IBF is expected to order Usyk vs. Hrgovic as an immediate mandatory

Not a bad fight at all. Hrgovic beats most.

 

I get a feeling Usyk and his clique are more then happy to fight these undeserving mandatories.

 

Hrgovic is worlds better than Dubois, I don't see many others who deserve a shot more. He's been ducked like crazy is the only reason he doesn't have a better resume.

 

It is indeed by design, but I bet it ain't gonna work out the way they're thinking. Fury is the younger man but not by much, and he's aged his body far worse than Usyk has. He didn't look near as good his last time out against Chisora either, his movement wasn't nearly as good as it was just one fight prior, and I don't believe it was him "fighting to his opponent's level," the man seemed sluggish at times. Nor do I think he was just trying to get rounds in, it was clear from the second or third round on he was trying to get him out of there. I'm withholding final judgement til his next fight but like Usyk, he does appear to be on a slide, and it looks to be a lot harsher for him, as opposed to Usyk's very subtle one.

If my speculation is right, the aging out plan will backfire and will be glorious. I could actually see Usyk scoring a late accumulation TKO in those circumstances.

 

Usyk has sadly started to decline due to age, but he's still miles better than anybody Fury has faced, a select one of which gave a younger and less body abused Fury notable trouble, so I have confidence in him winning should they ever meet. I feel like in retrospect, the Wallin fight will be seen as a preview to the fight with Usyk. Wallin kept the fight competitive for the first half of the fight before badly gassing for the second half. But despite being tired out from rounds 7-11, he still kept Fury very busy and on the move. In the final round Fury got badly buzzed by a left and never recovered from it; after that point he threw significantly less, missed most of what he threw and was getting hit a lot more, but fortunately for him Wallin was still very gassed, so he also missed a lot and what did land didn't have a lot behind it.

All of that against a guy who isn't half the fighter Usyk is, and who was out of gas for half of the fight. Usyk won't have that problem. That's why I believe Usyk could get an accumulation TKO late in the fight; a gassed out Wallin had him badly hurt in round 12, imagine what Usyk can do with his still remarkable tank. Fury has shown great recovery skills against one punch knockdowns, but how he failed to really recover in round 12 against Wallin has me thinking he'd have less success if he's been broken down while having to stay busy. Usyk will certainly keep him busy and get his shots in.

The only part I'm unsure of is them actually meeting

 

The pressure he brings will cause Usyk night mares. Late stoppage on the cards.

 

More rounds will be cut short if Fury is in trouble no doubt just like DDD v Lerena.

 

Scenario 1: Usyk loses to Hrgovic or the Zhang-Joyce 2 winner, Fury no longer has to fight him

Scenario 2: Usyk ages, accumulates more wear and there's more footage of him to study, while adding wins to his record and further building undisputed. And while Usyk is making $6 million to fight Dubois and likely about the same to fight Hrgovic, Fury gets $50 million for Ngannou

The only way this strategy blows up is if Fury loses to Ngannou (or whoever else) or takes serious punishment (possibly self-inflicted), or to a lesser extent if Usyk retires while undefeated. But on paper the Ngannou fight is low risk, low wear and produces nothing much to study, with the opposite true in relative terms for Usyk-Dubois and Usyk-Hrgovic.

Something will have to give eventually in this war of attrition. If the fight doesn't get made sooner or later either one of them will retire, forfeit a belt/belts or be beaten by a contender.

 

Go and watch Hrgovic's recent fights, does that look like a guy who can beat Usyk?

 

Usyk going through three of his mandatories (Dubois, Hrgovic, Joyce or Zhang) would be great enough run at heavyweight to retire. Having a streak of wins including Chisora, Joshua times two, and the aforementioned trio is actually very respectable. Even the DDD win ages well given the fashion in which he dismantled him.

As much as I liked Fury for certain aspects of his persona, I have an extremely easy time believing he would stoop to aging Usyk by pushing him into a gauntlet of hungry, behemoth punchers, then eeking out a win and boasting about it until the coke finally takes its toll. We've already seen him:
a) Pop on boar meat.
b) Knock Cunningham out in a way that should have resulted in his immediate disqualification.
c) Earn a "signature win" over 39 year old Wladimir in an absolute snoozefest of a potshot war, then disappear without giving one of the longest reigning, most dominant champions in the history of the division a rematch (and seeing how fierce Klitschko was in the Joshua fight, it was clear he wanted blood.) Mental issues are an excuse for him faltering, but they are not a reason to go easy on him as far as legacy goes. Hagler and many others dragged themselves through hell to get where they were. Rematch or take on your contenders. Period.
d) Smoke and mirror through his second career. Taking the belt from a dangerous but extremely limited Wilder in what was a promising return of the prodigal son, before staining it with one easy defence (Whyte was shown to be extremely vulnerable at that point, being sparked by Povetkin and all that) and moving on to fight Chisora and the MMA guy. Shame, because I firmly believe he beats 95% of the division. It's just that he seemed to always rely on milking the one big night, not cemeting legacy through consistent will and effort. Compare it to Ali's first career wins (due to the state of the division often againts aged fighters, but that's not a fault of his):

Sonny Liston I and II, Floyd Patterson, Cleveland Williams, George Chuvalo, Ernie Terrell, Karl Mildenberger, Zora Folley, Henry Cooper.. and the list of wins gets absolutely ridiculous during his second career: Bonavena, Quarry I and II, Ellis, Frazier II and III, Norton II and III, Mac and Bob Foster, Shavers, Lyle, Foreman, Young, Bugner I and II, Chuvalo and Patterson II, Mathis.

Beating the hard punching basketball player three times? Who cares. George Foreman (extremely well drilled, killer puncher, granite chin, all-time great ring generalship and long guard, sparring partner of Sonny Liston, trained by Archie Moore and Sandy Saddler) Earnie Shavers (limited, but extremely explosive with solid fundamentals and lethal overhand right tailor made for his short posture; trained by Archie Moore), Ron Lyle (late starter, but a man whose boxing was life's purpose; went through hell and near-death occurances to get to the title shot; extremely powerful punches—dropped George like a sack of potatoes and took massive amount of return fire as well—solid basics, actual inside game and chin granite enough to take on Shavers and Foreman) and last though unfortunately least Mac Foster (if he didn't lose a fight, he won by a knockout: 30W(30KO)) That's four men with four varying styles, rhythms, and habits, all more dangerous than Wilder skill-wise, with comparable dynamite in their gloves.

Insane. He had hiccups and controversial decisions (against Norton; fat as a hog against Jimmy Young), but it's understandable when you are so hell bent on fighting the best.) The next time any weasel promoter tries to mention those names in the same sentence as Fury, he should be publicly flogged.