I've posted this very thing before so apologies for repeating myself but around 25% of the blood in the body is sent to the brain. When it receives a significant blow it is prioritised for more oxygenated blood to recovery from the blow. This means that muscles around the body are deprived of their usual supply and become heavy and sluggish. If you're a big heavyweight ripped with muscle you're going to be carrying significant power but the downside is that you have a far greater chance of wilting from a big punch. Bruno had the same problem...like Joshua he didn't lose consciousness or get proper bingo'd but he would be a prone target betrayed by his own muscle mass and left exhausted. Ordinarily, if he doesn't get chinned Joshua is an absolute specimen. He's a proper athlete. He seems to be more mindful of what the right weight is for him now.
If he chins him, yeah it's certainly possible. Ruiz isn't a big puncher and Joshua never recovered from that shot. That isn't because he has a glass chin it's cos they're really big heavy men and it happens. Usyk can hit hard enough. Usyk's best chance imo is to stay in the storm so to speak because he'll get peppered with the long jab if he tries to box from the outside. He needs to keep stepping on Joshua's lead foot and make it more difficult for Joshua to set his feet with his movement. Bellew and Chisora were both knackered from how hard Usyk made them work and it will be interesting to see if he can do that with Joshua. Personally, I think Joshua beats him on points or stops him with a combo.
Totally agree with this apart from the ending, i think Usyk gets him the same way. I believe Usyk will make him work because he is not hard to figure out and josh will be knackered, Joshua in this one needs the game plan, and i for one do not think he will master it...
Expecting Joshua to fade doesn't always work - ask Wlad. The onus is on Usyk to force the pace and not let Joshua bank rounds where nothing happened. That's the bottom line if he wants a win.
Slow starter Usyk will ‘give away’ the first 3-4 rounds which is a very bad place to be with everything else stacked against him promotionally. I’m expecting AJ to win a close and potentially disputed decision.
Wlad was 41 years old cherry picked by Eddie, 17 months ring rust, uncle. Thank you, A.J resume is not much better than Wilder's resume I think. Even Takam was previously beated up by then not enough old Povetkin before A.J had picked him to fight with. A.J is big and high level specialist to stop 35+y.o boxers. Appeared that with not enough old opponents like Parker and Ruiz Jr had appeared some unexpected problems. A.J most likely will win vs Usyk but his win vs old Wlad and row with over the hill opponents is nice thing. Especially guys like Takam via British stoppage etc. Best shape pro boxers A.J ever had in the pro ring were: Parker and Ruiz Jr. Result: KO power had disappeared somewhere.
I think he does have 50% chances vs Fury and more than 50% chances to KO Wilder if they will have fight.
My favourite Joshua moment is when he said in the ring after the Parker fight he wouldn't go to America to fight Wilder because 'gone are the days everyone had to go to America and spend a heap of money' and 'we can do it right here, it's local' then a year later announced he was fighting Miller in America. Man of the people is our AJ.
