There's recent precedent (Pereira-Adesanya 3) for a specialist KO’ing a 200+ lbs (on fight night) UFC lineal champion, who was P4P No.2. There's also precedent for a boxer beating a former two-time UFC HW champion in an MMA fight: a 20 lbs overweight and shot beyond belief 48 year old Mercer (who wasn't even a KO artist in his boxing prime) iced the previously un-KO'd 33 year old Sylvia with one punch, in 9 seconds. Let's say the first fight is a boxing match and Wilder (who was able to land big on 6’8 master boxer Fury) KO's a slow and defensively open Ngannou early. In the MMA rematch Wilder would have a huge advantage, with the previously un-KO’d, now 37 year old Ngannou terrified from the opening bell (partly because he wouldn’t want to be humiliated by an MMA neophyte) and carrying some additional physical wear. Ngannou mentally collapsed post-Miocic 1 (a fight where he wasn't even finished) and subsequently fought scared against a less rangy, less athletic, MMA KO artist in Lewis, losing a decision. In an MMA fight Wilder would be wearing 4oz gloves, increasing his already monstrous power and there's no 10 count, so there's a great chance that the fight ends with the first knockdown. Wilder knows that he couldn't afford to let Ngannou wrestle him so he would go for broke early, which is also when fighters are most vulnerable to explosive punchers.
Zero chance. Ngannou, not a good grappler, will quickly go for a takedown and Wilder will be out in some seconds. Has also the chance to cripple him with a single low kick.
1. Did you read my post in full? 2. "Zero chance" is hyperbole, Wilder clearly has "some" chance of landing a KO/KD shot before Ngannou takes him down. The odds would not be say 100/1 or even 10/1, especially if Wilder had KO'd Ngannou early in a boxing match previously.
1. Yes 2. He has zero chance, unless he lands a cross in the first 30 seconds at most, but ok - he has 1% chance (and the same reach as Ngannou for what it matters) The dynamics of an MMA fight is completely different from the one in a boxing match, the latter even significantly differs from a kickboxing one. Wilder barely knows A&B of boxing, has poor boxing technique and footwork, disgraceful legs, while Ngannou has a better foundation as an MMA fighter (he doesn't shine with anything in particular, expect strength, thanks to PEDs in a big way). And boxers are very vulnerable to kicks not only to the legs. I add my (otherwise long) unprofessional experience (in boxing and kyokushin) as a reason to my opinion aside from what I think for both fighters.
Wilder has the same/slightly longer arms than Ngannou but he's also got 3 inches of height and a huge speed advantage. And however poor you believe Wilder's boxing skills to be, he's levels above Ngannou. If he can land big on Fury, you best believe he can land on any MMA fighter, early and clean. Wilder isn't going to just stand in one spot and let Ngannou take him down either; maybe Ngannou rushes him and eats a right hand, maybe Ngannou plays it safe as he did with Lewis and gets KO'd anyway. Or maybe Ngannou avoids/sponges the punch or punches, takes Wilder down and wins easily. We've seen different things happen in these boxer vs MMA fighter matchups. 1% = odds of 100/1 = ludicrous, if this fight happens they won't be anything like that. Check the odds for Fury-Ngannou in a boxing match, which I think is significantly more lopsided. Say Wilder catches Ngannou on the chin, temple or forehead with the 4oz gloves. Does Ngannou stand up to it or does he get knocked down? If the latter (and Ngannou's never felt power remotely like it), it's all but over. If they have the boxing match first then Ngannou goes into the MMA fight with significant mental demons. The fight is all or nothing and inherently chaotic.
Francis has a massive square shape head, he can take a punch enough times from Wilder to know he should just take him down and smash him. It's not going to be like Tim/Mercer scenario, Francis gets hit or wobbled by one straight punch and realizes fast to shoot a takedown and it's over.
There are a lot of guys with massive square shaped heads but I wouldn't bet on many of them taking Wilder's power. Whether a relatively slow and defensively open Ngannou can take a 4oz glove punch from Wilder is unknown. But it's not in doubt that he was deathly afraid of taking one from MMA KO artist Lewis. Wilder would have a good idea how many right hands Ngannou could take from him if they had a boxing match first.
Ngannou said "only boxing" because he knows that a boxing match would be far more lucrative. He'd like to maximise his chances of winning but he wants a big payday a lot more. Wilder says he's happy to do MMA because he knows that Ngannou wants a boxing match with him, at least first. Wilder wants to be perceived as being fearless so he says he's open to "just MMA" knowing that Ngannou doesn't want that, so he can appear brave with zero risk. Ngannou makes out he's been merciful to Wilder, allowing him to "keep his limbs" but that's obviously not his motivation. He's insinuating that if it was a "real fight" or MMA match, Wilder would have no chance against him. But for Ngannou there is risk in an MMA fight against Wilder; Ngannou could potentially get caught with a KD/KO punch before he lands a takedown (as was the case with Mercer-Sylvia) and if that happens, he loses his lineal claim to being the "baddest man on the planet". This would be far more humiliating than losing to Wilder in a boxing match as that's what everyone expects anyway, and beating Wilder in an MMA match wouldn't be seen as all that impressive anyway. Is Ngannou scared to risk losing his lineal UFC HW title to Wilder? Perhaps.
Ngannou let kicks him, closes the distance for a takedown then proceeds to rip his arm off with a kimura
Then Ngannou shouldn't be saying "I only want to do boxing". If Wilder sparks him out early in boxing then he should want to get one back in MMA, if it's so easy.
