Fury vs Usyk - Video Preview & Prediction (POLL added)

Watched it few minutes after you uploaded it. I just wonder how the "usual suspects" will reply to your prediction...

 

Usyk has never even been hurt significantly as a professional, even though fighting against much bigger punchers than Fury (Kronk style or not). He took the best Gassiev or Joshua could offer without any problems. On the other hand, Fury had to throw 150 power punches and needed 11 rounds to stop a zero head movement, basically walking punching bag Wilder. He will never stop Usyk, that much is sure.

And speaking of Fury changing his style: he is 10 years older, slower, heavier, less fit than he was against Cunningham. If a Cunningham, who is not a poor man's but a homeless man's Usyk, can cause trouble to a much younger, lighter, fitter, quicker Fury, Usyk will give him hell. One thing that everybody seems to forget: while Usyk is very much used to fighting bigger guys (Joshua, Joyce, Modugno, Fa, sparring with Wlad, Dychko, Steve Robinson etc.), Fury has never fought anyone remotely similar to Cunningham. There is simply no evidence that he could fare better today, all these years later against a fighter like that, especially since Usyk is ten times the fighter Cunningham ever was. And the last southpaw Fury fought arguably TKOd him a few years ago. Usyk is simply all wrong for Fury as he is like a combination of the best attributes of Cunningham and Wallin, times ten. He is all wrong for Fury in terms of stylistic matchup. This current version of Fury is efficient against plodders with poor balance and movement - but Usyk is special and will make him look like Bambi on ice. The gas tank of Usyk is also something Fury has never experienced. And between his ballooning up to 400 lbs in his late twenties then dropping back to around 270-280 lbs (which is still 25-30 lbs over his ideal weight for the athletic form that would be his best bet against Usyk), complete with his binge eating sessions of burgers and boozing and snorting the gak for much of his adult life, his overall constitution is much worse than that of Usyk who has always been the consummate professional. He simply can't match Usyk in terms of fitness, he won't be able to chase him around for 12 rounds. His best bet is to try to be physical, like you mentioned, and go for a quick KO - but that won't work either because Usyk has a granite chin and his movement is simply too much for Fury.

My prediction: Usyk wins by wide UD (116-112 or 117-111, provided no corruption will be involved in the scoring).

 

Excellent video & analysis Rummy. I see things similiarly to you & favour Fury for the reasons you give, albeit perhaps not quite with the same confidence as you.

Whilst Usyk clearly won both AJ fights, if I were Fury, I'd take encouragement from some of the things I saw, knowing how I compare to AJ.

In their 1st fight AJ tried to utilise his advantages in height & reach to outbox Uysk from range. I felt the fight was compeitive for 8 rounds (5-3 to Usyk or 4-4), until AJ gassed & Usyk swept the final 4 rounds. AJ is a more explosive puncher than Fury, he'd be more dangerous at mid-range against a static opponent, but I think Fury is more difficult to outbox at long range.

Usyk also clearly won their 2nd fight, but there was that 1-round towards the end where AJ had sucess fighting on the front foot & made Usyk look uncomfortable. Usyk came back & hurt AJ the next round, but again, I think Fury is also is more effective at closing the distance and bullying a smaller man on the inside, than AJ.

I rate Usyk as #1 p4p today & likely will do regardless of the result in the Fury fight. His movement is that brilliant, allied with you never know when Fury's previous (and possibly still occassionally current?) lifestyle will catch up with him, means I'm no more confident than 60/40 in picking Fury.

 

I’m personally picking Usyk as I don’t think greedy belly will be able to keep pace. Even a chance he could knock greedy belly out.

 

I have respected Fury for his courage and self belief in the past. That said he is more erratic and obnoxious than ever and his treatment of Usky shows what an ass he can be. I think Usky is a much better fighter and unless Fury lays his obese carcass all over him I don’t see how his over rated twenty punch per round output defeats the better conditioned, far better fighter. Granted he is huge but he’s also fat and used to setting the pace. Of course he’s a real favorite but I hope Usyk uses his speed, brain and conditioning to pull it off.

 

Good video, Rummy! I also think Fury will win.

 

Great video and I'm glad this thread's staying in CLASSIC. Thanks yet again Rummy.

For better or worse, we get to apply our analytical and prognostic skills on an upcoming, REAL-LIFE boxing match (or, at least I hope it still is ).

As I see it as at this time, it's GOOD Big Man vs BETTER Small Man BUT will Uysk's margin of "better" be enough to negate and eclipse the Big Man advantages Fury holds otherwise?

Usyk has the better stamina/fuel tank but given his greater and required mobility, he'll have to burn his fuel at a higher rate than Fury.

