Some good points but I think Wlad under Steward was a very hard man to beat and Usyk while highly skilled, may find it hard to work his way around Klitschko’s excellent jab and clinching. I don’t think you can call Usyk a clear favourite based on their respective bodies of work and even considering the stylistic clash. It’s an interesting one though and you raise some valid points on why Usyk would have given Wlad a lot of trouble.
Spot on. An athlete has three fundamental aspects to its game: 1 - Technical ability 2 - Mental ability 3 - Physical ability
I think wlad is a really bad style match up for usyk. Of course prime wlad with the speed. Wlad had an certified atg jab and will just keep you at bay, if usyk closes the distance then wlad will strangle him to death. Very tough fight for usyk because he has no one punch power to get wlads attention. Wlady on the other hand was an atg puncher. Imo it's the worst style match up for usyk. Of course he could run and try to point but wlad would make it really dirty and usyk would think about circling in and out with the danger of the left hook and right hand from wlad. Imo wlad by clear decision in a boring fight where usyk will try his best but wlad would make it a stinker and bring it home in disgusting fashion.
Version of Wlad from Byrd II thru Povetkin would stop Usyk. I don't really have much doubt in my mind about that.
Very difficult fight to predict. A prime Vlad is significantly better than Joshua in all the ways you'd want a fighter to be against Usyk. His jab was faster, more accurate, more powerful, and he was much harder to counter off of it. His footwork was much better and faster. Klitschko knew how to use his size to the fullest and was a specialist in dealing with guys Usyk's size. The main detriment for Vlad is that he could become too determined to win the chess match before opening up. Constant feinting and movement from Fury gave him a lot of difficulty - something Usyk does in abundance and from an unconventional position. I would give a slight edge to Klitschko provided he's allowed to hold and grapple and lean as he's used to. I think that could take some of the steam out of Usyk and make the Klitschko jab a huge factor. That said, there's an old clip of Vlad, Vitali, and Usyk on a Ukrainian TV show and Usyk politely tells Vlad that once he's done with CW he's coming for him. The two have sparred and it would seem Usyk would have the mental edge going in. 50/50 fight.
Usyk beats 1 good heavy and he wins the poll lol Recency bias at it's finest Wlad on points or late knockout No heavy today can beat the best version of Wlad I think Fury may beat usyk, but do I think he beats a prime Wlad? Hell no
"A prime Vlad is significantly better than Joshua in all the ways you'd want a fighter to be against Usyk." Except perhaps the most important area: bodywork.
The Joshua who fought Wlad had never been past the 7th round, only been a pro for 3.5 years, only had one pro fight where there was meaningful resistance and never had a fight near that magnitude before (title fight, 90,000 at Wembley, mega event, vs a legend). The fact that Wlad let that version of Joshua off the hook is an indictment of him, not a feather in his cap. Ruiz would have demolished Joshua in that situation just as he did 2 years later and Usyk would have schooled him, probably stopping him if Joshua threw caution to the wind.
Usyk’s big advantage here is that he fights 3 minutes a round. Wlad was like Frank Bruno, you hit him right, make him go backwards, fight him inside etc, he panics and it saps all his stamina. And once he’s hurt he’s no Holyfield/Holmes in the fighting instincts. But in Germany the refs allowed that ridiculous grabbing and Wlad was allowed to fight for about a minute of the round. And Wlad was a top amateur who was excellent against southpaws, so tough for Usyk to outbox . If it’s with a Klit ref, I take Wlad by decision in one the most disgustingly boring fights ever where they land hardly anything. If the ref threatens WK with a DQ and Usyk starts pouring it on late like he did against AJ, he might well win.
17 fights won thru Povetkin and 12 wins by knockout probably losing 10 rounds total if you add every round he fought up against everyone total. I think Wlad's resume during that stretch says far more considering the variety he fought than Usyk's (4 fights). Wladimir was never outboxed until the tail end of his career, but a 6'3 CW (albeit the best or 2nd best ever) is gonna do that? That's not how you beat Wlad.
True that Joshua goes to the body more often, but he's not some murderous body puncher. Does he have any body shot knockdowns? Fury an a lot of other top HW's commit to a body attack far more than Joshua. You've got to have skills which Joshua does not to make mixing it up to the body pay dividends. Klitschko wouldn't attack the body, but I don't think he'd need to to have a path to victory.
I think the narrative 'to beat Usyk you must heavily utilise body shots' is overused and implies Usyk cannot be beaten using any other approach, so I strongly agree with your last point. While elusive, Usyk gets hit and against a hard and accurate puncher like Wlad (who imo at his peak was a level above the current crop bar Fury) who also has a substantial size advantage, he could lose a competitive points decision (or even be stopped). I have to lean towards Wlad although the style of Usyk would give him fits.
Usyk would box rings round him. Look what fury did to him and usyk is even more elusive. Would get picked apart he's too slow on his feet.