I am always dubious about these smaller guys moving up to HW. Not every fighter is Evander Holyfield. Who has Usyk beaten at HW? An old Chaz Witherspoon, who was no great shakes to begin with, and Chisora, who although he beat, he struggled with - and I am by far not the only observer who saw it that way. Off this he's going to beat Joshua? I would be shocked. The most likely outcome is a clear beatdown, with a late stoppage - but I wouldn't be shocked if the end came early either. Either way, Joshua destroys this guy. Count on it.
I think AJ TKO 7-10. Yes, AJ is a flawed fighter, but he's also not complete trash either. He does have at least respectable power. It's whether or not Usyk can take the shots.
I can see a stoppage. AJ is bigger than Usyk by about 40 lbs of natural weight. He's got every physical advantage you can have and his skills aren't that far behind. AJ should win this fight and win relatively comfortably. A late TKO is a possible since AJ is a powerful puncher and Usyk is the much smaller man.
I'd be surprised if he doesn't take a count as he needs to be front foot and that means taking hits. Hopefully for him he gets a better ref than Parker got and can get Joshua out of his game plan which will be bank rounds and take no risks if that's working.
Usyk will only be 10lbs lighter come fight night, AJ will most likely come in around 238-242lbs while Usyk will be around 225-230lbs... now compare it to Chisora who came in at 257lbs vs Usyk, most likely 15-20lbs heavier than AJ. I don't think size will play as much of a factor as people think, the reach might come into play but I don't think the weight will be the decisive factor.
I believe we will see Usyk outpoint AJ but it's highly unlikely he will get the decision. As for Usyk getting stopped, personally I don't think so, but it's possible, it's heavyweight boxing, but in my opinion AJ isn't the puncher everybody pretends he is and I've said this for a long long time.
This fight is really hard to call. I can see almost any possible outcome happening. Either guy could win on the cards or by stoppage. For that reason, I'm excited for this one. I'm really scared of a screwy finish though. Either a Brittish Stoppage, or Usyk getting screwed on the cards are very likely.
I agree, also AJ fights nothing like Chisora, Chisora's entire game is coming in low, swarming, bullying and swinging, AJ is far more upright and more predictable. AJ will box, which will suit Usyk far more, I have a feeling AJ will box very similar to the style he did against Ruiz in the rematch. Also Usyk is a southpaw, who was the last southpaw AJ boxed? I honestly can't remember.. I think this could be a factor.
Wow, I'm looking through boxrec, I don't think AJ has actually boxed a southpaw as a professional. I can't find one, that's interesting, normally on the way up they always get you the odd southpaw just to tick that box.
One guy cut some weight and another guy added more weight than he needs. People in different weight classes handle weight differently. Ruiz can put on 20 lbs and he retains his handspeed. A cruiser putting on 20-30 lbs will only slow him down. It's kinda like Mikey Garcia putting on weight to fight at 147. Slowed him down.