UFC 273 - Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns

Easy W for Chimaev. Very likely by KO in the 2nd or 3rd. I know a lot of people saying Khamzat has fought no grapplers and subpar opposition and guess what...they are right! But this is a great matchup for him. He'll be the MUCH MUCH bigger guy in there as a potential Middleweight against a former Lightweight and Burns really couldn't do much against Wonderboy in his last fight apart from holding him down. Won't work against Chimaev. Chimaev will make it a high paced grappling fight with some striking too and will take Burns out at some point. Khamzats BJJ coach in Sweden beat Burns three or four times in grappling so i guess they know what to expect.

 

I feel people are underestimating Gilbert Burns here, he's the #2 ranked WW in the WORLD, you'd never think that by the reaction of the people...

anyway I got Khamzat by 2nd TKO.

 

I can see Burns getting starched with a jab. Normally I'd be rooting for the savvy veteran over a hypejob, but I'd rather see new blood in the division within title contention - not another pointless Usman rematch against Covington, Masvidal or Burns.

 

Who cares about rankings? Who has he beaten at 170?
- Karate Boy who never faced a good grappler before and couldn't stop a TD to save his life or to win a fight
- a totally shot version of Tyron Woodley
- a 42yo Demian Maia
- Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko who are both nothing special

Burns was always overrated. He was pushed by the UFC because they needed new fodder for Usman as they can't make Colby vs. Usman every six months.

Burns is a good fighter but has some obvious flaws like a very suspect chin and very suspect cardio in high paced fights.

There are two options imo:
1. Either Khamzat will stand with Burns and they'll go to war -> Khamzat knocks him out in the first two minutes or
2. Khamzat will take him down and look for GnP...the result will be the same -> Khamzat via stoppage, but it might last a few more minutes.

Burns is a decent grappler but he has one submission win in six years. He's not so dangerous. Khamzat will pound the living hell out of Burns.

The natural size difference between those two will be ridiculous too. The weigh in will be on Friday morning and they'll fight on Saturday evening. I wouldn't be shocked if Khamzat weighs 200 pounds in the cage and Burns probably around 180 tops.

 

I agree with everything you just said, but I do think he is being underestimated by the odds, that being said I still think Khamzat takes this handily.

 

I think Chimaev will take care of Burns in the 1st rd. I think Burns in overrated at 170 and was never any good at 155. He's got elite bjj but Chimaev is just too big and dangerous for Burns imo.

 

What exactly means "underestimated"? How much % do you give Burns to win this fight? He's +400 on the betting market which means he's about 20% to win this fight? Do you give him 30-40%? I don't think that's the case. 20% is probably even a bit too much. The only reliable path to victory for Burns is either a hail mary submission in one of the early scrambles or a lucky punch KO in a heated exchange. I would never cap such a path to victory with more than 20%.

 

I say 35-40% is very pleasable, we know basically nothing on Chimaev other then 4 fights that lasted under a round, we will see him against an elite fighter (if you don't consider Burns an elite fighter it still should be fact this is absolutely his biggest test in his career).

 

I disagree. I don't even consider Burns as the biggest test in his career. I think Aliskerov was a mouch tougher test and matchup for Khamzat. Aliskerov is much stronger and bigger, a great Dagestani wrestler and more important a true Middleweight and Khamzat ragdolled him and knocked him out after he dropped him with a freaking jab(!). I think we might see Aliskerov in the UFC soon too.

I see where you coming from and i'm not necessarily disagreeing with your statement in general but i'm also saying if some bookmaker would offer me a -160 on Chimaev (~60%) i'd bet my house and car on it. Maybe even girlfriend and parents. Nah, just kidding.with the latter..but i don't see the path for Burns here outside a hail mary SUB or lucky punch KO.

Burn in my opinion took advantage of a very weak and thin 170 pound division when he moved up. I mean take a look at the Top 15 at 170:
Usman, Colby, Burns, Luque, Edwards, Belal, Brady, Masvidal (lol), Chiesa, Magny, Wonderboy, Chimaev, Diaz (lol), Neal, Salikhov.

The division is weak af. You make a run with two or three good Ws against well known opposition and you're in the mix for a Top 5 spot. It's a joke. Burns took advantage of it beating two shot fighters with a name (Maia, Woodley) and one guy who was on a run but was just a favorable stylistic matchup (Wonderboy).

Burns isn't great anywhere. His cardio is suspect in high paced fights. His chin is HIGHLY suspect (dropped by a ****ing jab!). His striking is basic and very robotic, he doesn't see shot coming which is the reason why he's hurt so often and so quickly. And his submission grappling isn't as dangerous an many people think it is just because he's a legit Black Belt in BJJ. This is MMA. Your BJJ 3rd degree black belt won't win you a fight.

Where does Burns win this fight? How? Do you think he outgrapples Chimaev? Do you think he can strike with a bigger and more powerful opponent after getting dropped 1000x times against Usman? Do you think he has the cardio to fight 15 hard minutes? Nah, i don't see it. The only chance Burns has is rolling for a leg lock early in a scramble or just throwing the kitchen sink in the first minute and praying for a TKO.

Maybe i'm totally off but i think Aliskerov was a tougher matchup for Khamzat than Burns as i said and i think Chimaev will absolutely brutalize Burns in the first round. Very likely in the first two minutes. But as i said...i wouldn't be shocked if it goes to R2 if Khamzat grapples. My money is on Khamzat KO +125!

 

Very good points here, I think we may have to agree to disagree, Aliskerov is not more proven then GIlbert at the elite of the game imo. The only reason Burns is having a chance on my odds is because we know nothing on Khamzats chin, cardio, etc.. and while everything looks promising, we simply just don't know.

I am definitely on the Chimaev hype train for this fight but I still am not counting out Gilbert.

 

I would agree with you 100% if Burns is some iron chinned cardio machine like Colby who could expose some potential flaws in Khamzats but unfortunately Burns isn't so i doubt those questionmarks - even if they exist - come into play here.

 

Chimaev is yet to have his chin tested and i think burns can bang a bit.

 

Dan Hooker defeated Burns with punches in the first round of their match in 2018. I see Khamzat separating Gilbert from his senses in a similar fashion.

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