Could Floyd Patterson replicate Joe Louis title reign?

If he somehow survives an aging but dangerous Schmeling, he probably lasts until he meets Abe Simon, or maybe Buddy Baer.

 

You could make Patterson, or another fighter, a favourite over every Louis opponent in an isolated title defence and still consider it extremely unlikely that they'd replicate Louis's reign.

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.

It's simply a case of understanding probability, which I'll over simplify in the interests of brevity - you could make a fighter a 90% favourite over each of Louis's title defence opponents in one-off fights. That's a heavy favourite for a world title fight. In that instance, the equation to calculate the probability of winning 25 x consecutive title defences is - (9/10)25 - which equals a mere 6%, to the nearest whole number.

You'd need to consider them almost a 98% favourite in each individual fight, before the chances of them replicating Louis's 25 x successful title defence reign exceeded 50%.

There is a reason no other fighter in the c.140-year history of our sport has 25 x successful, consecutive, lineal world title defences. It's because no other fighter in the history of the sport has been as far removed from the rest of the best fighters in the world, as Louis was, for as long as Louis was.

 

I'm not sure he beats Schmeling, Farr, Lewis, Godoy, Conn or Walcott ... Buddy Baer as well ...

 

He might beat all but I’m not sure.

 

Add to that equation the fighter who is considered a 90% chance to win is that much more likely to show up out of shape.