How likely is Robert Helenius to upset AJ?

How much money will you be dropping on Joshua? The bookies are saying Joshua "only" has a 93.3% chance of victory and a 76.9% chance of getting the KO.

 

Lord hear our prayers
Let this be a Buster / Tyson match

 

"Not sure how much belief he has now"

I doubt it's changed much. Helenius had been previously KO'd by Duhaupas and Washington as a considerable favourite, then went into the Teper and Kownacki fights widely expected to get KO'd and scored KO's himself. He's got nothing to lose (few expect much here from Helenius and many expect Joshua to blast him out early) and a lot to gain if he KO's Joshua.

He's several lbs lighter than he was against Wilder, perhaps indicating that he was more motivated for his most recent camp.

Apparently Helenius performs poorly in sparring and he has sparred Joshua. He's also older and more worn than when Wilder sparked him in 1. He looked very slow in that fight.

So logically he doesn't have much chance. Joshua has never been sparked with one punch in an amateur or pro ring, has always landed some good shots even in defeat and a fresher Helenius has been KO'd multiple times by much less powerful, less skilled and less athletic fighters. But if Joshua is badly diminished mentally and Helenius can land something big early, he could potentially win. Very much an outside chance though.

 

Helenius was decent in his prime a decade ago...0 chance.

 

Joshua will knock him out. Helenius doesn't like getting hit hard, he shells up. This'll be easy.

 

AJ within 3. Think he'll want at least a few rounds, but anything later will draw criticism in comparison with Wilder.

 

Helenius in his prime was down against Sherman Williams just after getting beaten up by Chisora. Wilder knocked him out in round 1 with something that wasn't even a jab.

He has 0 chance against AJ.

 

I think if they fought 50 times, Helenius would win at least 1 of them just based on his right hand. But most likely Joshua is going to stuff him early.

 

Very unlikely. If it happens then AJ is the new David Price and it says more about AJ than Robert. Helenius is very washed and was never very good to begin with.

 

Not likely.

 

Very Un?

 

This. I've never bothered to search the forum, but I'd bet there are threads from around 2011 that accuse both the Klitschko brothers of ducking Helenius!

After he won that very questionable decision over Chisora at the end of 2011 - he suddenly wasn't getting decent fights until that Dauhaupas fight where he got stopped. He's been a gatekeeper & camp body ever since.

 

That Teper KO doesn't mean much. Erkan Teper was cannon fodder once he was off those PEDs.

 

AJ should win earlier rather than later, but maybe not as soon as some people on here think. Round 5 or a little later is my prediction for the KO or stoppage.

 

You're falling into the trap of mistaking this for a legitimate fight rather than a necessary promotional exercise required to build hype for a near-future fight between Wilder and Joshua. Joshua is no longer a prohibitive A-side in any big fight - he needs to equal Wilder's result (1st round KO) to give Hearn maximum leverage in negotiating the purse & split. And I think Helenius is 100% totally on board with helping him deliver the required result.

Joshua by KO 1.