An unbiased look at Wilder’s top 10 opponents

Comparing modern heavies with 160-175 lbs "heavies" from 100+ years ago is absurd, the only relevant comparisons are with other modern heavies. Wilder's HW record is better than all champs in the last 15 years with the exceptions of the Klitschko's, Fury and maybe Usyk. AJ blew it with his dropped 4 times, quitjob loss to a sub-6 foot light punching fringe contender and will soon likely have another loss. No elite SHW prior to AJ had lost clearly to a former cruiser, much less in their own backyard as a massive A-side.

 

Losing twice to Tyson Fury and drawing once, having two wars with him, dropping him 4 times and almost KO'ing him is more impressive than beating an untrained, 283 lbs Ruiz in the rematch, who absolutely destroyed you and made you quit in the first fight.

Usyk may have outboxed Wilder but 36 minutes is a long time to avoid a right hand from a very fast man with a 4 inch height and 5 inch reach advantage and Usyk has only stopped 3/9 of his best opponents (the three worst and all late: badly faded Huck, Mchunu, Bellew). Wilder has fought 7 or so southpaws in the pros and must have had a lot of southpaw sparring, AJ had fought 1 (1.5 rounds against Charles Martin).

 

One obvious problem with this is that Ruiz was ranked as the best heavyweight in the world after demolishing AJ. Does anyone really believe that? A rival interpretation is that AJ was badly exposed: his punch resistance, his defence, his ring IQ, his stamina, his confidence and his heart were all lacking against an unranked, short notice, sub-6 foot, light punching fringe contender. Other rankings had Ruiz promoted to 3 (which retrospectively was still far too generous) and AJ relegated to 4. After beating Ruiz in the rematch, AJ was No.3, behind Fury and Wilder. That still may have been overranking AJ relative to his actual ability but it's at least plausible.

But TBRB give AJ credit for a dominant UD over the No.1 heavyweight in the world after the rematch against an untrained, 20+ stone Ruiz! This immediately put AJ back in the top spot, as if nothing had ever happened.

Another obvious problem is that Usyk was ranked at 10 and everyone else AJ fought ranked higher, even Martin and Breazeale were supposedly stronger, more proven opponents!

 

Malik Scott has shown a lack of heart and ability in several fights. He ran away from Ortiz for 12 rounds, tried to quit. Probably quit against Chisora in a fight he was winning. He was coming for a payday against Wilder and didn't want to get hit with a right hand, so he quit at the first opportunity.

It would be like me claiming that AJ's Molina and Martin quitjob fights were fixed. It's par for the course for those types of fighters.

 

If Wilder had hypothetically KO'd a prime Jameel McCline, everyone would have said that McCline was a bum. But McCline schooled a prime Briggs, not the shot one that Vitali battered.

 

McDermott lost 98-92 on the cards and turned his back twice in the 10th as a 21 year old, 7 fight pro notice Fury was battering him. He never had Fury out cold on the canvas, beating the count by a second or less. By contrast, AJ didn't turn pro until he was 24 after a more extensive amateur career than Fury or Wilder.

Wilder's top 10 opponents are weaker at the bottom end and stronger towards the top. Wilder has Fury x3 and Ortiz x2 in his top 5, AJ has Usyk, Wlad, Povetkin, Whyte and Ruiz. But unlike AJ, Wilder didn't get battered and quit against a 25-1 fringe contender.

 

I don't think Norton gave Holmes a tougher fight than Mike Tyson and the consensus is that Holmes beat Norton more comfortably than Ali did on three attempts. This is despite Norton having massive experience against Holmes-esque opponents (Ali x3, Young in his previous fight) and it being Holmes's first championship fight: he only became a dominant champ much later.

Foreman openly admitted to ducking many fighters, in the 70's and the 90's. His 90's reign was a bit of a farce but his style (which was always based more on power and strength than speed and stamina) aged very well. Foreman became a smarter fighter with age and experience, as well as much heavier, so it wasn't a one-way decline.

 

I'm sure there is some kind of internal logic to TBRB ranking Martin and Breazeale above Usyk but we and everyone else knows that it has no relationship to reality. Did those rankings have any predictive power compared to say, odds? Clearly not, because AJ's closest fight oddswise was the guy TBRB ranked 10th. Conversely, AJ opened as a 1/20 favourite against 9th ranked Breazeale.

 

Sure, but you're totalling up the TBRB rankings of the "top 10" guys who AJ fought. By this metric, Martin and Breazeale were stronger and more accomplished opponents than Usyk. I'm saying that these rankings are totally flawed at parsing out fighter quality, regardless of whether they conform to TBRB's internal logic.