Confidence on Canelo over Crawford.

He definitely does/did not. Spence is very basic

 

Canelos own skill set is definitely being under rated, and basing it off of his bad stylistic match ups with movers who are nothing like Crawford also doesn’t make much sense.

Canelo is probably the best defensive fighter and least hittable Bud has ever faced.

 

Canelos own skill set is definitely being under rated, and basing it off of his bad stylistic match ups with movers who are nothing like Crawford also doesn’t make much sense.

Canelo is probably the best defensive fighter and least hittable Bud has ever faced.

 

Yep, people keep comparing Crawford to mayweather and saying that he just needs to follow that blueprint. They’re going to be very shocked on the night if that’s what they’re expecting to see. Crawford moves/fights nothing like Floyd and it was rare to ever see Floyd get hit clean whereas Crawford gets tagged fairly often in comparison. They’re also expecting him to be able to hit canelo almost at will, but like you said, Canelos defense is brilliant and he’s dangerously quick on the counter from his defensive positions.

I don’t even think the difference in hand speed is going to be as apparent as a lot of Buds supporters are expecting. (Especially not at 168) I think Bud will pose less problems in the early rounds than Khan did. The more I think about the fight, the more I think it’s gonna be a very dominant Canelo win.

 

In a way I am sad because Crawford is going to make Canelo look like the shot fighter with cement he currently is and Beterbiev will never get a chance to fight him either.

Not sure what I prefer more

Canelo getting humbled

Or Canelo getting sent to the canvas multiple times and his corner waving the white towel

 

No.

 

I think Canelo is a bowling ball of a dude at 168. I think he's been taking easy opponents and knows it. He might be able to get all the way up for this one, however. I keep going back and forth in my head who I really think will win.

 

Bud is way more awkward and rangey than Mayweather was, and more unpredictable. Mayweather was harder to hit, though Canelo did manage to catch Mayweather clean throughout the fight, to the body, and upstairs just not enough landed punches to win a decision. He was simply outworked and outclassed by Mayweather. Floyd won that fight by out-jabbing Canelo and controlling the fight with the jab. Canelo was patient vs Mayweather, but too patient to win a decision given how Floyd was fighting. He was also inexperienced at that level, at the time. Not inexperienced generally, but in high profile fights against the level of skill and experience of Mayweather, Canelo was out of his depth.

I just hope that Canelo vs Crawford is a good fight. Boxing really needs this to be a great fight, not a dud like Canelo's last fight. I don't think Bud will run/stall like Charlo or Scull did, at least not to that extent, but you'd expect him to be cautious early. It would just need to heat up in the mid-rounds to deliver for the fans.

When you look at Canelo's last fight, despite Scull's very negative style, he did sort of expose Canelo as not being able to effectively deal with such an elusive style. Canelo refused to engage Scull for a variety of reasons, and had Scull simply done a tad more, like merely stepping in occassionally to land 1 or 2 good punches in a number of rounds, he could have won the decision. It was frustrating to see Scull not engage enough, depsite being somewhat entertaining by his skills, footwork, and his elusive ability.

Canelo skated through that fight by the skin of his teeth, Scull is a very good fighter with a great skillset, and Bud can take a lot of from this. Now Bud doesn't move like Scull, but he can control Canelo from the outside with his jab, win rounds and try to win a decision.

If Bud stays within Canelo's punching range, Canelo should show a willingness to throw more punches, we seen against Berlanga for example Canelo still has a decent work rate when he has someone in front of him willing to fight. Bud is obviously more difficult to hit than Berlanga, but less difficult than Scull. But Bud is more heavy handed than Scull, less defensively elusive but he knows how to set up big punches, and he could catch Canelo with some good shots. Not enough to drop Canelo or hurt him, but enough to wow the judges if Bud can land a handful of good shots in a row, then get out before Canelo can counter.

I think the hand speed will be comparable. Bud doesn't have the handspeed of Mayweather, particularly the version who beat Canelo, who was immensely fast that night and had a ridiculous gas tank. I really wonder how much Bud will use the jab, you would think he would and he did out jab Madrimov, but Madrimov hardly through any jabs and gave away rounds by inactivity.

Canelo often fights in a similar style as Madrimov in the sense that he sometimes gives away rounds, doesn't jab enough, etc. Obviously Canelo has more experience and levels to his game than Madrimov but there are similarities. From Bud's perspective, he has a huge advantage with the jab, but he doesn't typically pepper people with the jab like Mayweather did or others like Spence. It's typically a healthy mix between jabs and throwing awkward right hands and such. But also Bud often takes his time and waits for situation to present themself, similar to Canelo in a way, some of the time, but it will be interesting to see how their styles mesh in the ring.

It will be a challenge for Bud to land body shots, but I don't think Bud can win by just outjabbing him. I think it's those awkward right hands that come from weird angles that could surprise Canelo, and I could see Canelo being the aggressor and Bud countering at times. The problem is Bud doesn't typically use much head movement to avoid Canelo's shots, and he's not really that smooth on his feet, but he does have a knack for knowing when to make quick movements to get out of trouble.

