Joshua vs Usyk, how good of a chance does Usyk have?

Usyk looked good vs Chisora for the most part, however he really struggled in the clinch and was clearly much weaker than Chisora, AJ is very good on the inside and he'll want to get inside to land combinations on Usyk, I reckon Usyk bulking up is to counter AJ on the clinch and be able to hang in there with him if he has to

 

he also definitely should increase training for clinch too.
For example vs Briedis he fall down when this just pushed him and this is evidence how effective he might be in clinch fight in real.
Usyk was enough popular in this country where Briedis is tickets seller and looks that this had prevented him to offer dirtyboxe vs Usyk cos fear to loss fanbase.
Then Usyk, who definitely had figured out this reality and knew pros / cons for Briedis ( both of them had sparred with Klits bros a lot ): Briedis hates movers with good jab and loves boxers who are predictable and are attempting to KO him.
He did not had fall in common his trap: stepping back closer to ropes what looks as ring generalship over Briedis for commentators and high percentage of boxing fans too. It is trap, to step back, encourage attacker to attempt land KD /KO punch and counter this. Briedis alone without this hits very hard for his size and weight in normal situation, and if you are rushing forward and he goes back, you throw and when you start to throw, he moves forward a bit and counter this.
Usyk did not had failed in this trap like stuff. To maul him in clinch he could not afford cos non fighting abilities reasons and Usyk barely won this one with more jabs landed, that's all.
For jab fight Usyk had advantage as am superstar, Briedis was not even euro level medalist in am boxing. While his jabs are almost like power punches, they are slow, with lower output than Usyk's jabs and Usyk had a bit better legs and agility then.
Good gameplan and some advantages and he had won this one.

Vs Gassiev he knew that he should not allow Gassiev to get enough time to set up really properly his punches and in order not to allow this he produced insane work rate to produce a lot of punches, move a lot and with this he achieved his goal.

Usyk is smart guy, he might adapt to opponent.
His minuses are very long mileage in ams + serious mileage in pros cos he had bunch with opponents in their real phyiscal prime in this then shark tank called CW division top.

 

I think he probably loses a decision. He really needs to make Joshua work hard to gas him out and take the 2nd half of the fight.

 

It won't be easy for Joshua but he can and should be able to keep Usyk on the end of his jab. Can forsee a cagey Joshua taking no risks.

Expect Usyk to do his usual slow start and step it up from round 3 or 4.

Definitely Joshua's biggest test and hoping for a clear winner.

 

This. Some people will never be satisfied. Usyk won the fight by a mile.

That said people are selling Chisora short, since despite being past his prime Chisora is very experienced and his ability to slip punches made it a challenge for Usyk to land clean on him in the early rounds.

 

Who knows? As always, I hope it's an entertaining fight. I will certainly be watching.

My hope is that Joshua scores a spectacular KO. A lopsided 12-round decision or, worse, a controversial decision win, would not be good for Joshua (or the division) at this point.

Truthfully, a Tyson-Spinks type demolition win would rejuvenate his career and really lift Joshua's reputation. Anything short of that will probably be dismissed, given Usyk is middle-aged, significantly lighter and moving up.

People here tend to cut Joshua a lot of slack but the performances that brought him so much acclaim are disappearing in the rear view mirror.

A loss would really be catastrophic for his reputation going forward, worse than the Ruiz loss.

Joshua can't fall to 24-2 and lose all the belts again this year (rematch clause or not).

He needs to dominate against this opponent.

 

Im not so sure about that...

If AJ scores some strong rounds early, especially with a KD or two, it would take something not far off a miracle for Usyk to win enough rounds beyond dispute, and given champions at home always get the benefit of the doubt with close rounds, he'd need to.

Unless you believe Usyk is getting a KO, and I just can't see that happening.

 

Nah, I just meant Pulev was kinda happy to let the rounds go by while AJ coasted, and I think Usyk would not let that happen. If he sensed AJ was taking rounds off, he'd press the action...

 

Sure and I agree that's fair.

What I'm getting at is, IMHO, unless he's got the power to score KD's or a KO (I've seen no evidence of that at HW, and as much as AJ's chin is questioned here he's been knocked down far less than Chisora and has not been knocked out clean which Chisora has several times), he's going to need a lot of rounds won clear to actually get the win on the cards.... And pressing the action he's got to be careful of counters, where AJ is decent.

