After watching all of Crawford's and Spence's fights, this is my conclusion.

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by BoxingIQ, Jul 23, 2023.


  1. BoxingIQ

    BoxingIQ Well-Known Member Full Member

    1,949
    899
    Nov 6, 2017
    One thing I've noticed about the boxing community is that the more "flashy" fighter is always favored. Based on the eye test, Crawford's boxing is just "prettier". Crawford mesmerizes you with his beautiful counter-punching and timing while Spence makes you cringe with his relentless pressure and bone-crushing power. But, when you look at both fighters and study who they fought (when they fought them), it is clear that neither guy is really more "skilled" than the other. Crawford is more twitchy, has slightly faster hands and feet, has exceptional timing, and is great at judging distance. Spence has better defense, chin, jab, better in the pocket, better at cutting off the ring, and he seems to have much better stamina (he threw 110 punches in round 9 against Ugas).

    If you were to put a gun to my head, I would favor Spence by SD or late-round stoppage. Here's the issue I have with Crawford, if you compare the resumes of both (including the Kell Brook and Porter fight), it is clear that Spence has fought the better competition. Now, I am not saying that Crawford wouldn't have beaten the same versions of Kell Brook, Porter, Danny Garcia, Mikey Garcia, and Ugas that Crawford the Spence did, I'm just saying we have not seen him fight anyone as good as the version of fighters that Spence has fought.

    Let's look at Crawford's best wins excluding Porter and Brook (I'm excluding these two to prove a point).
    1. Gamboa: Gamboa (the fighter that Crawford said hurt him the most) came up two weight classes and buzzed Crawford. This is not a good sign if you're fighting someone like Spence who is arguably a top 10 puncher in the sport (Top 3 at WW).
    2. Postol: Postol had a terrific win but nothing really special (would've lost to Danny and Ugas at 140). I actually think Josh Taylor did better even though it could be argued that Postol was a better version compared to the Postol that fought Craw
    3. Benvidez: It took Crawford 12 to Stop a one-legged Benavidez (Spence would've taken care of him in 6". Crawford struggled with the length of Benavidez who was literally fighting on one leg. The guy could barely pivot.
    4. Diaz: Diaz was a one-hit wonder who was extremely hyped up.
    5. Horn: Everyone knows that he lost that fight to Manny 9-3. Horn was never anything special and would've gotten battered in the rematch.
    6. Khan: Way past his prime and not the same Khan that was at 140.
    Now, let's look at two common opponents (Porter and Brook).

    Brook: Just being objective, neither guy fought the best version of Brook. Brook went up two weight divisions to fight the Number 1 P4P fighter in GGG and came back down to 147 to fight Spence. Crawford, on the other hand, fought a version of Kell Brook who was past his prime, had three fights at 154, and took the fight at 147 on a 6-week notice (Even Ingles refused to coach him). Since Kell Brook was much fresher at 147 when he fought Spence, you have to say that Spence fought a much better version of Kell Brook.

    Porter: Porter was one foot away from retirement and Kenny Porter admitted that Porter did not train as hard as he did when he fought Spence( If you watch both fights, you can tell). Plus, I had it tied when Crawford fought Porter before the knockdown. With Spence, even before the knockdown, I had it 9-3 for Spence (Porter was missing a lot of shots and Spence put on a defensive masterclass utilizing his jab and shell defense.

    To sum it up, in almost every fight Crawford has had, he had some type of advantage whether it be a huge disparity of skills, power, size...etc, or fighters just simply being past their best.

    Crawford has never faced anyone who possesses the perfect combination of power, fundamentals, jab, defense, and pressure that Spence brings. Had Crawford defeated Manny, Prime Porter, Prime Kell Brook, and Prim Thurman, I would probably give him the edge. But based on how many times he has been hurt and the level of competition, I have to side with Spence in this fight. Plus you are only as good as your recent opponent David Ava was defeated by Mean Machine (who Crawford knocked out) and Spence defeated a top 5 WW in Ugas, who is better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career.

    This fight will probably be similar to Hurd vs Lara, with much more skill and more action-packed. My gut tells me that this fight will be a controversial draw, but my head tells me that Spence is going to win by decision or late stoppage.
     
    Caliboxing, vast, Alo2006 and 9 others like this.
  2. Fogger

    Fogger Father, grandfather and big sports fan. Full Member

    7,890
    12,535
    Aug 9, 2021
    This sentence made me curious. Wouldn't you say this is true of almost all top fighters. The "disparity of skills" part alone sums up most fights in which a great fighter is one of the participants.
     
    Reinhardt and mono like this.
  3. BoxingIQ

    BoxingIQ Well-Known Member Full Member

    1,949
    899
    Nov 6, 2017
    No, my point is every fight Crawford has fought there is an excuse why he has won. With Shawn Porter, Porter was already contemplating retirement and he did so after the defeat. With Brook, Brook had three fights at 154 and took the fight on a 8 week notice (his coach didn't even travel with him). Jose Benavidez was decently competitive on one leg. I'm not even going to mention Horn, Postol, Khan, or DIaz. Every fighter Spence has defeated (when he defeated them) would beat every fighter Crawford has fought at 147. If Crawford had defeated a prime Thurman, Pacquiao (the version that fought Thurman), Virgil, Ennis, I would favor Crawford. But there is so much of a disparity between competition and Spence is a lot more skilled than people give him credit for. Go watch the video I posted about Spence's skills.
     
