If he could catch fury, then he can catch aj And if you are caught, then whiskers and heart are important.
AJ doesn't generally "fight down to the level of his opponent" - he's not likely to turn up unfit and/or rusty like Fury did in 2 out of the three Wilder fights. It's not impossible he gets caught, but it's unlikely... Much like Lewis-Rahman was unlikely - but not impossible - and the skill level discrepancy is, if anything, bigger in this one. Definitely - but I'm not sure I necessarily agree with your implied assessment... Wilder's chin is much more questionable than Joshua's, while Joshua's heart is much more questionable than Wilder's. When one of the big upsides of heart is the ability to endure accumulation, which Wilder doesn't do, whilst chin is important for taking big power (which both have)... I would prefer a better chin over a bigger heart in this one - where against an Usyk or Fury who aren't anywhere near as powerful, heart is much more important.
The right time to fight AJ Vs. Wilder was when it could have been a fight for the undisputed champion. There was 15 months of time for just such a fight. After that, it doesn't matter if that fight will happen or when it will happen.
Fury hasn't been beaten because of judging and because he is a world class cherry picker. He will never get in the ring with anyone unless he knows they are compromised in some way.
Styles make fights. I still think Wilder sparks AJ unless AJ makes significant improvements on his footwork and defence.
Fury has had two very dubious decisions go his away vs McDermott, Ngannou, and hasn't been consistently fighting top opposition. Quite easy to stay undefeated when your last two opponents are an MMA fighter and a shot Chisora for a 3rd time. And since when has anyone considered AJ great ?
And even more easy when you have only 5 pro hw fights with only one noteworthy opponent on your counter but nevertheless tend to struggle against the same shot chisora and score also a dubious win against dubious .