I feel like if you don't have the power to make Frazier humble you ain't gonna beat him, it won't be easy but I see Frazier winning a decision and Larry getting worn down as the fight goes on as while he may land plenty on Frazier he's not a Foreman or a Tyson, Klitschko, Lewis, Louis etc who all could hurt him. This is kind of similar to the Ali/Frazier/Foreman dynamic where I feel Larry beats Foreman but not Frazier.
Holmes has repeatedly mentioned Frazier hurting him and knocking him down in sparring. I kind of get the impression Holmes doesn't even think he'd win this one. Given that Holmes is far from modest, I'll believe him here and go with Frazier.
I cannot see Holmes taking this, I think like the Holmes Norton fight Larry would get into a brawl with Frazier when his movement is slowed down by Fraziers constant body attack. I think Larry goes the distance but is battered by the fights end. A 9-6 type Frazier win though a late stoppage is a possibility but not likely
Even 1978-1981 Holmes loses a clear UD to FOTC Frazier. That said, I think both Larry's jab and uppercut would give Joe problems, and I wouldn't be surprised if the uppercut caused a flash kd for the latter at some point. 1982 Holmes is doing all he can to stay upright toward the end. An even wider UD for Joe. Joe didn't have the Holmes kryptonite, so I doubt he'd knock him down. Larry usually did pretty good against left hook monsters. The problem would be Joe's tenacity, his amazing perseverance. Holmes could only hold him off so long. But I think he'd absorb Joe's punches well enough to more than survive.
I see a lot of boxing hypothetical matchups which all basically feed into the Ali legend. People love Ali because of his larger than life character, so they overrate him. Ali was slowed down after prison being off three years when he fought Frazier. He missed what would have been likely his best years. He did have more power though and more ring smarts and moved less. Ali’s best wins were against a questionable Liston and against Foreman which was considered a big upset. So let me preface Holmes vs Frazier with that. Frazier was arguably at his best when he narrowly beat comebacking Ali in the Fight of the Century in 1971. Holmes was at his best between 1980 and 1982. Frazier was a pressure fighter/swarmer with above average heavyweight power. He was not a one punch knockout guy like many on here contend but was more of a wear you down accumulation guy. His style was similar to Dwight Qawi but he didn’t jab as much. He was an excellent body puncher and had excellent stanina. His best punch was the left hook and he rarely jabbed. Other than Ali in the one fight Frazier never beat anyone near peak Holmes caliber. Post comeback Ali did not have a high workrate and Frazier basically outworked him. Holmes was 6’3” and had a huge reach advantage and his best punch was the best jab ever seen in any division. It was fast, hard, diverse and accurate. Holmes punching power is underrated as he had a great right hand and punched with lots of leverage. Holmes holds the record for winning 8 consecutive title defenses by KO. Holmes also would KO guys by hurting them with that big right, often when he had made them an easier target with the jab. holmes was a much more relaxed fighter and a much much better technical boxer than Frazier. Holmes was very hard to hit clean. He was knocked down in his prime only twice, by Shavers and by Snipes and got up to win both of those fights by KO. He had an excellent chin and excellent recuperative powers. Frazier was dropped at his peak by Foreman 6x, Bonavena twice, and a hourneyman fighter named Mike Bruce early on. He was Kayoed by Foreman for his title and in the rematch. Other than Ali he did not fight many of the big guns of the 1970s. He never faced Norton or Shavers or Lyle or Jimmy Young. His best wins outside Ali were Chuvalo, Bonavena and Quarry. A peak Holmes presents a complete package of hand speed, foot speed, power, range, size and boxing iq and heart and determination and ring generalship. Unlike many of the 1960s and 1970s Ali fanboys on here I think this would be a relatively easy match for a prime Larry Holmes who slices him up at range and uses his legs and closes his eyes with that jab. And Frazier was vulnerable to the uppercut and Holmes had a good one. Oh, and the stories about how Frazier used to beat up Holmes in sparring, that was a green Holmes who had just turned pro. He was skinny and hadn’t grown into his body. I once saw footage of a young Mike Tyson circa 1985 sparring with Carl the Truth Williams and Tyson could barely land a punch as Williams was keeping him at bay with that jab. But we saw what happened when they fought when Tyson was at peak. In my opinion from just watching them, Frazier was a very good pressure fighter… not great. Holmes was a master and a complete fighter who held every advantage. Peak Holmes was better than 1970s Ali for sure, and probably better than 1960s Ali. (1960’s Ali was quicker and used his legs better but was also still green at that time.) I see this fight going into about round 8-9-10 with Holmes pitching a virtual shutout but Frazier willing a few comparison rounds that the judges gave him because he did better than in other rounds. Holmes would shut an eye with the jab and stop him in rounds 8-10 or so. People rate Frazier high because they love Ali so much because of his charisma and political significance. But Ali got the benefit of more generous decisions. He should have lost all three fights to Norton, the fight to Shavers and the fight to Jimmy Young. He was knocked down and almost out by Henry Cooper early on and got a generous decision against Doug Jones. He lost many rounds when he fought and his main skill when he got older was letting opponents tire themselves out and then popping them with the big right lead when they were relaxed and tired and not expecting it. It was actually a brilliant strategy to beat big plodders like Lyle and Foreman (Foreman was his best win). But against a measured jabber like Holmes who had unlimited stamina, he would lose on activity (if biased judges weren’t giving him a gift). Older Ali had one of the best chins ever. He could really roll with punches. But he should have lost that title several times.
I don't think Larry thinks he'd win it. When talking about his time working as a sparring partner, he says he was holding his own against Ali without issue, but admits Frazier hurt him regularly, knocked him down regularly. I'll believe him. I think it goes to the cards, probably with Larry being knocked down a time or two along the way. UD Frazier. Just a bad matchup for him. He was great at mid-range and really great at fighting from the outside, but he wasn't a good infighter. He would tie guys up or push an opponent's face while stepping past them to get away from real close quarters when opponents tried. Frazier would be stuck to him like glue. If he could somehow keep it to mid and long range, sure, he could win, but I don't see that happening.
Several posters have mentioned Holmes doesn't hit hard enough to make Frazier back up. That's a problem. The same problem Ali had.
Holmes by late stoppage. He would be Joe into submission with that jab not to mention he has a solid uppercut and right. Joe may do some damage but I don’t see him hurting Larry. I could see Joe really getting some damage done to his face eyes etc… from Larry’s Jab. I don’t think it would be pretty for Joe