    DaRealJT and Olu G. Rotimi like this.
  4. elmaldito

    elmaldito Skillz Full Member

    22,277
    6,127
    Jun 11, 2009
    If this fight was at 154 i think spence would have a better chance. People swear since he will outweigh crawford 10lbs fight night its gonna help him when that couldnt be further from the truth. Crawford is an oxe at 147. He is the more natural welterweight. Why do you think this is spences last fight at 147. Not because hes stronger at welter then he would be jr middle ill tell you that. Styles make fights. You guys will find out. Spence will not out stamina crawford at 147. That weight cut will have effect.
     
    Reinhardt, bjl12, pacas and 3 others like this.
  5. African Cobra

    African Cobra The Right Honourable Lord President of the Council banned Full Member

    26,863
    9,785
    May 29, 2007
    Very good analysis.
     
    box33 likes this.
  6. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

    238,011
    228,307
    Nov 23, 2013
    I'm not looking at any of their past performances and comparing their performances and shared opponents, there's no need to. Terence Crawford is the meaner, smarter, faster, heavier handed, more accurate, more elusive fighter, with a superior ring IQ, who makes better adjustments, has quicker reflexes and better footwork, who tends to fight to the level of his opponents. If he doesn't want his opponent to touch him, they won't. If he thinks he can take their power, he will. Because he has that kind of confidence and mean streak. He ends this when he wants to end it. No matter which way you spin it, Swoll Nips is getting knocked the **** out.
     
    bjl12, pacas, heerko koois and 5 others like this.
  7. BoxingIQ

    BoxingIQ Well-Known Member Full Member

    1,949
    899
    Nov 6, 2017
    He has shown that against lesser opposition and what evidence do you have that he is "meaner" than Spence? What evidence do you have that he fights to the level of his opposition (sure because he has fought poorer opposition)/ No he doesn't have a higher IQ. Hearns had everything you stated and look at what Hagler did to him.
     
  8. Lesion of Doom

    Lesion of Doom Boxing Addict Full Member

    4,922
    7,538
    Jan 21, 2015
    I tend to agree with @CST80 but appreciate your thoughts, @BoxingIQ

    I'm predicting Crawford KO because I think the styles matchup favors Crawford. Spence is a lot of things, but he is not elusive defensively. His defense is his offense, and against Crawford I suspect that will be his undoing because Crawford can make him miss and counter with big shots.

    To me, a more favorable style to beat Crawford would be a shorter fighter who could keep the fight on the inside and rip Terrance to the body, or a very tall and rangy opponent with an elite jab. Basically, I think you have to take away Crawford's ability to continually change the distance. Be inside or be outside, but don't get caught hanging out in mid-range.

    So I think what's going to happen is that Spence will be applying pressure and throwing shots and that Crawford will be able to dictate range as usual, and eventually the power and speed will show up and Spence gets stopped. It's certainly possible that Errol will slow the pressure just a little and fight more cautiously, but even then I'm not sold that he carries the punch to hurt Crawford unless he's putting together combos.

    It should be a great fight, in any case, and I expect these guys to bring out the best in each other.
     
    pacas, Vote46, box33 and 5 others like this.
  9. Reppin501

    Reppin501 The People's Champ Full Member

    21,907
    3,240
    Apr 26, 2010
    Both really good at what they do, it depends on who can impose their style on the other. If it’s a chess match, Crawford wins going away. If Spence can back him up and impose his physical advantages he has a great chance. I just think Bud has more paths to victory than Spence even though I think Spence is a great fighter and has all the tools to be even greater.
     
    Raybans, bjl12, pacas and 1 other person like this.
  10. mono

    mono Well-Known Member Full Member

    2,211
    1,396
    May 31, 2013
    “Porter had one foot out the door”. Sure he did. I’m pretty sure he would’ve called for the Spence or Thurman rematch had he won.
     
    bjl12 likes this.
  11. Reg

    Reg Boxing Junkie Full Member

    8,353
    6,873
    Feb 5, 2016
    There's no way Spence beat Porter 9-3. Porter was putting a lot of leather on Spence. There's a reason he won by split decision.
     
    bjl12, pacas and CST80 like this.
  12. miniq

    miniq AJ IS A BODYBUILDING BUM Full Member

    47,235
    26,942
    Oct 23, 2011
    Crawford sucks!

    & Spence will make him suck through a straw after breaking his glass jaw!
     
    pacas likes this.
  13. Grinder

    Grinder Dude, don't call me Dude Full Member

    5,764
    2,447
    Mar 24, 2005
    This fight will answer a lot of questions. Spence has a better resume than Crawford at this moment. The thing I dread, but possibly a likely outcome, is a close or dodgy decision either way Boxers of this quality are going to have close fights but at least get the judges up to the level required.
     
  14. elmaldito

    elmaldito Skillz Full Member

    22,277
    6,127
    Jun 11, 2009
    Both guys blew out porter
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
    BoxingIQ likes this.
  15. JOKER

    JOKER Froat rike butterfry, sting rike MFER! banned Full Member

    16,515
    18,120
    Dec 18, 2019
    One thing is for damn sure...

    Mikey wouldn't have seen the 6th round if he had fought Crawford.
     
    bjl12, slash and CST80 like this.