Whyte did a pretty good at Times on the back whilst utilising his jab effectively against Rivas. Prime Johnson? He's always been a gatekeeping punch bag (granted durable). Wallin never beaten anyone of note as of yet and has poor in wins over Breazeale and the Polish journeyman. Pianetta - granted I agree with reason.
"whilst utilising his jab effectively against Rivas." Fair point but Rivas is a very small HW, probably below 6' and not especially fleet of foot. He lost 112-115 in Britain and knocked Whyte over. Johnson came to win more frequently in those days, was tougher and more athletic. 2013 marked the end of his best work, prior to that he had beaten some of the weaker Klitschko contenders. This was also 10 years ago and Fury wasn't trying to get him out of there. "Of note" is very subjective. Breazeale was deemed "of note" enough to be given title shots by both Joshua and Wilder. He took AJ 7 rounds in Britain and landed 38 punches, which is far better than the vast majority of AJ's opponents. Wallin schooled Breazeale over 12 in America. We won't have a better idea about Wallin's abilities until the likes of Whyte stop ducking him.
Okey. Well Helenius doesnt have the best stamina so i expected Kownacki aswell to win their first fight. Wilder is not a strong pressure fighter.
Helenius is a beast when on form. Huge, good counterpuncher, massive power in both hands and a solid high guard that can be difficult to penetrate. He also has a track record of keeping his cool under pressure and performing well as an underdog on the road. If Wilder comes into this fight diminished in any way Helenius could spark him Pavlik Taylor style.
It may not be his forte (although he was pretty effective against a backfoot Fury the first time) but it's not Washington's either, or Whyte's. And Wilder drains the opponent's stamina with his omnipresent KO threat on top of the damage he does: it puts constant mental pressure on them and forces them to move excessively. Wilder can keep it long, be conservative and still be winning the stamina battle.
I'm not being critical of Wilder for taking the Helenius fight because I do not expect him to take a serious threat on next after a long lay off and having lost badly in his last 2 fights with Fury. It's totally acceptable for Wilder to take an easier opponent as a come back fight. Stop pretending Helenius is some serious threat, he has a punchers chance but Wilder is superior in every way to Helenius, he's on another level. Helenius would not be a top 3 win for Wilder. The 2 Ortiz wins are better, his wins over Duhaupas and Washington who both beat Helenius are better, even Stiverne the first time is a better win for Wilder than current version of Helenius. You trying to make this out that this is somehow a dangerous opponent actually makes Wilder look bad, I clearly have a higher opinion of Wilder if you think Helenius has anything but a remote punchers chance. I fully expect Wilder to show he's a couple of levels above Helenius and KO him early. Maybe this is true, but he still lossed to Helenius the first time when he was unbeaten and therefore confident. Fact is he was never that good, not even as good as the current old Helenius. And who has Kownacki beaten that was any good? Martin? Szplika? Please a gatekeeper like Chisora has a better resume by far. Fact is Kownacki much like Arreola has a weak resume and Kownacki has never beaten anyone as good as prime Arreola the fact he struggled with a faded version of Arreola to me makes it pretty clear a prime version of Arreola would of beaten him. Again throwing a lot of punches just means Arreola was in shape doesn't mean he was near prime. Ali and Frazier in their 3rd fight threw a huge number of punches two but both at that point were past their best. Never said he was shot, just said he was close to it. Arreola then and now is way past his best. He's gotten himself in better shape which has seen him extend his career a little but to suggest he's anything close to being prime at 38 is beyond the realms of reason. Arreola has had a long career, lost several fights, eaten a lot of punches, he's clearly way past his prime and anyone without an agenda sees that. Styles do make fights but what makes you think he could beat Chisora? Both Kownacki and Chisora like to come forward, difference is Chisora is more durable as you say, also has better defence, is better on the inside too, and is far more crafty and savvy these days. Fact is Chisora's resume craps on Kownacki's he's proven himself a level above Kownacki. Kownacki wouldn't even be a top 3 win for Chisora. Kownacki would make in entertaining but in the end Chisora would make him pay for his lack of defence. While I agree Chisora and Ruiz do not hit as hard as Helenius, they wouldn't need to, because of how easy Kownacki is to hit and eventually they'd probably break him down. I'd argue Whyte's counter left hook is as hard as Helenius' right hand or close to it, if he can drop Parker and KO Chisora who you yourself said has a better chin than Kownacki he can definitely KO Kownacki. His superior engine and volume would not be a problem at all, it would work against him against Chisora. Takam tried taking it too Chisora and Chisora just sat on the ropes, blocking and slipping, picking his shots and eventually walked Takam into a bomb. Kownacki moving better than Ruiz is meaningless when he'd walk right into Ruiz's counters, same with Whyte. I'm sure his pressure would give Whyte some issues at first but again he just walks into a counter and gets KO'ed. Fact is Kownacki has never beaten anyone to suggest he's even on the same level as Chisora, let alone Whyte or Ruiz Jr. These guys have proven themselves against top guys while Kownacki never even got to face the top guys having being beaten by guys a level or 2 at least below the top operators. Christ even Eric Molina at least got a couple of title shots and mixed it with the top guys unlike Kownacki.
Solid points, after watching Kownacki's last 3 fights it's obvious he is a hittable fighter with poor defense ,little power and had nothing for Helenius or any moderately talented heavyweight. I see Helenius's head straight up like a lamp post in a stationary position in this fight and Wilder cranking his right to end it. There is one aspect that could be interesting, if Helenius comes out and attacks Wilder from the get go and lands a hard shot will the demons of doubt emerge from Wilder's already damaged psyche ? What's his punch resistance now?
