If Ali hadn't been forced to retire in 1967, who is the first man to beat him, and how early on?

Since we're just playing make believe, if Ali hadn't been forced into exile, in my scenario it's because the U.S. decided not to send troops or fight in Vietnam.

So Ali wins the heavyweight title in 1964 against Liston, he runs through the opponents he actually beat, and by 1967 he's surveying the landscape and decides to fight Percy Price, his 1960 Olympic teammate and the last man to beat him.

And Price, since there is no U.S. involvement in Vietnam, doesn't remain in the Marines, doesn't get sent on two tours in Vietnam. Instead, Price turns pro around 1962, beats Thad Spencer like a drum and is sitting in the top 3 in 1967.

And Ali loses his title three years after winning it to Percy Price, former Marine - just like he would lose to former Marines Ken Norton and Leon Spinks in the next decade - via hard-fought decision.

https://www.njsportsheroes.com/Resources/percyprice1.gif

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/black-soldiers-in-vietnam-741x494.jpg

 

I have researched this for years and I can not find any proof that Price even fought Ali (Clay). They claim that he beat Ali during the 1960 Olympic Trials which never happened. If anyone has proof, like an article in 1960, not years later, that this happened, PLEASE post it!

 

Age and diminished speed would have beaten him eventually. Pressure fighters would always be difficult for Ali, so one of them would probably have beaten him sooner or later. I don't see Ali retiring undefeated, and, even if he did, he would have launched a comeback. Father Time and a Pressure Fighter would have dealt him a loss.

 

Frazier would beaten him by decision eventually, but I think Al would have mowed over guys like Ellis and Quarry and the lot in the 60s.

Nobody could have beaten him except Frazier imo, and that would be the same pissed-beyond-belief Frazier of the FOTC.

 

If Ali doesn't go into exile, then Frazier doesn't champion him and help him out, which means any pre-fight amble from Ali doesn't work up Frazier to the same degree of relentlessness and intent that he carried into FOTC.

I happen to believe that a more mobile Ali of say 68 or 69 does beat Frazier as he has the legs to stay away long enough, the stamina to maintain the higher intensity but is also still aware enough to clinch and break up play where he has to.

Joe runs him close in 68 and 69, but a Joe that has gone through FOTC like conditions with Ali more than once isn't the same fighter as the version that fought him the 1st time around in 1971, so I am not so convinced that if he doesn't win the first time around, he wins numbers 2 and 3 - that is if Ali even grants him the rematches and in such close succession.

I think if Ali gives Frazier his proper respect and consideration, then it's Norton, that ironically, less great than Frazier, probably presents the biggest challenge as his skillset is right and Ali likely underrates him.

Ali likely has to meet Big George in the Kinshasa conditions to navigate him as he would be older and George still presents a massive hurdle ... or maybe not.

 

In my opinion, a prime Frazier always beats Ali stylistically and Norton always gives him a hell of a time, maybe winning one of three. People seem to exaggerate how much better Ali was from the rest - the top guys he was around, like Frazier, have the class to beat Ali, or atleast give him serious trouble, on any given night. Ali was the most talented but it's asinine to believe he's so far removed that he would 'dominate' Frazier, especially when he struggles with him stylistically. People like Yank and Futch knew how to exploit Ali's style, it's flaws, and they would figure it out at any point in time.

People also seem to neglect that the exile gave Ali a long period of rest and development of man strength, in turn 'increasing' his durability. He also knew he had to box smarter and consequently developed as a veteran, something he did not do as a younger man in the '60s. '60's Ali did not have these qualities, and many people are doing that thing again of projecting the qualities of an older Ali onto the younger one to make him a hypothetical H2H freak.

 

I doubt Frazier would win.

I'm pretty confident Ali would leave a little more than he'd have liked to in the ring that night though.

Prime Ali never really had to adapt to losing half an inch of speed or an ounce of stamina or a degree of flexibility or a millisecond of reaction time whilst someone was busy punching him in the head. Not that affects his greatness, he'd probably just be washed up a few years earlier.

 

The way Joe Frazier fought had something to do with Ali wearing down. He cut the ring very well and he didn't allow his opponent to rest at all. The body attack also had an impact.

 

I believe that Ali would have beaten Frazier twice circa 1968/69 decisively by decision. There would n't have been much demand for a third bout. In consequence Joe retires. Fast forward to the early 70s and a banana skin named Ken Norton pips a complacent champion by split decision. Muhammad wins the rematch and time,only minus Frazier,reverts to it's original course.

 

I'd say Frazier anytime after 69. Might well be the second fight in the series, since I think Ali probably shades him over 15 if they meet in the latter part of '67.

 

Eddie Futch was actually calling the shots in Frazier's camp. He was pretty wise about bringing a fighter along. I don't think he would have put Joe in there until he believed he could win.

In 1970 when Ali was in exile he would travel around to different gyms to sparr. He carried boxing equipment in his trunk. He was at the Hoover Street gym in LA where Fuch trained. Ali sparred with a couple guys and big crowd developed. Next guy up was Kenny Norton.
Futch tells Norton not to be a wise guy. Try to learn what you can. Ali boxes about 2 minutes with Norton (Kenny was awkward) Ali decides the kid can't fight. Norton had been laying back. Ali steps back and announces "ok Boy! I'm gonna put something on you!" Ali opened up on him. Norton more than held his own, countering Ali.
Ali was embarrassed and came back to the gym the next day hollering "I want Norton! Where's that Norton"?. Eddie Futch kept Kenny in Street clothes. Wouldn't let him spar. Ali wanted to know why?
Eddie Futch replied " Yesterday you came in for a workout, today you came in for a fight. When this kid fights you he's gonna get paid and paid well."

Eddie was a wise little old Owl.

 

I think the danger for Ali in the 1st encounter would be overconfidence. He sized Frazier up and didn't think he was as good as he was. Too small etc. That was after Joe had wrecked the division more or less.
Once the bells rings it would be too late.

 

I see it the same way:
Norton, Frazier, Foreman are potential candidates if Ali underestimates them. Let's face it: in 1974 Foreman underestimated Ali. All the journalists had already declared him as the winner. That changed something in his mindstate. He was badly prepared, he couldn't acclimatize and his demons were already with him. Ali fought many fights a year. Sometimes 3 fights within 4 months. Sooner or later, he would have faced an opponent who would have been better that day. I think one of the three would have beaten him by 72/73. Here are my probabilities for the hypothetical ALI who would not have lost his speed and changed his style etc. As I said all hypothetical. Maybe the suspension had something beneficial. Maybe it made him tougher, more experienced and made him hungry again.

Frazier 69-69 | 25%
Foreman 70-72 | 25-30%
Norton 72-73 | 30-35%

I think if he had boxed one of the 3 without good preparation, the first defeat would have been inevitable at some point. Maybe he would have underestimated the planned rematch against Floyd in 1968. He had humiliated him in 1965...when Floyd went into the fight with a back injury. And Ali didn't looked good at all during the sparring with Jose Torres.

 

If you look at how Ali looked for most of the 70's he certainly was hungry, but not in the right sense.

Otherwise I agree, there were some dangerous guys coming in and there's always the risk that he'd come in complacement and overconfident and pay for it.