I just think Crawford's rangey frame and awkwardness that will give Canelo trouble. And at this stage Canelo's workrate seems to be a concern. He's shown the ability to out work a recent opponent like Berlanga but was ridiculously low output against Scull. Now granted, Scull was ridiculously negative himself, and the fight was in Saudi early in the morning where maybe he wasn't as motivated to seek as destroy as he would be in the Vegas stadium against a name opponent like Crawford.

We will see, but it is a highly intriguing matchup between arguably the two best boxers of the (post-Mayweather) generation.

We hear a lot about what a Crawford win would do for his legacy, but I also think this is important for Canelo. It would arguably be the biggest win of Canelo's career as well, particularly because the first 2 GGG fights were so close and controversial, many didn't see the rematch as a clear win for Canelo. And GGG I don't think was ranked at high P4P as Crawford is. If you compare GGG and Bud P4P, I think most would concede that Bud has the high level skillset. While both GGG and Bud had suspect resumes you could say when they fought Canelo, both were accomplished, GGG with the long KO streak and MW reign and Bud as two-time Undisputed.

But I think there's an argument that even though Crawford is coming up from lower weights, that Bud due to his frame, reach, and overall skillset, and the fact that he's ranked so high P4P, that he would be a bigger win for Canelo than even GGG, particularly if it's a convincing win. Of course there will be detractors if canelo wins citing the weight difference, but I mean just in terms of P4P ability, I think there's an argument that, outside of Mayweather, that Crawford would be Canelo's most skilled opponent and perhaps a bigger win.

Though I think we can also say that GGG was a bigger and more dangerous puncher than Crawford, more durable also. The question with Crawford is what happens if Canelo takes him into deep waters, how is Crawford going to hold up in the 8th or 10th round if it goes that far?

Canelo himself has been known to gas late in fights, but he didn't gas against Berlanga for example. Against Ryder I thought he sort of took pity on Ryder and didn't push for the KO, but against Bivol (with added weight on him mind you) and against GGG 3 he did seem to gas late.

But can Bud apply the kind of pressure that Bivol put on him, I don't think so. And Bud can't take the first 8 rounds off like GGG did in the 3rd fight and expect to win a decision. So on paper this has the potential to be better fights than those, because Canelo has a point to prove. He's generally expected to win here, though many favor Bud or at least give Bud a decent chance if he fights a smart fight.

I just think this is a treat for the fans. Crawford putting his undefeated record on the line fighting for Undisputed at SMW is epic. The star power in that ring is something that I don't think we've really seen this century. I mean, Canelo and Mayweather on paper, but Canelo wasn't a household name back then. Of course Usyk and Fury had plenty of star power and other HW fights, but as Max Kellerman pointed out at the presser, these are two guys who over the last 10 years were each considered P4P #1 for a considerable length of time. For them to be matching up for Undisputed is huge and I really hope this fight delivers. Boxing needs this fight to be good. If Crawford runs and stalls all night it will be bad for boxing. I have more confidence in Bud than I did with Scull. Charlo I expected more from him, but I also think he got cold feet for whatever reason. Bud has a different mindset than Charlo and I think he has a point to prove, that he's going to take the fight to Canelo, at least for part of the fight.

I would expect some feel out early rounds, but it would be awesome if they both came out aggressive and started trading in the early rounds. We will see.

 

I am going back and forth as well. I could see the argument that Bud has a unique skillset that will give Canelo problems, the fact that he is so rangey and awkward. On paper he has the attributes to give Canelo problems. On the other hand, Bud's punch resistance could really be tested here, more than he has ever been tested before. He seemed to handle Madrimov's power pretty well, but Bud could be hurt if Canelo catches him in the right way. On the other hand, Bud seems pretty durable for the most part, and he seems surpremely confident that he's going to win here.

Confidence is important, and I want to believe that Bud is coming to win and won't simply come to survive like Charlo or Scull. Saying it is one thing. But Bud is an extraordinary athlete and if anyone can dethrone Canelo maybe it's him.

I think one of the many keys will be how will Crawford handle Canelo's body shots. Due to Crawford's height, if Canelo gets inside, or pins him on the ropes, how does Bud react to a hard Canelo body shot. Bud even alluded to this in one of the pressers when he said long arms could be a positive or a negative, citing the challenge of fighting at close quarters. And even if body shots don't affect Bud much in terms of energy depletion, just Canelo's ability to land eye catching body shots could win him close rounds, especially if Bud is being too cautious and only throwing one punch at a time as he did for much of the Madrimov fight. I don't think Bud will be as hard to find as Scull, for all our sakes I certainly hope not! But Bud is very defensively responsible, so it's not going to turn into a toe to toe war like the Berlanga fight was, which was very entertaining but not maybe as skillful as this would be.

