You have to remember that it’s not just Fury’s size and weight, it’s his crazy endurance that he brings with it… Usyk is in awesome shape, but Fury can carry that size into 12 rounds easily also. Usyk will have to be constantly moving or he will get worn out with Fury roughhousing him
The best path for Usyk is to work that body like a lunatic from the start. I don't see Usyk landing that left to the head a lot against Fury tbh. But he can land to the mid section. Fury can take a body shot for sure but we saw Wilder having success with the jab to the body int he first round and Fury didn't like that at all. Wilder wasn't able to keep that up though due to his horrendous footwork and shockingly bad stamina.
Joshua also has very strong hands that keep fighters honest. Fury has the size and brute strength to overwhelm Usyk, but he doesn't have the power to stop Usyk in his tracks.
Joshua was jabbing all night against Usyk. All Usyk did was time it, get underneath it, and stepped in with his own jab and counter left. All night long. Usyk's boxing brain is immense.
The OP makes good points. Usyk is certainly mobile enough to use his footwork....But I dont think Fury will do what Joshua did and play nice...be controlled use the jab.. He's gunna step to Usyk and try and fight him, make it ugly, he's not gunna try and box him at times they will clinch, Usyk will be lent on, it will get dirty, it will get ugly and that's when size matters. Joshua didn't use his size.. He tried to outbox the master boxer...Madness.
My personal view what folks will se in this - if it happens - is as follows Folks will be completely surprised by how slow and lumbering Fury is made to look by Usyk; Fury has been made to look much faster than he is by his calibre of opponents Usyk will target Fury's midsection early and often Fury will have to fight at a pace which he is not accustomed having to constantly guess what Usyk's movment and feints are telling him - this will really show us what Fury is all about; to date he has always bossed and been the ring general in nearly all his fights, and the tempo is one he sets. Fury will have to adjust multiple times, because Usyk will have multiple counter adjustments Fury will have some success with the odd jab here and there, but his herky jerky feints and in-ring mind games won't work with Usyk like it did with Wlad Now, even given all that above, what it's going to come down to is whether or not Fury can hang with Usyk in rounds 9 thru 12, and to do that Fury is going to have to do things to disrupt Usyks rythym / gastank - target the body, ragdoll, get dirty, clinch and pin the slipper eel down; something that no one really has had much success in doing. That's what to me is most interesting about this fight:- When Fury has seen and realized after 4/5 rounds - like Joshua did - that Usyk is just levels above what he has faced before in skillset and technique - what will that trigger in him? IF Fury digs deep and makes it ugly / spoils and does whatever he needs to get into the championship rounds on some kind of level playing field, how will USYK then deal with being in somewhat uncharted territory - if anyone can keep up with Usyk down the straight it's gonna be Fury Still not sure this fight will come to pass, as the risk of getting schooled by Usyk will DESTROY nearly all the narrative that Fury has built up around himself - slick, skilled, fast etc. This is a HUGE risk fight for Fury IMO - and he will get HUGE respect from me if he takes it on
Wallin almost shut Fury's eye Vitali esque and the fight could have been justifiably stopped for the same reason Vitali was stopped against Lennox Lewis. So Wallin Absolutely was a 'LEGITIMATE THREAT' and he proved that to be the case. That's as clear as you can be to prove you are a LEGITIMATE THREAT. Yet, despite Fury finding out how much of a threat Wallin was, Fury still couldn't outbox Wallin. Fury made adjustments that amounted to resorting fouling, cheating and leaning his body-weight against Wallin in order to turn the fight in his favor. Fury at no point, was able to legally hang with Wallin of all people. So there's absolutely ZERO, and I mean a big FAT zero feat of Fury ever being able to legally out-box a cruiser sized opponent who is athletic and slick and especially one who is a southpaw like Usyk. Whenever he has ever come across one, he had to dump his 'boxing skills' and resort to being a bully throwing his weight into his smaller opponent. You're asking me why couldn't a 39 year old Wladimir Klitschko out-jab a 27 year old Fury? AS if that was pre-prime FUry, that was the best version of Fury we've ever seen. At least be honest and not dishonest if you want to be taken seriously. Regardless, the more appropriate question is, why couldn't Fury out-jab a washed up, old Steve Cunningham or a B level Otto Wallin? Why did he have to resort to fouling and cheating? Wladimir Klitschko was never once out-jabbed or outboxed by a smaller opponent, not once. He may have been stopped on his feet, but never out-jabbed or out-boxed over multiple rounds by a smaller opponent. Oh, and why did Fury duck a rematch if he was so good against Wladimir Klitschko? He knew he could only pull off one fluke victory, yes that's right, a fluke. He could never replicate that again because he knew he wasn't that good.
You make a persuasive case and it's one I can buy into. Hope they fight, and if they do we'll know inside the first two rounds if what you suggest translates to the real world. If Fury's size advantage is simply too much, that will be very quickly apparent. It's the core fascination of this match up...
Sorry but I cannot see Usyk getting the win unless he can knock him out. I agree that Fury is nowhere near as slick as he is, but equally Fury isn't a standing target like AJ. That will be a massive issue for Usyk as Fury will be able to avoid some of his attacks. Then you come down to the size a reach difference, this will tell in such a fight as Fury is quick enough to get his jab to connect and his weight difference and ability to hold on would start to tell a lot by round 5, which is an issue as Fury does have the stamina to go 12 rounds. Additionally, Fury would more than likely shed a stone or two so will be lighter on his feet like he was for Wilder I. People are also talking about Wallin, yes, Fury was in trouble in that fight, but equally it means he has had an opportunity to have such a fight so he now has experience of such a fight and tape on it that he can review. Fury is many things but he does have a good boxing brain and he clearly makes adjustments in training for his big fights as he did between each fight with Wilder and WK. As a result, he will work on that in any lead up with his sparring partners and make adjustments. Only way Usyk gets a win is to work the body all evening. He would have a chance of winning this way but he would have to be close to perfect and avoid Fury's jab and leaning which would quickly slow him down. For me, this fight isn't an easy win for Fury but for me he has enough to beat him fairly comfortably due to: A) his height and reach difference B) having good feet and movement for someone his size C) Having very good stamina.
How would they go to the canvas if they’re being backed up onto the ropes? Not saying this tactic would be successful against Usyk who is fleet of foot and wouldn’t just move back in straight lines. The jab & grab / wrestling / fighting out of the clinch could wear Usyk down though as Fury will try to impose his size and weight somehow.
If Fury is leaning on which no doubt he trains to do, i am sure a opponent can train to get to canvas or find way to use their skull as third fist. Fury playing dirty then his opponents need to get dirty themselves, Fury leaning on provides opportunity for opponent to quite legitimately stand tall at great speed, that is not leading with the head if it a vertical movement, see what his skull connects with.
Haye tried this against Klitschko and failed. It just makes you look worse IMO and could influence the judges in thinking you are being dominated by your opponent.