"his wins over Duhaupas and Washington who both beat Helenius are better" So you are in the school of thought that puts Helenius outside Wilder's top 5 wins. I disagree about Washington, yes he beat Helenius but he got steamrolled by Kownacki and doesn't have Helenius's power, which is among the most important two or three attributes for a fringe contender. Are you of the view that the Helenius who lost almost every round over 8 against that unknown 10-14-3 journeyman in Estonia with 3 sub-6 round defeats to domestic level fighters was the same Helenius who stood up to Kownacki's constant high volume pressure before dusting him in 4? And who kept it together well enough to dominate to a far greater degree 18 months of inactivity later? This seems frankly bizarre to me, the idea that fighters must experience a linear decline with age regardless of any context, especially one as erratic and injury prone as Helenius. "Stop pretending Helenius is some serious threat, he has a punchers chance" He has a bigger punchers chance than most title challengers and given the circumstances that I outlined in the OP, it's inflated further due to many factors. This has to be Wilder's most dangerous non-Fury fight other than Ortiz 1 and Stiverne 1. We'll see what the odds are closer to the fight but this definitely isn't going to be a 10/1 and maybe not even a 5/1. If Helenius is 4/1 that equates to a 20% chance to win, which is not a "remote" outcome at all. Kownacki wasn't good against a tall heavyweight with big power, many HW's do not have those attributes. Andy Ruiz is stubbier than Kownacki, slower of foot, has an inferior output and probably has less power. Arreola also probably carried more power than Ruiz, as does Martin. Ruiz would have been in massive danger of being outworked by Kownacki and he wasn't even proficient at stopping journeymen worse than the washed up Liakhovich he had a close fight with over the full 10. Parker is also the kind of fighter who'd have been very vulnerable seeing as he only barely got the nod against Ruiz in his backyard. He'd get roughed up and outworked by Kownacki and then say he had no problem with the decision going against him. Whyte and Chisora are more dangerous fights but the idea that it's a foregone conclusion that they KO Kownacki is silly considering their stoppage records against opponents above the level of a Gerber or Lewison. "but to suggest he's anything close to being prime at 38 is beyond the realms of reason" The top 5 HW's today average an age of 35+ and Arreola's style aged well: he was never that fast but he still had terrific volume and good durability, along with power, more experience, more skill and more discipline than ever. The Arreola who fought Kownacki and Ruiz was in certain important respects the best Arreola we've ever seen; I for one have never seen him in such good shape or counterpunching on his backfoot, let alone fairly effectively against a fighter as good as Ruiz. As I said earlier in the thread, Kim Collins scored a 100M PB of 9.93 seconds at 40 years old and that's a sport where athletes tend to peak a lot earlier than HW boxing. There is no one size fits all policy and one's "prime" depends a lot on the attributes on the opponent. "Please a gatekeeper like Chisora has a better resume by far." If his 12 losses don't matter then sure, it's a slam dunk for Chisora. He's also unquestionably mentally tougher than Kownacki as he took the losses in his stride. But if prime Kownacki was to fight Whyte 1 or 2, Parker 1 or 2, Kabayel, Pulev 2 or Takam individually on neutral soil, I see him having a good chance in all of those matchups. "Kownacki wouldn't even be a top 3 win for Chisora" Takam and Pulev 2 (both debatable) and...who? Scott? He'd quit against Kownacki too. Journeyman cheque casher Kevin? Come on. "Christ even Eric Molina at least got a couple of title shots" Charles Martin was officially a world champion and Kownacki beat him, along with three world title challengers. Molina challenging for a title twice and taking his standard dive in one of his attempts does not equate to very much. His best career win was a badly faded Adamek in 10, who Kownacki would have steamrolled just as Miller did. Kownacki ran face first into a bad stylistic matchup, was mentally damaged, lost the rematch even more embarrassingly and the opportunity disappeared. Molina was lucky he was around at a time when multiple belt holders were allowed to cherrypick him.
Kownacki a good chance against Whyte, Parker and Pulev? You can't be serious? He just got battered twice by a guy no where near their level in Helenius (who lost every round to Whyte.
Helenius is a tall heavyweight with big power in both hands (Whyte, Parker and Pulev are not) and he was fit and motivated for once. By your logic Helenius should have had no chance against 20-0 Kownacki because he got KO'd by Washington, who Kownacki steamrolled. Szpilka is not as good as Andy Ruiz but judging from the Liakhovich fight and Ruiz's lack of any southpaw experience, Ruiz would likely lose a 10 rounder to prime Szpilka, assuming neutral officiating.
Glass jaw spzilka beat Ruiz? I strongly disagree. Kownacki ducked both AJ and Chisora and has lost three in a row to average HW in Helenius and the poor Turkish guy that lost Ajagba.
Glass jaw Liakhovich almost did and probably would have had he been 3 years younger and 3 KO defeats fresher.
Got an actual source for that? I can't see where Malik says that. You list age and inactivity against Wilder... The fact is Helenius is older lol, and they both fought last on the same exact day lol. Trying to spin that as an edge for Robert somehow, because hes the underdog lol, is a bit ridiculous in my view... but to each their own.
I don't know how but I actually forgot Whyte beat Helenius. I'm a lot less worried about this fight now.
It can be viewed as a potential edge because of momentum. Wilder has been battered in his last two fights, Helenius was the batterer in his. Inactivity and biological age might not have been the best way of articulating that, but Helenius has the better momentum, and despite his age may be the fresher of the two. Wouldn't be surprised if Wilder shows up a total shell of himself, wouldn't be the first time a few beatdowns have totally derailed a fighters career. Helenius on a good night would have always been a dangerous fight for Wilder, it's an even more dangerous fight for him at this stage of his career.