If Canelo is constantly coming forward, if Bud is slowly backing away, that could play in the minds of the judges. But Bud has shown that he often mixes in coming forward and backing away. And I think that Bud's unpredictability is a big factor here. The one thing about Bud, and he's admitted this is that he typically doesn't go into fights with a specific gameplan, he sort of makes it up on the fly. Bud moves in unprecticable and unplanned ways, he doesn't fight in a scripted way like most fights. This is what makes Bud different and perhaps more challenging than anyone Canelo has ever fought. Of course he'll have a gameplan but I just think that unlike many of Canelo's opponents who have a specific plan on what they wanna do, with Bud I don't think he even knows what he's going to do, and this can work to his advantage because this makes it difficult for Canelo to prepare for. I also wonder if Bud will change his stance from orthodox to southpaw.

 

I lost a ton of respect for Mayweather for his hypocrisy after what he (rightly) said about Pacqiuao draining Cotto at a catchweight then proceeding to drain Canelo. I'm glad you brought this up and in the context of Mayweather Canelo, we're in full agreement on this. Both in terms of, yes the catchweight affected Canelo and played a role in the outcome, but that we can also praise Mayweather's performance that night and give credit for that. It was arguably his last great performance. Against Maidana we started to see a clear decline from Mayweather, in speed, accuracy, defensive ability, etc. But against Canelo he was on his game, the handspeed and accuracy at 36 years old was otherworldly, so much so that one could speculate that he had been on some good stuff heading into that, legal or not, he clearly was in incredible shape and well prepared.

I maintain that despite it all, and the fact that this is an unpopular position around here, as is my view of Canelo GGG 1 and 2, Canelo fought quite well against Mayweather, had some success particuarly over the first half of the match and that he took Floyd into deep waters but that Mayweather was just simply on another level that night. He rose to the challenge and put in an incredible performance which desipte the catchweight does deserve a certain amount of credit for that, just not as much as it would have been had he fought him at the normal limit.

I saw your earlier point about how Canelo in GGG 1 and 2 was the best version of Canelo. Since you're bringing it up again here, I will respond to this.

While I agree that obviously the "full strength" Canelo at 160 who fought GGG twice was way better than the drained version who fought Floyd, I am not convinced this was peak Canelo either. I think he was still on his way to reaching his peak, and the 2 GGG fights gave him the confidence to reaching his peak over the coming years. Peak Canelo for me would be the Daniel Jacobs fight where he was near-untouchable that night, everything was flowing, he was schooling Jacobs for most of the fight. The way he made him miss, he was on another level there.

Imagine the version of Canelo who beat Jacobs vs 154/152 lb Mayweather. Mayweather would be up against it. I also thought that Canelo vs Saunders was still prime, near-peak.

As to who was better, who was more peak, the Canelo from GGG 1/2, Jacobs or Saunders, that is very debatable. Canelo was more skillful in GGG 1 than in GGG 2, but in GGG 2 he dished out more punishment, also took more because he stood right in front of GGG.

I take a more nuanced view of Canelo Mayweather and Canelo GGG 1 and 2 in that I don't think Mayweather beat Canelo that wide. I see that as a clear win for Floyd, a hugely impressive win, but a fight that had many competitive rounds in it despite Mayweather being on another level, he was very cautious of Canelo and Canelo's body work and power punching was impressive in spurts.

A better, stronger, not drained Canelo, particularly the MW versions of Canelo who fought GGG and Jacobs, would have given any verison of Mayweather fits which is why he drained him when he did. I think you make some important and interesting points Serge, some of which I have echoed over the years. But I also think that you are slightly overplaying the claim that the best Canelo ever was when he fought GGG the first 2 times. That's certainly arguable, but in my view he was still coming into his own, and he got even better (more skillful, more impressive) after the two fights with GGG, by the time he fought Jacobs, and when he moved up to 168 like against Saunders. I also rate his performance in GGG 1 better than his performance in GGG 2, but this is debatable. I would agree though that it is important to remember how much better Canelo was vs GGG than back when he fought Mayweather. We cannot lose sight of that, because if we do, then we'll have people believing that Mayweather would have his way with GGG (or even a MW or SMW Canelo) in the same way he dispatched him when he did at 152, which is obviously an absurdity!

 

His basic skill sets are better than Canelo’s such as that jab and he is the superior athlete with better stamina.

 

I think it comes down to Canelo having a bigger margin of error. He makes a mistake and gets hit, he can keep going. Crawford most likely will be hurt badly or dropped. Crawford can will 11 rounds, 2 minutes and 50 seconds of the fight and get caught with a big shot and loose.

 

Im not counting out Crawford, Canelo has never seen this type of switch hitting from any fighter before. Crawford could pose big, BIG problems for Canelo in this fight, and the closer it gets the more hyped up I'm getting. ONE THING is for sure, Buds not going to fight scared like Charlo did.