Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán vs. John Ryder

Well we already kinda knew that Ryder needed a KO to win, even if it was happening in his home.

 

He probably could prime-for-prime tbh.

(failing that'd just shoot him)

 

Fight week but I for one am feeling very meh about this.

Maybe for the best, since with lowered expectations it'll feel all the sweeter if the Gorilla shakes up the boxing world ...but, in all probability he won't.

 

Moneylines:

Canelo -1600
Ryder +800

 

I think because Ryder, while he is a gritty and determined competitor with a lot of nice intangibles, just doesn't have the 1-punch KO power to put much faith in him upsetting Canelo, and is a little too familiar & basic for him stylistically. Most of Canelo's struggles that we have seen came against slicksters-cum-speedsters especially but in almost every case master boxers - something Ryder just isn't. He is a very likeable and easy-to-root-for, brave & tough and reasonably heavy-handed somewhat awkward southpaw ham-and-egger - but at day's end a ham-and-egger nonetheless. Canelo's losses and hard nights at the office came when fighting the likes of Floyd Mayweather Jr., Erislandy Lara, GGG, Austin Trout, Jacobs, Bivol, Plant, BJS etc.

I adore Ryder but he isn't at the level of those above skill-wise. If he were a bigger hitter then maybe we could get excited about him forcing an uncomfortable brawl and clipping Álvarez with something in an exchange that'd instantly put his lights out, but I just don't know that he possesses that kind of equalizer.

The one glimmer of hope is that Ryder does like to wreck the body and Canelo has been hurt downstairs a few times...