We saw in the rematch Joshua enjoy some notable success in going to the less evasive body vs Usyk - though his attention to the body came later in the fight - maybe too little, too late. It would've been more prudent for Joshua to begin laying the foundations for same in the earlier rounds. I would say that Fury would definitely take a leaf from same, but it was in fact Fury that advised Johsua to go to the body prior to the rematch. So, this is a strategy already identified by Tyson and will likely be accented on.

By the same token, the Joshua rematch also showed us perhaps the best exemplification of the quality of Usyk's chin - the man will not fold under a decent shot or two from a much bigger opponent even when that man has a notable punch - though of course he doesn't want to take too many even from Fury - the accumulative effect will take its toll.

Then there is Uysk's own power vs Tyson's chin. It would seem that Usyk isn't going to necessarily seriously hurt Fury with a random punch or abbreviated flurry, at least in the early going, before potential accumulative effect can set in. But this could be a factor that many oversight or, at least, a variable that can't be reliably fixed until the fight itself beings to unpack. Could be quite a game changer - many fights have strayed well from forecast when the potential effect of one guy's power has been underrated.

The ref. is oh so important for this fight. Will he keep it open and clean, or will he allow Fury to lean, maul etc? Open and clean will pave the way for and isolate Usky's greater boxing abilities - and it would also tap Fury's fuel tank more heavily - because when he leans and mauls, it doesn't just tire the opponent, but it allows Fury to rest also. Will the ref mentally perceive as it a David vs Goliath scenario and give David a leg up?

I see a very close fight, at least for the greater part of the match - with the possibility of either man pulling ahead in the last 2-3 rounds. It might come down to the all-important intangibles as to who pushes through for the win - but as the vid illustrated, Usyk and Fury are somewhat on par in respect of the relevant tangibles - will, determination, heart, etc.

 

No way Rum, your vid was perfectly bang on as is. Really looking forward to this one - I hope it delivers.

 

Another Dynamite video Rummy. Thanks for the effort and contribution to this site. I say the man that enters the ring with the larger Rosary around their neck wins lol. In all seriousness I expect Usyk to make Fury look bad early on, the left hand will find a home. It’s a fascinating fight both fighters are adaptable. Fury won’t be afraid to gas out like Joshua was, and that could be the difference down the stretch. We’ll see.

 

Keep the opinions coming, I love reading them.

Good that we have this thread in CLASSIC, less chance of flaming than if you wander out and into GENERAL (psyche ward).


Could this be worthy of having a poll also?

 

I feel like with Fury’s range he is going to be able to tag Usyk a little bit on the way out from Usyk’s attacks. And while Fury will look bad being slower of foot and hand and losing the exchanges, his shots (especially his body shots as he is an underrated body puncher) might wear Usyk down late. Fury is going to be able to close the gap quicker than the slow footed, scared to gas out Joshua. Usyk has impeccable defense and is the better athlete but can he keep it going for a full 12 if Fury goes bully mode and chases him down. I would pick Usyk if he had more pop to keep Fury honest but to me it’s a toss up.

 

As usual excellent job Rummy!
You gave a fairly detailed review of each fighter, so I would have included a review of Usyk';s brilliant, 350 + match amateur career.
How this effected his boxing expertise-like Fury's fightin' family background-gives him/them much of the superior in ring intelligence.

It cannot be overstated how much clean, fair officiating can effect the outcome of this fight.
Without it while you may be right, it could go either way.
WITH clinching, hugging, pulling downwards...
The way taller, longer, heavier (due only to more body fat & height) Fury almost certainly will win.

Then we will be deprived of a fair fight & legitimate boxing match AND essentially illegitimate means of selecting an undisputed HW champion.

Usyk's team should be doing what Joe Frazier's team after the (possibly 133) hugfest of Ali-Frazier 2.
Work very hard behind the scenes to get a proper official to enforce the rules.
WHICH thanks to a couple early warnings to ALi, produced one of the very greatest boxing matches ever in Manilla.

Also consider how since so much of the promotion has become about WWE type Pomp & Pageantry...
...And while usually wary of possible Cruelty, lowering animosity & similar devolvement...
It seems Usyk is replying with a good-natured spirit.

But back on topic: Usyk & company should make the way the bout is handled a MAJOR talking point now.
Extremely public & a moral case: & he has MORE leverage than usual for being the bigger man-effectively-& taking unfairly lower pay with all but one belt & in the Belly of The Beast('s) land.
Pun intended.

I much prefer the decency & maturity & political associations & the underdog by virtue of not being Enormous...
I mean "I am very feel" for Ukraine's heroic champion, A.U.

But to give him a reasonable, literally fightin' chance...
They much in the eyes of public opinion, towards the administrators of the sport, & the single other man on that night to come...

Literally "work the Ref".
But in this case, merely have a legitimate chance to win, through generating a level playing field.

 

Fury by unanimous but maybe close on the cards.