Close rounds, with a champion fighting at home, are not good enough - those points will go to the champ regardless of who it is.

 

Totally agree. But AJ's gas tank is suspect and he does not like to be made to fight while he's recharging his batteries. That's Usyk's 'window' and he doesn't need to hit hard to cause damage to AJ in rounds 8-12, he just needs to hit hard enough and often enough. If I'm plotting a route to victory for Usyk it would be to weather the early storm and get to AJ once that suspect stamina becomes an issue.

AJ wasn't particularly hurt at the specific point he realised he couldn't carry on against Ruiz, he was shattered. Whether Usyk can piece this fight together and get the late TKO, I don't know. But if he wins, that's the way I can see it happening.

You're right though, on points in a close fight? Little or no chance...

 

I'm not sure I agree losing to Usyk is as bad for his reputation as losing to Ruiz was. Ruiz is an overweight, short fighter who has never beaten anybody of note (other than Joshua).

If he loses to Usyk its obviously a disaster for him but its not embarrassing like the fat Andy fight was.

 

I am feel, very feel good chance

 

If Usyk can come out and dominate AJ, winning convincingly (especially if he wins the rematch or its at least competitive), then there will be two general narratives:
1) "Knew it all along", AJ isn't as good as everyone thinks he is and Usyk was always likely to win.
2) "I underestimated Usyk" he hadn't proven himself at HW but he has now.

#2 is my personal position right now - it'll be interesting to see whether Usyk can step up that much against someone that much bigger and stronger than him.
A loss won't necessarily tell us Usyk's level (there's too big a gap between Chisora and AJ to decide that) but the nature of it will give us a better idea of where he is if he wants to fight again (which I'm not sure he will - I think the AJ payday is probably the main reason for stepping up at all).

 

Chisora is a much, much, much tougher matchup for Usyk stylistically compared to Joshua. Chisora is throwing a shitload of punches and comes forward all the time. It looks ugly and he's missing a lot of his shots but you really have to move all the time to avoid the clinch or the head to head with him. Usyk isn't a fighter who feels comfortable in the pocket or head to head. He can fight there but he doesn't want to if possible. He needed a few rounds to figure Chisora out and Chisora also came out hot in the first 3-4 rounds, he slowed down from R4-5 on and you can clearly see how Usyk took over. It's definitely a good sign Usyk was taking some bombs from Chisora without looking hurt. It was a decent chin-check at HW.

Joshua was outboxed by Pulev in many rounds despite dropping this guy like 10 times lol. Pulev has a decent jab. Usyks jab is world class. His foot work as well. Pulev is basically a poor mans Usyk skill-wise AND stylistically. And Pulev caused AJ some real problems in those rounds he wasn't hurt/dropped. If you think i talk BS...rewatch the fight. Yeah, on paper it was a clear W for AJ but if you actually rewatch the fight or re-read the RBR you can see how many guys scored rounds for Pulev or marked them as close. It was actually a close fight if you take away the KDs. But Pulev is old and shot. Usyk isn't.

Usyk will box circles around a very stationary and robotic AJ. I expect Usyk to dominate.

The only way Joshua can make this competitive is if he uses his size, strength and power. Unfortunately AJs inside game isn't great. He has no clinch game and lacks upper body movement. Usyk will probably avoid the clinch easily as AJ usually only clinches if he's hurt. And he's more a safety first boxer these days so i doubt he really going to trade with Usyk in the pocket.

I'm very, very excited for this fight because we'll see the TRUE class of Usyk. The Chisora fight is kind of misleading. Yeah, the first half was very close and Chisora had some really, really good success early on but so what? Chisora is a tough SOB with an unique brawler style. AJ is a boxer these days. Taking no risks. His chin might be diminished after the Ruiz fight.

Usyk by 8-4/9-3 dec OR late TKO.

Saying that...obviously Joshua has a punchers chance against Usyk. He's very strong and has incredible power. I think Usyk Decision or Joshua KO are the outcomes to have in mind with Usyk TKO being a realistic result if this goes to R9/10/11.