There has never been a better time for Parker to upset Wilder

It's not about Parker's chin (just as it wasn't about Rahman's and Sanders' chins in their big upsets) so much as Wilder's. If Wilder's punch resistance and reflexes have faded significantly with age, wear and inactivity then Parker may land shots that he wouldn't have before and they may do more damage than they would have before.

Parker's chin has been overrated anyway. If it were as good as advertised then he'd have had more of a go against Joshua rather than meekly surrendering his titles. And he wasn't able to get past Whyte in the days when he was relatively very young and fresh. His chin may not even be significantly dented; Joyce needed about 300 punches to get the stoppage according to Compubox.

The mentality Parker brought to the table against Joshua and Whyte also wasn't sufficient. Parker has a better chance with Lee in his corner and nothing to lose.

 

"if he'd been a coward"

I don't think cowardice comes into it but Wilder's first 32 opponents were not as good as top 10 cruisers. The first opponent Wilder fought who was more formidable than nearly all of the cruiserweights was Ortiz in Wilder's 40th fight in 2018.

 

Wilder's stamina was never a problem until he fought Fury. It's a bit like Ortiz, who gassed against Wilder but went 12 with Ruiz no problem at an official 43. Parker isn't going to make Wilder gas easily because he doesn't have the attributes to do so.

 

Ortiz was a lot better than Parker, it's obvious if you read the testimonies of the fighters/teams who blatantly avoided him. Povetkin's promoter for instance said Ortiz was too dangerous, as did Joyce's trainer, Chisora etc. Ortiz also always performed better than Pulev, Joyce, Parker, Chisora and Whyte against mutual opponents prior to the Hammer fight.

But it gets worse: Parker has never stopped an opponent as good as the top KO victims of Stiverne, Duhaupas or Washington. He failed to stop any of his top 11 opponents, including Cojanu and that's a big problem against a fighter who has never lost on points over 5 fights against Fury and Ortiz. I give Parker a better chance of breaking the habit of a lifetime then he had in the past though.

 

Right. But objectively the only fighter with a "prime" excuse in this fight is Wilder. The Parker who lost to AJ or Whyte wouldn't have half the chance vs Wilder that he has now at the end of 2023.