Showtime: Jermell De'Avante Charlo vs. Brian Carlos Castaño & Rolando Romero vs. Anthony Yigit RBR

Phew! I was getting worried.

 

Who you got between Charlo and Castano?

 

My take on the Main Event. If you wonder why i wrote such a long text, it's a betting analysis and i send this out to my customers and touted a small bet on the Argentinian underdog at +238. Not a big play as there are obvious risks with betting against the PBC A-side but i don't think it's a 70/30 fight in favor of Charlo.

....

There are a lot of things i like about Brian Carlos Castaño in this matchup.

1. Castaño is a pressure fighter, he's coming forward all the time with a high guard and throws shots from very different angles. Charlo isn't very good in boxing off the backfoot. Despite being very strong and powerful you can easily back him up. He's also lacking a consistent jab to keep his opponents at bay for the last few years. He changed his coach back in 2015 from Ronnie Shields to Derrick James and it looks like he just fell in love with his power a bit too much instead of fighting to his strengths. I'll come back to that in a few seconds.

2. Charlo doesn't feel comfortable in close range because he throws very wide and looping shots. He's lacking the short, compact and tight shots you have to throw in close range. He's a classic ambush fighter. He jumps in with a 1-2, 1-2-3 or 1-1-2 putting everything in those combinations before moving out of range.

3. Charlo is a fighter who immediately is going into the clinch if somebody is throwing too much punches in close range. I think he'll have problems to do that against Castaño. Castaño is the much shorter fighter in here. Taller fighters usually have problems to clinch up shorter fighters. It's just the anatomy. Once the taller fighter is in the clinch he has all the advantages on his side because he can lean on the shorter fighter but the way into the clinch is often tough and difficult bceause the taller athlete has to duck down a bit and is open to uppercuts and hooks and Castaño looked pretty good in avoiding the clinch against Patrick Teixeira who was also the taller fighter (even taller than Charlo).

4. Back to the argument about Charlo developing into a pure power puncher without a real game plan. Charlo is headhunting a lot in his fights. He gives round away and tries to take his opponents heads off. It worked out often in the past but he he's a guy who can lose a lot of rounds based on inactivity and low output. Castaño definitely has the work rate on his side here. He threw 95/round against Teixeira, 77/round against Omotoso, 72/round against a very slick and mobile Lara, 94/round against Vitu and 79/round against the French guy Soto. As you can see he's capable of throwing 80-90 shots against different kind of opposition (style-wise). In comparison Charlo threw 35/round against Rosario, 52/round against Harrison in the rematch, 46/round against Harrison in the first fight and 35/round against Trout. The numbers are pretty clear and there is a good chance we'll see Charlo headhunting the shorter Castaño and Castaño being the guy who is outworking Charlo. Saying that i have to admit Castaño is probably a bit easier too hit than Harrison for example so we could see him throwing more punchen when he knows he can land comfortably but i still doubt we gonna see him throwing up to 70-80 punches per round. Just not his style.

5. Body shots and body work could be a crucial factor tonight. It's always a factor. When i do watch fighters i always pay attention if a guy works the body and how he reacts to body shots. For this matchup it could be the x-factor. Why? First of all, Charlo doesn't react too well to body shots i think. I think he was slightly hurt in his last fight against Rosario by a body shot and he just looks like a guy who rather gets hit to the head than to the body. Castaño is a vicious body puncher. And he'll definitely work the body against a taller guy like Charlo. As usual the body is more open for the smaller/shorter guy when fighting a taller guy who has rangy limbs.

There are obviously two big factors that favor Charlo: 1. His power is a game changer as we saw in his most recent fights and 2. he's the A-side and part of the "PBC Mafia" like i call it. It's incredibly tough to beat this guy on points. I mean he already lost once but still...for some reasons the Charlo brothers getting ridiculous scorecards all the time and it isn't different with Jermell. He got some crazy cards in the Trout fight, he also got them in the Harrison rematch (i know it doesn't matter as he stopped Tony but still...he was clearly losing that fight until he stopped him and two judges had him ahead...). Charlo could easily KO Castaño at some point and Charlo could get easily a wide decision even if he lost the fight or it was razor close so it's a smaller bet for me despite liking the matchup a lot for Castaño but i'm not stupid.

 

Only chance Castano has is via KO.. Even if he wins a clear 7 rounds he obviously won't get it

 

Unluckily for me..I am stupid..I think charlo points is the obvious bet but there's just enough temptation there for me to have a punt on castano 7-12 at 15/1

 

Charlo decision is definitely very likely. But i like your Castano 7-12. If he starts to land those body shots early i think he can stop Mell with body shots late.

 

Is this the good twin or the sucky one?

 

the good one