Was Joyce set up?

Warren wanted Joyce to lose against Dubois and was openly enraged when it didn't happen; the scorecard fix was in but they didn't bank on Dubois getting his eye busted up and having such poor heart. They then gave Dubois a series of “bums” (Dinu, Bryan, Lerena in a quasi-fixed fight) before manoeuvring him to a quick world title shot vs Usyk. Joyce by contrast was third/forth in line and got harder opponents who were either going to add wear (Takam, Parker) or beat him/add huge wear (Zhang). Even Parker was given a good chance of beating Joyce by the oddsmakers. When the damaged Joyce was beaten then (ideally) he would be fed to the 12 years younger and vastly less worn big punching Dubois in a rematch. And Warren had the option to sign Zhang (potentially enabling him to crack the Chinese market) as a precondition of beating Joyce! Zhang being a better heavyweight (more chance of beating Usyk/Joshua: see Usyk-Joyce in the WSB) with far greater commercial potential.

“Soon I will have a new apprentice. One far younger and more powerful.” - Darth Sidious/Frank Warren

Joyce's team is also very questionable. Sam Jones was a big proponent of BOTH Zhang fights. If Joyce is your "friend" then you don’t advise him to take the Zhang rematch because even if he somehow won, he'd have to take insane damage to do it. Salas sent Joyce in with an aggressive gameplan at a relatively light 256 lbs in fight 1 and then as a mover in fight 2 at a clear career heaviest 281 lbs! Make that make sense. Joyce did not want the 2nd fight (he said immediately after Zhang 1 that a rematch was probably a bad idea) but he's a low IQ fighter who was strongarmed into it by a treacherous team. Both Zhang fights were stopped quickly by the officials, although Joyce was very likely going to lose anyway and endure a lot more damage if the fights continued. But the difference is that A-side Dubois was never examined by the doctor after his eye had closed up against Joyce. Nor will there be any official complaints lodged by Warren at the “premature stoppages” of Joyce.

The Zhang fight offered zero benefit: Joyce was already mandatory and he could have fought a much less dangerous opponent in the WBO rankings. Zhang wasn't a hugely lucrative fight (Joyce's rematch purse was 600k), far less than the world title fight that he was mandated for and beating Zhang wasn't going to raise Joyce's status significantly as Zhang was relatively unknown, he'd lost to Hrgovic officially and drew with journeyman Forrest. Notice that no one else in the top 10 has taken a top 10 fight this year; clearly their teams don't regard it as being in their rational self-interest. Zhang was willing to take the Hrgovic and Joyce risks because he was 39+ and had to move fast, which isn't a position that practically anyone else was in.

 

"They saw Zhang Hrgovic and thought that he would land bombs, Joyce would walk through them and gas him out and take him out later on."

There are a lot of guys in the top 15 of the WBO rankings that they could have fought who aren't 6'6 20 stone southpaws that hit like a truck. They must have known based on sparring and past results that Joyce wasn't much better than Hrgovic (if at all) and he's certainly far easier to hit. Even if Joyce had won Zhang was always going to add a lot more wear than a non-puncher like Takam and for no real benefit.

 

"With hindsight I think Warren would have taken him down the WBA route."

Warren was fuming when Joyce beat Dubois, he was desperate for Joyce to lose that fight. He could have taken Joyce down the WBA route after he stopped Dubois but he didn't, he favoured the 12 years younger loser instead.

It all works out well for Warren though. He's got Zhang in his stable as WBO mandatory and he'll look to feed the shopworn Joyce to a now more experienced Dubois in a rematch.

 

Zhang-Hrgovic was 50-50 according to fan scoring but Zhang probably did 70%+ of the damage. This wasn't the Zhang who fought Forrest or whoever. So even if Joyce was a big favourite, why choose an opponent who is going to add so much wear?

They would have known based on sparring that Joyce wasn't better than Hrgovic (who they swerved, preferring the Dubois fight instead, who had been stopped in the gym by Hrgovic), was a lot easier to hit than Hrgovic and that Joyce had major trouble with southpaws.

 

Joyce got washed by Usyk, losing all five rounds clearly. He was hit and miss against them in the amateurs and had only fought one southpaw (2018 Lenroy Thomas: Dave Allen level) in the pros.

 

It was either a health issue or Zhang didn't train for the fight. But many regarded the health claims as an excuse, most were thinking Zhang had 4 rounds of gas in him prior to Hrgovic. Shane McGuigan was even repeating that just before the Joyce rematch, despite the evidence of the Hrgovic and Joyce 1 fights at a more advanced age.

So while it seemed like fine matchmaking for Hrgovic, subsequent evidence from the Hrgovic fight suggested that it was insane matchmaking for Joyce, who was far easier to hit to boot. There was nothing to gain either. Joyce could have fought Wallin instead, who wouldn't have stopped him and was more well known in Britain.

I don't know whether more people think Hrgovic or Zhang won but the fight was close and controversial. Hrgovic had more volume but I'd far rather be Zhang in that fight than Hrgovic. I could see a case for 7 rounds either way or a draw. I suspect that if Zhang had been 30 and Hrgovic 40, Zhang would have got the nod.

 

Joyce had southpaw sparring and several months to prepare for both fights. Even before the Zhang fight was agreed they would have had a good idea about whether he could fight southpaws effectively.