2003 Lewis vs 2003 Wlad

Hypothetical: the Sanders and Vitali fights don’t happen and Wlad waits for Lewis in June 2003 instead.

“Lennox Lewis will fight on 8 March against Ukraine's Vitali Klitschko at the Mandalay Bay Casino in Las Vegas – the first of three fights next year (2003) that will end with him back in Las Vegas fighting Vitali's brother, Wladimir, in November.” - “Lewis prepares for Tyson rematch”, 2002

“Question: What is your opinion of the heavyweight division right now?

Lewis: I could be around for a long time if I choose.” - L. Lewis, June 12th 2003

Lewis’s likely thought process going into the Wlad fight:

“I'm the champion, in great form. Last time out I took Tyson’s soul. A few years ago Klitschko got stopped by a journeyman who ate all his punches. Manny’s overrating this kid; so what if he won his gold medal at 20? He's not on my level.”

“I'm ready to fight Lewis.” - W. Klitschko, 2002

“Wladimir Klitschko has a great chance of beating Lennox Lewis.” - mutual opponent R. Mercer, 2002

“What will the critics say if Wladimir Klitschko destroys Lewis?” - M. Kellerman, 2002

“Wladimir is definitely more powerful (than Lewis), with both hands. If it had been Wladimir in there when his brother fought Lennox Lewis, I think he would have dropped Lennox Lewis. I honestly do.” - mutual opponent P. Jackson, 2004

“Best puncher I fought? Wladimir Klitschko. He was a bigger and stronger guy. I really didn’t know him so when he hit me I was like, ‘Damn, where did he come from?’ I was in shape and he was just a powerful dude, his jab and everything, very heavy-handed, more than Lewis.” - R. Mercer, 2019

“My man (Wladimir) is one of the finest athletic specimens ever to pull on the gloves and one of the fastest of all the big men, with his hands and on his feet.” - E. Steward, 2011

“Wlad has the best footwork, co-ordination and balance of any fighter I have ever worked with. He’s the most accurate, single-punch knockout guy I have seen. He has unbelievable one-punch punching power, unlike anybody else I have trained. A guy can be completely fine, not hurt, and Wladimir can put his lights out with one shot, even in sparring with 20 ounce gloves.” - E. Steward, 2012

“Now what Wladimir has told me afterwards when we trained, he said, “When we did the scene, when he was moving around, Lennox was jabbing and moving around, and he would blink his eyes when he would jab”. He said, “I remember that, and that stood out”. I said, “Believe it or not, Lennox did that a lot when he would box”. And Wladimir caught on to that right away. He said, “When he jabbed he would blink his eye a lot”. I said, “Yep”. Lennox didn’t really pick up anything too much on Wladimir, but Wladimir picked up on that about Lennox.” - E. Steward, 2012

“If they had ever fought, and Wladimir had never lost, and Lennox had fought him—it would have been a very, very intriguing fight I would say.” - E. Steward, 2012

- 37 vs 27

- 257 lbs vs 243 lbs

- 33 wins by KO/DQ in 43 fights (77%), 16 in the first 3 rounds (37%) vs 38 wins by KO/DQ in 41 fights (93%), 26 in the first 3 rounds (63%)

- 2 win streak vs 16 win streak

- Wlad was more powerful, athletic, offensively skilled and less injury prone than Vitali (both fought G. Williamson and Byrd), with vast experience sparring Vitali: a skilled athletic super-heavyweight, which Lewis lacked experience against

- Wlad had been observing Lewis and studying his fights since he was a teenager, whereas Lewis would have only regarded Wlad as a potential rival for the previous 32 months (Wlad-Byrd 1) and an imminent threat for just under 12 (Wlad-Mercer)

Considering that Lewis was one-punch KO’d by 24-5 McCall and 8 years boxing experience Rahman, it stands to reason that a fully-focused Wlad would have had a very good chance of replicating their successes. There was an established blueprint to beat Lewis: bomb him out early, whereas a prolonged fight would favour the more mature, experienced Lewis. Therefore the best strategy would be for Wlad to land power punches from the start. Lewis had a far weaker chin than Brewster: if Wlad had landed the rights that Vitali did in the first 2 rounds then it would have been over early for Lewis, who never fought anyone as good or better than himself in terms of athleticism + size + power + offensive skill + intelligence + elite SHW experience.

Assuming Wlad won and a rematch was on the table, would Lewis have taken it?

Lewis would be out for about 8 months, age to 38, carry more wear and have two defeats in his previous four fights. He’d be ridiculed as china-chinned, over the hill and his legacy would be on the line. Wlad would be more confident, mature and experienced going into the rematch, Lewis would be less confident (no Rahman this time).

“If the money’s right I’ll give (Vitali) Klitschko a rematch, bring on his brother too.” - L. Lewis, post-fight interview with Larry Merchant

"Some people said I should have fought (Vitali) Klitschko again, but what for? I beat him and there will always be somebody out there, someone else to fight, but I've created a legacy, so why put it all at risk?" - L. Lewis, 2008

 

I can see why people would pick Lewis based on the fact that in 2003 Wlad lost to Sanders and 2003 Lewis beat Vitali. But Lewis wouldn't have got that version of Wlad, who was fighting a flabby Nate Tubbs and Rahman KO victim as a -2000 favourite, thinking of a potential fight with Lewis in the future. If Lewis had got the Wlad who fought Mercer; out to prove a point and get one over on Lewis, then it's an extremely dangerous fight for Lewis and he didn't have the Brewster chin to survive an early onslaught before Wlad gassed out.

 

If Lewis doesn't take an early right hand from a significantly faster Wlad and get sparked himself.

It's a bit of a fallacious argument as Lewis wouldn't have got the -2000 favourite Wlad. Lewis was a similar favourite vs Rahman 1 but had he been fighting someone he took much more seriously (Tyson, Holyfield etc.) then he very likely wouldn't have got upset that night.

 

Lewis was always vulnerable to one-punch KO's, ate quite a few rights in the first 2 rounds vs Vitali and never fought anyone with Wlad's combination of size, athleticism, power, offensive skill and elite SHW experience. So there's no definitive "would", Steward believed that Wlad was a bigger threat than Vitali for good reason.

 

It's absurd to compare a younger Briggs (best win being a come from behind stoppage over Liakhovich in the 12th, lost to Wilson, Fields, drew with Botha) in terms of size + speed + power + skills + SHW experience to a younger Wlad. They are worlds apart.

There's no "getting rocked a few times in the first 4 rounds" by Wlad if you're Lewis, he didn't have a Brewster chin. It would have been a who lands big first fight, with the younger, quicker Wlad at risk of being dropped at any moment and the heavier, more experienced Lewis at risk of being sparked at any moment.