AJ’s résumé has aged like an egg sandwich

Your claim that prime Stiverne would have "zero chance" against a fighter with AJ's deficiencies and vulnerabilities is obviously a foolish position. Even guys with far less power, durability and determination than Stiverne are given a 10%+ chance by the bookies. Stiverne would have been a live underdog in that matchup, especially if AJ fought him aggressively.

The only reason why Ruiz isn't regarded as a "PBC bum" is because he had one great night where AJ tried to exchange with him and came off 2nd best. Aside from that he's lost to Chisora-level Parker in NZ in a nip and tuck fight and had tough fights over the distance with washed up remnants of the previous era. Ruiz is pretty much Arreola 2.0 but shorter and fatter, a fighter that Stiverne was able to handle comfortably twice.

 

Wilder has been schooled and battered twice (once close to evens, once as a big underdog) AJ has been schooled and battered twice (once as a big favourite, once as a ginormous favourite).

Wilder is 36+ coming off two punishing defeats after a long and successful career, why wouldn't he contemplate retirement? Maybe AJ will too if Usyk hands him his 3rd loss.

Fighters at the top often come up with delusional excuses. Ali claimed that there was a racist conspiracy to give the first fight to Frazier, Foreman claimed that he had been poisoned against Ali.

 

40+, 21 months inactive Arreola had Ruiz on the canvas in the 2nd, almost had him down again in the 3rd, hurt him multiple times and went the 12 round distance, landing 109 punches to Ruiz's 161. The fight was an unexpected war, with Ruiz inactive ever since.

 

AJ-Ruiz 1 is the most humiliating defeat in history by a wide margin. Someone like Buster Douglas at least looked the part, people who didn't know anything about boxing would have made him the favourite. AJ-Ruiz on the other hand was seen as a mismatch on every level in AJ's favour, yet the self-proclaimed superior got destroyed and unlike Tyson, quit pathetically in the corner. The fact that you compare Fury's level of fat against Wilder to Ruiz's against AJ (they weighed a similar amount but Fury is close to a foot taller) shows you are desperate and have zero understanding of proportion. Fury has often fought on the backfoot and has fought much higher level opposition than pressure fighter Ruiz but still has a better KO ratio. He's also the No.1 HW, not a fringe contender 25-1 underdog who struck gold one night.

Usyk is a great talent but elite SHW AJ still broke new ground in losing clearly to a cruiserweight and in his backyard. Usyk would make Wilder look lost until Wilder landed a KO punch, which he has a good chance of doing against anyone on account of his length, speed, experience (he's beaten 7 southpaws as a pro to AJ's 1 and had many rounds against them) consistency and skill in landing it.

Tyson, Lewis and Vitali were all expected to win their bouts against Douglas, McCall, Rahman and Byrd in their sleep...yet they lost. These fighters have been retconned as top contenders but they were seen as journeymen or fringe contenders at best given next to no chance at the time. Their profiles skyrocketed in victory, just as Ruiz's did. Wilder wasn't as irresponsible, chinny or injury-prone respectively as these past champions, so he didn't slip up. A 6'2, 240 lbs fringe contender with toughness, experience, heart and power always has a chance, especially when the champion is having an off-night.

Not all losses are equal. Only a moron wouldn't understand this.

 

It's not the sole factor but it's a massive factor, otherwise there would regularly be huge and obvious mispricings to exploit. The initial odds in particular are the closest reflection of what the bookies believe will happen at the time.