Joshua looked way too tentative against a much, much less dangerous opponent last time out, so have to make Wilder favourite right now. Joshua has to take the initiative in this one and doesn't look like he has it in him anymore. Would love to be proven wrong, though.
Up to them keep trying to milk their dead careers fighting stiffs for little money or sell out and risk it all for a decent final payday...and always a chance that the winner of Fury/Usyk will fight them. Although it's more likely both Usyk & Fury retire and the belts fracture meaning Wilder & AJ can fight for a belt in 2024 if they want to try to revive themselves.
If they fight soon, and the versions of each I've seen in their last couple of fights show up, I would expect to see Anthony Joshua win a decision (but he has to be careful and smart about it).
I've always believed Joshua would back Wilder up, take away his right hand and KO him early. Joshua himself has said he'd use an aggressive approach. But that was before the Usyk losses and the meltdown after the 2nd Usyk loss. In recent interviews he's made it clear he's no longer the aggressive seek and destroy fighter he was and never will be again, he will no be the out boxer we saw vs Ruiz in the rematch. Which is bonkers as he's never going to outbox Usyk or Fury and if he keeps to his word will never achieve anything more than he already has, it's like he's settled for 3rd place or worse. So if Joshua tries to be the boxer vs Wilder, stays back, allows Wilder to set up that right hand by allowing him to plant his feet instead of constantly backing him up, he probably gets KO'ed. If Fury can't avoid the right hand for 12 rounds then Joshua won't either, it's knock Wilder out or get knocked out.
Essentially my view as well. If AJ goes out there confidently and with the mission to knock Wilder out I believe that he will do it. He's simply a better boxer than Wilder and he will land the big thunder first. Whether Wilder hits harder or not is academic. If AJ lands big first, he's got more than enough calibre in his big guns to put Wilder away. But. But I agree that a tentative AJ trying to outbox Wilder for a points win is just going to give WIlder time to set up his nukes and level AJ. Wilder is too thick to suffer from a lack of confidence. He's already written off the Fury losses as 'bad mojo' or somesuch in his head. He'll come in smoking hot and AJ needs to be ready to match that.
"Joshua said..." Joshua's said he was going to KO Usyk "Kronk-style". He's said it about other opponents too and proceeded to stink the joint out. And they were far less rangy, less powerful, less experienced and less ferocious than Wilder. Joshua isn't difficult to hit compared to Fury, especially not for a taller, longer, faster, more experienced vs 6'5+ opponents Wilder. Joshua has less confidence, less stamina, less heart, less durability, less size, less speed, less agility, less intelligence and less skill than Fury. He's far more predictable than Fury and obviously less experienced vs someone of Wilder's dimensions. The three right hands that Wilder landed on Fury in the first two rounds of the rematch would have landed cleaner on the relatively stiff Joshua, who would have also had less time to react and would have either been hurt or spooked by them. Wilder probably would have landed more than three in the first two rounds on Joshua and he'd have been more prepared for aggressive tactics from Joshua than Fury. Prior to the Usyk losses Joshua was looking very tentative vs Ruiz 2 and Pulev. Ruiz 1 was also very tentative. Joshua hadn't looked "seek and destroy" since the pre-Wlad fights and hasn't stopped anyone early since 2016. But the level of opposition explains that.
Joshua wasn't at all tentative vs Ruiz in the first fight until Ruiz hit him with that shot to the temple and took his legs away. That was the moment that Joshua changed as a fighter. Remember, Joshua had just floored Ruiz with that brilliant combo just before that happened. If Joshua can somehow get back to that same mindset vs Wilder then he stands a chance, but if not, Wilder will spark him out once he lands. It'll just be a matter of time.
If Fury is getting outboxed by Usyk he won't keep trying to box with him. He will use his head as a shield and become the titan. The warrior who finds a way to win. AJ isn't a titan. Even if he tried to be a titan Usyk would have chinned him anyway.
Wilder sends him out on a stretcher within 3 rounds Bad match up for a guy that's afraid to get hit Pre Wlad Aj may have a chance of going in and obliterating wilder, but that guys long gone If I'm honest, I probably would still favour wilder Wilder is limited,but he is big, athletic, has heart and extremely powerful. He also has a nasty streak that likes to throw with bad intentions Wilder will absolutely wreck Aj and if he wants to end it in a round he can, but I think it will go 2 or 3 because it starts slow