Why Fury will beat Usyk

Not sure but his jab output has decreased considerably since his elbow surgery and he will not be able to beat Usyk over the distance if he can't use his jab trying to purely box.

Usyk can average 600-700 punches in a fight distance currently which is extremely high.

Fury only averages around 300-400. So nearly half.

Both very accurate.

This is the biggest obstacle fury has to overcome in terms of winning rounds off Usyk

Fury will almost always dictate the pace of a fight and lower it meanwhile Usyk is the opposite when dictating the pace at cruiserweight he'd up the pace of the fight.

Can he dictate the pace on Fury, no. Can he find enough counters shots whilst Fury is coming in and out that nullifies Fury's own offence, yes.

I think the surprise in this fight is Fury's ability to hurt Usyk to the head which hasn't been seen really. It's going to be an eb and flow fight coming to a close decision finish, as long as Usyk can survive which I suspect he will.

Fury's jab isn't a weapon anymore it's just a tool which he often doesn't even bother with

Usyk almost always uses his jab to setup the rest of his punches and remains fundamentally solid.

Everything points towards a Usyk victory but Fury will find a way to win and that's why he's special.

 

Fury threw 481 punches against 2022 Chisora and 700 iirc against 2014 Chisora according to Compubox. He spent a lot more of the third fight grappling Chisora.

 

I've said it myself often that Fury's style has changed and the change in style is worse against a guy like Usyk and better against other types of fighters. Fury used to maximise his size and boxed clever and now he's just trying to steamroll guys.

 

I think fury punches harder than people think when he wants to mate.

But I'll be waiting for the first bell

 

You will be surprised at the way Usyk will be able to wobble Fury with his left hand, just wait and see.

 

This is generally really solid analysis... I disagree that Usyk can't set the pace, but otherwise it's pretty spot on.

The conclusion, as to be expected I guess, is wishful thinking contrary to the rest of your post (as I think you know)

 

Fury will be motivated for this fight, especially after the embarrassment of nearly (and arguably) losing to a debutant. I believe we will see the best version of him since the Wilder rematch and I think he will stop Usyk late or win by a competitive points decision. Usyk is a great fighter, but I think Fury poses a very challenging style for him and I see him struggling to deal with the immense size of Tyson. Either way I’m just excited to finally see this one happen.

 

I think at heavyweight all of these fighters aren't just dealing with different styles but massively different physical attributes. Fury did look like **** vs. N'Gannou but he has another gear to go up and I wouldn't be shocked if N'Gannou KO'd AJ. AJ normally looks emphatic against fighters who can't punch.

Got a feeling Usyk vs. N'Gannou could be the big fight at the end of this and I think Usyk can win that easier than the AJ fight if he keeps his ability that long.

 

Fury's problem vs. N'Gannou was he seemed to expect to go and bowl him over in a few rounds and forced the pace vs a big puncher plus he most likely trained and sparred like a lazy git in preparation. He's turned into a bit of an egotistical believing his own hype the last few years and he got a big reality check.

If he trained properly and boxed with a similar approach to the Klitschko fight he could have won a shut out probably.

I still think AJ is underestimating N'Gannou and he's getting all he can handle here, he'll struggle to recover if he's hurt and I expect N'Gannou to get him with some big shots.

 

Personally I think the fight has draw written all over it probably like the Lewis vs holyfield first fight of one boxer throwing more than the other and it being controversial but I don't doubt for a second it all revolves on the ref.

If the ref is breaking the clinch every time then fury is going to get frustrated and uysk pull away and possibly drop fury. If the ref is OK with the leaning and clinch then we could see a tired drained uysk dropped.

That said I'm really interested to see what happens if fury lands any body shots as uysk moves away similar to what he caught wilder with.

Hopefully both fighters come in with no injuries and we see a great fight.

 

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Tommy bang on

Fury's natural fighting ability will highlight in this fight.

Not a manufactured bum like AJ

Tyson Fury is going to outbox Usyk to prove he is the PERFECT FIGHTING MACHINE

 

The thing with Usyk is that he will connect more than once with picture perfect counters. That will take its toll on Fury. Timing and repeate beats power. Maybe it wont be enough to Finnish Fury off but it will still affect his performance. In the end it will come down to punches landed and how much of an effect they had. Zhang beat Hrgovic on effect but lost on landing.

 

Fury ain't an idiot he isn't going to walk into Usyk

But he will close the distance on Mr.High Guard Ring circle and bully him many a time.

 

I think people are seriously underestimating how Fury will perform in this fight. It will be a long night for Usyk.

 

Fury isn't going to be shocked by a very skilled little man

Usyk will be shocked by a nuanced big man. This ain't Marius Wach or Anthony Pussiwa.