Well one from game plan versions might be this one. Why? Usyk is relatively slow starter and now looks over the hill. Usyk still does have good gas tank and better legwork than Parker for example and is more mobile. Usyk is boxer not boxer - clincher or spoiler. Since A.J despite moves pretty well for HW boxer and does have good hands, he not likely might have more agility and faster legwork, more speed than Usyk. To outbox in manner when you look impressive for fans not only MR judges southpaw who was am superstar and is more mobile than you is hard task. Of course A.J does have tools to keep Usyk at range for 12 rounds and try to outbox him, why not. However why to take such hard task if there is another way to win? Using Usyk's weak points? Usyk too had used his opponents weak points. Especially vs Gassiev and Briedis. While ppl claim that look, he does not have power cos he did not had KOed them. Especially cool was his solution vs Gassiev: keep him busy with intent not allow Gassiev to setup correctly his power punches. Usyk had threw damn a lot and with this outworked Gassiev, so plain and simple. Gassiev need time to setup his punches a bit longer than boxers like Usyk, Huck and Briedis. The attack from more athletic boxer with decent clinch fight training and with intent to throw power punches in rows since first bell, attempts to hold, grab and push, pull, rotate most likely will work on Usyk unlike vs Briedis ( there this had been recipe for disaster ). Usyk isn't Briedis or Okolie. So yeah, scenario when A.J might pick up choice to come in with high extended guard and quickly throw a lot, then attempt to close distance and clinch, grab Usyk looks pretty workable. If the likes of Okolie or Briedis had did this vs current Usyk's version, then he might feel not happy. Yeah, there is claim: Usyk had won vs Briedis close fight but this was prime shape Usyk in his prime peak. He had very serious advantage in am boxing skills, was a bit more fast, maybe some 5-10%, had reach advantage and a bit agility advantage too and very good gameplan. Usyk is from Ukraine, lads like Loma and both Klits might be good advisors and both Klits had sparred vs Briedis damn a lot. Looks that no one from them had get him down even once. Then if bear in mind also Briedis am fights ( looks that no one ever had dropped him legit for a count in am KB and boxing, not alone semi pro or pro boxing ) and how he hates good movers ( kind of lads he had lost vs in ams : boxing and KB on points ) looks that they had developed ideal game plan how to scrap win vs prime Briedis version on points for Usyk. Usyk even did not had failed in some traps and mini traps, where for fans this looked as Briedis weakness but it was a trap. Some 3-4 rounds were where he didn't failed in these traps. Usyk might be very smart if is well prepared. Will see, how they might adapt for western lads. From Chisora fight it is difficult to tell how he might look vs Parker not alone vs A.J. Yeah, Chisora had surprised him and won 3 rounds in row and then next round even and later: Chisora's gas tank started to decline impressively. Usyk then had not only speed and agility advantage but also already better gas tank reserves. Then he might had used these to win all next rounds vs Chisora. Since Usyk looks very pragmatic I can't tell, had he intent to KO Chisora at all or no. I think at CW he had maybe 3 fights when he attempted not to allow to go till cards : vs Bellew, Huck and Hunter.
Great post, Surrix. You make good points. The uncertainty is what makes this a genuinely good bout. It doesn't need selling. The unanswered questions and uncertainty sells itself. I believe Usyk will need to seek the knockout. I would like to see both boxers get hit hard, just to see how they react.
Good post mate. Joshua needs to lay off the weights and come in light, which it does look like he is doing. It's boxing, not Love Island, big muscles don't help you win, they hinder you in the ring, especially into later rounds and of you get hit and need to recover, like you say. I reckon he'll stick to the same game plan as he did against Ruiz in the second fight, Uzyk's smaller like Ruiz, despite being a better boxer. Uzyk should go for the knockout early doors, as should anyone against Joshua, smother him, make him panic, but it's unlikely that he will. Interesting fight.
Well, size, strength and weight does matters in boxing. Not only reach and skills. Therefore boxing does have weight classes. Especially if ref is lenient it does matters damn a lot. Even in sparring it does matters. When I had overall not bad, maybe even nice lad who was smaller and weaker than I, when he get too hot in sparring I usually initially attempted to " outmuscle " him in different ways rather than to smash his head with 100% power blows. Gym needs clients and it is not good thing if guys can't train due to injuries. If he was the same strength and size and did not get in his brains that I'm not paid sparring partner, then it wasn't boxing sparring for me anymore, I didn't cared they might cry about brutality and MMA / h2h like stuff there. Ruiz was with good hands and skilled, however with serious mobility and legwork disadvantage. Why not to use this? A.J had used. It was surprising how easily I could react and predict where he will move in the ring, it was surprising for top 50, not alone top 15 ranked boxer. Usyk will move in the ring faster than Parker and will be more agile. Ofc A.J will have weight, strength and power, reach and height advantage. However he will not have mobility and legwork superiority advantage like he had vs Ruiz, pretty opposite. Vs Ruiz he had these serious advantages: more mobile, better legwork, more agile and faster overall ( except hands ).
The problem with going Gung Ho early doors against Joshua is his power. Joshua is actually a good boxer despite what you read on here! And he certainly carries power. Usyk is an elite “boxer” though. That’s what makes this match up interesting. It’s a great fight.