get into his comfort zone. And then he started timing the bobbing and weaving to set up his uppercuts. Part of the reason he was able to get his shots off first is because of the reach and height difference. There was a lot more going on than just "big puncher landed first and the fight ended".
it isn’t that simple. Bonavena closed the gap. Different fighter. Prime Frazier could pick guys off on the way in. By 1973 That was gone. In 71, before the hospitalisation, He was meeting Ali at range in the first round. Same reach deficit. At times beating Ali to the draw with his stutter step. Ali was Harder to hit. Yet Frazier was timing him with his best punches in every single round. There is an element of Frazier not getting off as early as he should but really and truly most of it was down to Joe having lost his ability to land at range and not being switched on for Foreman. I was simplifying things but basically, if the shorter man has lost his long range game, the ability Frazier showed to meet Ali at range, then it is as simple as saying this it what happens when just one guy is landing. An example of the bigger guy landing first and staying on top before the other guy gets going because the competitive element has been taken away. And it was taken away with wear and tear. If you like, you can say, that version of Frazier was always wrong for George Foreman. But by that token, you also have to say, this wasn’t the only version of Joe Frazier. yes Foreman established the range because since TFOTC Joe had lost the ability to win the draw.
Foreman executed the perfect plan, he used his jab to stir Frazier into uppercuts. He wasn't even try to land the jab, he just used it to make Frazier bob. Frazier at this point was in fact out of shape, lazy, trying to become a musician, and under the impression he could walk through Foreman. The rematch, Frazier made an effort to slip not only the jab but EVERYTHING he could, and counter. Frazier made a good effort of this but ran out of gas as he was pretty washed up. Foreman to his credit was more conservative in this bout as he knew what Frazier was trying, it's actually Foreman's most mature and best overall effort from his first career.