There's a good chance Canelo will beat Bivol at 168

Most people want to see Bivol destroy Canelo probably due to Canelo's ego, but I don't think thats going to happen. Whatever weight they rematch at Canelo will do better than the first time around and I think he has a good shot to win at 168 because Canelo holds the most cards there.

How can I say that with confidence? Well simply put, look at the facts. Canelo largely lost the first fight because he underestimated Bivol, made no adjustments, as Mike Tyson said he completely abandoned his jab which is a fundamental tool in keeping the bigger guy off you and tried to fight him in a weight class that was out of his league. Bivol was content to play it safe and despite winning, he nearly got a draw because of it.

So what makes me think 168 is where Canelo could make a real difference?

First and foremost, Canelo is used to 168 whereas Bivol is not. Bivol couldn't do serious damage to Canelo the first time around. Bivol at a lower weight will be less of a threat in the power and chin department. His speed might be better though, but then so will Canelo's. His tactic of relying on a jab-style approach wont be nearly as effective this time because Canelo not only knows what to expect, but he also has a pretty solid jab himself as we know from the GGG fights which he'll almost be certain to use to control ring pace and keep Bivol off him. That will also minimize issues with stamina because the sooner Canelo controls the pace, that's the less effort he has to spend trying to set the pace.

As far as the argument goes of Canelo not being the right style to handle Bivol....I disagree.

That was a case of Bivol being the smarter fighter who knew when to engage Canelo, specifically to avoid his counters. As far as physical attributes go, they're in Bivol's favor but not by that much. This isn't a Foreman vs Frazier type fight where there was a true style disadvantage on Frazier's behalf. This is a situation where Canelo could potentially overcome things as he knows what to do to take away Bivol's advantages. Bivol's other big advantage was making use of the jab. It was highly effective the first time because Canelo didn't jab back, but he will this time and he wont be as effective with it.

There are also those who think Bivol will just go 2nd gear and demolish Canelo like Ramirez. Yeah it might seem like he could do that, but the thing is....he won't.

How do we know? Ramirez isn't a counter puncher. Thats why Bivol rushed him because there was no fear of return fire. Ramirez is a volume puncher who can be dangerous when on the offense. Thats why Bivol forced him to play defense. He took away that advantage. Canelo however is a counter puncher and its evident Bivol was wary of that because he refused any prolonged firefight with Canelo so he couldn't get off any counters. He's not going to rush Canelo like with Ramirez because doing that will open him up to big counters which then gives Canelo the advantage.

I think this is going to be a close battle of who is the smarter/more experienced fighter and who simply wants it more. That looks like Canelo to me.

 

Hello Shadow , stupid name for an alt

 

lol

 

trolling trolling

 

Only way Canelo wins is if the weight loss gives Bivol issues or Bivol has a serious injury going into the fight. At this point Bivol has all the physical advantages and knows how to use them.

 

Canelo more likely to struggle with the weight. Drugs will do that.
.

 

I don't think Canelo is the smarter fighter, but there are a lot of good points there.
People don't seem to remember that Canelo is in every single fight just because of the card corruption, even though it happens all the time.
Against someone unlikely to KO him, Canelo always has an excellent chance of winning.
He got dominated and was only a few points down.
So all he has to do is perform slightly better and he can win. If he has a great night and Bivol isn't on fire, he definitely wins.
Why people are so confident Bivol cruises this is strange.
It's like when people thought Usyk would just cruise the AJ rematch and he almost got robbed.
A-side matters.

 

@AngryBirds there may or may not be some truth in what you said but your analysis is severely lacking some other truths. Alvarez looked horrible against Golovkin in their third fight. He looked mediocre at best for the first seven or eight rounds and looked absolutely horrid in the final four rounds. The Canelo of either of the first two Triple G fights would have destroyed the Golovkin of the third fight.

Like many fighters who start early and fight often at younger ages Canelo's shelf life of greatness may be coming to an end a bit early as well. In any event, Bivol will most likely box his way to another easy points victory.

 

Agree 100%.
Before the first fight, I thought Bivol would win at 175 but Canelo would win at 168 as he seems really strong at that weight and has better stamina at that weight.
After the last GGG fight I now think Canelo is getting fu*ked up no matter the weight…
Canelo looked like complete and utter shite in the GGG fight.
It’s the first Canelo fight were I’ve thought all the fights from a really young age are starting to catch up.
I was stunned at how awful he looked.
He better hope Bivol has a real struggle with the weight or he will get battered worse than the first fight.

 

I actually think Canelo is now incapable of dialling it in to this level against a fighter in their prime

 

Bivol is a stylistic nightmare for Clenelo. Only things ginger really has going for him are his custom judges and clenbuterol. If Bivol can't cut safely to 168 then yeah, Saul may have a chance.

 

This is all irrelevant. There's no analysis needed because Canelo's fights at 168lbs are for the most part fixed sparring bullocks. The only relevant question is how much is Bivol willing to take to dive/spar

 

Canelo at this point would have trouble beating Messi much less Bivol.

 

Only way Canelo wins is by ROBBERY.

I don't want to see that fight again, Canelo won one round and it was sufficient.